Tuesday, November 16, 2021

Nov 14th - Preview for Cheltenham & Punchestown

 It’s the final day of the November meeting at Cheltenham - whilst they will also be racing at Fontwell, Cork and Punchestown.


It’s Morgiana day at the last named venue - which is the first grade 1 hurdle run this season.

My focus has been mainly on Cheltenham - but I’ll also preview the 2 graded races that are taking place at Punchestown.

As a reminder: any Bests bets will be issued, just after 9:00 tomorrow - with the Matrix bets sent out, around 10:30.


Cheltenham

1:10


The card gets underway with a cracking little novice chase…
There may only be 5 runners - but they have all got a chance.
The market favours the 2 penalised runners: Threeunderthrufive and Does he Know.
They clashed at Chepstow last month and Does he Know came out on top by 5 lengths.
On precisely the same terms, it’s quite hard to make a case for the form being reversed - though the market clearly thinks that Threeunderthrufive is the more progressive.
In a way, that can be justified by the fact that the horse who finished third in the Chepstow race, Honest Vic, was hammered by Threeunderthrufive, at Exeter.
However, that logic does rely on Honest Vic having run to the same level in each race - and I’m not convinced he did…
On hurdling form, Irish raider, Streets of Doyen, can be given a chance.
He finished third in last seasons Albert Bartlett - and fourth in the grade 1 novice at the Aintree Grand National meeting.
That’s good form - and he also has experience over fences.
However, Oscar Elite finished a place ahead of him in both the hurdles races - and if he is ready to do himself justice on his first run of the season - and provided he jumps soundly, he really should beat Streets of Doyen.
Undersupervision is the final runner in the field.
He finished runner up to Do they Know at the October meeting.
He was beaten 12 lengths - and on the same terms, appears to have little chance of reversing the form.
However…
Undersupervision was making his chasing debut that day - and looked sure to give Do They Know a real fight, until he ran through the rail on the run in.
It’s impossible to say which one would have won, if that hadn’t happened - but suffice to say, the bare form doesn’t flatter Undersupervision…

1:45

Another small field race - but another really interesting one…
Yala Enki finished second in the corresponding contest 12 months ago - and off a mark just 1lb higher tomorrow, sets the standard.
He’s a really admirable horse, who can almost be guaranteed to run his race - and if he gets into a rhythm up front, he will be very hard to pass.
However, he’ll be 12 in the new year - and has a marked preference for soft ground - so could be vulnerable…
Empire de Maulde has been installed favourite in the early markets.
He’s a hard one to get a handle on, despite having run 13 times over fences.
All of his races have either been in the North - or during the summer (or both !) - so Cheltenham in November will provide a very different (and sterner) test.
He may be up to it - but then again, he may not…
Go another One comes over from Ireland - but he disappointed me at the October meeting and even from a pound lower mark, I’d struggle to get too enthusiastic about him.
Rockys Treasure was beaten miles on his seasonal debut - and whilst he is in theory, well handicapped (he won off a 2lb higher mark, a year ago), it would be quite hard to support him.
The Mighty Don is likely to be the final runner (I’m expecting Forza Milan to be withdrawn) - and he’s a bit of an enigma !
He has some really good form - and some really rubbish form !
However, a fair chunk of his good form is at Cheltenham and the booking of Niall Houlihan only adds to a potentially attractive handicap mark.
I wouldn’t fancy his chance, if he got into a battle with Yala Enki up the hill - but if that doesn’t happen, he could be a danger to them all.

2:20

Yet another small field contest (the smallest so far !) - but yet another good one !

Just 4 will go to post - but as it includes the first 2 home in last season Champion chase, what the race lacks in numbers, it more than makes up for in quality !

