There are 3 NH meetings tomorrow, at Sandown, Ffos Las & Navan.
There are some interesting races taking place - but there are no particularly big ones - and on initial inspection, I’m struggling to see any potential bets.
In truth, it’s not easy for me to even decide which races to preview !
The veterans chase at Sandown is the one obvious one - despite only having 7 runners.
There are also two Grade 2s at Navan - but they have even smaller, less competitive fields.
I’ll offer an early view on all 3 - along with a decent novice handicap chase at Sandown - and a similar one at Ffos Las (I do love novice chases !).
In truth, even if I manage to find any bets, I’m a little concerned about whether the markets will be strong enough for me to tip.
However, I’ll look in the morning and advise either way, at 10:00…
Sandown
1:00
There may only be 7 runners in this, but it is still a nice little race.
Fifty Ball has quickly been backed into favouritism in the early market - and I can’t argue with that…
He won a couple of novice handicap hurdles last season, before finishing runner up in the Betfair hurdle.
That’s high class handicap form - and the winner, Soaring Glory, came out and franked it last weekend.
Fifty Balls fitness and ability to jump a fence, have to be taken on trust - but if he’s ready to do himself justice and is able to jump competently, then he is likely to take a bit of beating…
Minella Trump comes down south chasing a five-timer over fences.
He is likely to find this much harder than his previous wins - though his defeat of Pay the Piper on his penultimate outing at Perth, is fair form.
He also has more chasing experience than most of tomorrows rivals - and that should stand him in good stead.
Son