Put the Kettle on won that race - her fourth course win (out of 4 attempts).
She also is very good fresh - so there really don’t appear to be any chinks in her armour.
The only thing is, you just get the feeling that she’s not quite as good as her record suggests - and one day, she’s going to get found out…
In fairness, over-achievement is a rare trait of a race horse (far more tend to be under-achievers !) and it’s all down to her thoroughly admirable attitude (plus very efficient jumping).
She will run her race - there is little doubt on that score.
The question is whether one of her rivals will be good enough to beat her…
Nube Negra was very unlucky not to do so in the Champion chase.
A stumble at the last cost him momentum - and almost certainly more than the half length he was beaten.
He is best when fresh, so the fact he will be making his seasonal debut is a positive - and he still has scope for improvement.
If everything goes right, he should be hard to beat.
Politologue is the veteran of the field - conceding 3 years to all of his rivals.
He too is an admirable horse - and got reward for his consistency, when winning the 2020 Champion chase.
He was a late withdrawal from last seasons race - and then bled at Aintree.
There have to be some question marks over him.
However, he has an amazing record fresh - and you can almost guarantee that Nicholls will have him revved up for tomorrow.
Rouge Vif is the final runner in the race - and he will be making his stable debut for Nicholls.
He looked a revelation when winning at the October meeting last season - but finished behind each of tomorrows rival on his next 3 starts…
Based on those runs, he has little chance.
However, 2 miles on quick ground, first time up, is the perfect scenario for him.
He’s another who could run a massive race - and if he does, he’s unlikely to be far away…

2:55

Having been lulled by 3 small field races - I now get hit with a 20 runner minefield !

A bit like todays Paddy Power chase, the Greatwood hurdle looks a very tough race to solve.
That said, I’m not sure the market has got it quite right, so there could be a few opportunities for ‘value’ wagers..

I’m a little surprised to see that Jesse Evans has been backed in to favouritism - that strikes me as the bookies running scared of an Irish raider !
It’s not that he can’t win - but I wouldn’t be interested in him at 11/2.
It’s a similar story with No Ordinary Joe.
He’s won 2 novice races very easily - but this is a completely different kettle of fish.
Again, I’m not saying he can’t win - but at 11/2, I couldn’t touch him.
West Cork is the most interesting of the market leaders - not least because he is trained by Dan Skelton.
He has shown numerous times, that he can lay out a 2 mile hurdler for a big prize - and that looks to be the case with West Cork.
It’s nearly 2 years since he last ran - but the form of his second to Highway one o two in the Dovecote, looks very strong with hindsight.
He would just sneak on to my short list - but I’d have stronger fancies at bigger prices…
Cornier is one. He looks to have been targeted at this race by connections who won it a few years back with Nietzsche.
He ran well last time in the Welsh Champion hurdle and if he’s come on for that run, he should go close tomorrow.
Galice Macalo is another.
I fancied her on her seasonal debut at Chepstow, when she ran well to finish fourth to Masters Legacy.
She was a bit too keen that day, so I would expect her to do better with the freshness out of her system. I also think that a first time hood is a good move, as that should also help calm her down.
Ballyandy must have a chance - provided he bounces back from a very poor run in the Welsh Champion hurdle.
He showed nothing that day - but as a consequence, was dropped 5lb.
He can now race from a mark of 146 - 8lb lower than when runner up in the race 12 months ago.
Maries Rock is another who I would give a chance.
I thought she ran well last time at Wetherby on her seasonal debut - and if she can build on that, she doesn’t look badly handicapped.
Mount Windsor is the final one worthy of a mention.
He’s the complete outsider of the field, but caught my eye, tanking along in midfield, last time out in the Silver Trophy.
He didn’t get home that day - but is dropped back in trip tomorrow - and with the run under his belt, I could certainly see him out running his odds.

3:30


Back to the small fields for this race - with just the 4 runners. And I don’t have an overly strong view on it either…

I like to Move It, is a short priced favourite, on the back of his win at the October meeting.
He beat Tritonic and Stepney Causeway comprehensively that day - and marked himself down as a high class novice.
Post race, NTD said he was the best novice they’d had since The New One - and whilst NTD is prone to great positivity, I suspect that I like to Move It, is very good.
The unbeaten Washington is second favourite.
He won a couple of bumpers last year - before comfortably taking a novice hurdle at Bangor, first time out this season.
He’s impossible to know how good he is - but he’s clearly quite talented and comes from a stable in top form.
Sonigino makes his UK debut for Paul Nicholls, having won his 2 most recent hurdle races in France.
Again, he is impossible to quantify - but John Hales doesn’t own many poor horses…
Pikar makes up the quartet.
He finished runner up to Knappers Hill on his hurdling debut at Chepstow,
That might be good form, as the winner could be very useful (he won the championship bumper at Aintree last season).
However there is again loads of guesswork required - so it’s hard to think that this will be anything other than a watching race…

4:00

The closing race of the meeting is also likely to be a watching race.
8 will go to post for what is traditionally a very strong bumper - but it’s hard to get a proper handle on many of them.

Timeforatune is unbeaten in a couple of bumpers - and representing strong connections, it’s not surprising to see him installed the early favourite.
However, he only just got home in front last time - and I suspect he doesn’t set an insurmountable standard.
Aucunrisque finished runner up in the bumper at the October meeting - and the winner of that race, Bonttay, followed up this afternoon.
It was clearly quite strong form and he’s likely to give Timeforatune something to think about.
Flying Sara in another who is unbeaten.
She won a couple of bumpers a year apart - though the fact the last of them was 400 days ago, suggests she’s not been easy to train.
She clearly has plenty of ability tho - so in receipt of the mares allowance, couldn’t be dismissed.
Half cases could be made for all of the other runners - but it’s that kind of race.
Doubtless the market close to the off will give some guidance on what’s expected.

Punchestown

12:30


The grade 2 Florida Pearl novice chase, is the first of 2 graded races on a strong Punchestown card.

Run Wild Fred sets the standard - but it’s a standard that should be surpassed by one or two of his rivals.
He finished runner up in both the Thystes and the Irish Grand National, last season - and was second to Cape Gentleman on his return to action last month.
That’s all perfectly creditable form - and he deserves his rating of 145 - but that shouldn’t be good enough to win a grade 2 race.
SIxshooter has been installed the early favourite.
He was a solid 147 rated hurdler last season - and he won on his chasing debut at Galway last month, looking as if he might be even better over fences.
If he has improved, then he will be hard to beat.
In fact, the only one who looks capable of beating him is Vanillier.
He was a runaway winner of last seasons Albert Bartlett at the Cheltenham festival, showing much improved form.
He slightly disappointed on his final start of last season at Punchestown - and again, maybe didn’t run quite as well as might have been hoped on his chasing debut at Down Royal last month.
However, it is possible to excuse both runs - and he should be spot on tomorrow.
The only slight niggle with him is the trip - as I suspect he would prefer an extra 2 furlongs.
That said, he’s not a slow horse, so he may get away with it.
The other 2 runners: Fancy Foundations and Ballyshannon Rose are both reasonable animals - but all things equal, they shouldn’t really be up to troubling the market leaders…

2:05

There may only be 5 runners for this years Morgiana hurdle - but it looks a fascinating clash between team Mullins and team Elliott…

Mullins appears to hold the aces, with the race favourite Echoes in Rain - and the highest rated runner in the race, Sharjah.
It seems crazy that Echoes in Rain is the near even money favourite, when she has a stone to find with Sharjah on adjusted ratings.
However, it simply reflects the esteem in which she is held by her stable.
Her career took off last season, when she learnt to settle - and there really is no telling how good she will turn out to be.
She won the grade 1 novice hurdle at the Punchestown festival on her final start of the season - and Willie Mullins evidently expects her to go on to great things this season.
Sharjah is an absolutely top class hurdler.
He has finished runner up in the last 2 champion hurdles - beaten on both occasions by mares who were receiving 7lb from him.
He won a grade 1 on his seasonal debut 12 months ago - and has a marked preference for decent ground.
Based on form he should be favourite - the fact he isn’t, says plenty about his stablemate…
Despite the strength of the opposition, I’m sure Gordon Elliott will be having a real crack at the prize - and he fields a couple of strong contenders.
Abracadabras came good at Aintree last spring, when upped in trip to 2m4f.
He’s also effective over the minimum - but clearly has the stamina required to stay further.
Zanahiyr is the other Elliott representative.
He’s only 4 - and therefore might be at a slight disadvantage up against more mature rivals.
That said, he was a very good juvenile - and made an excellent impression when winning at Down Royal on his reappearance.
That form shouldn’t be strong enough to win - but I suspect Elliott will get a few pounds of improvement out of him tomorrow.
Darasso completes the field, for Joseph O’Brien.
However, good horse that he is, he will be doing well not to finish last, up against such strong company…


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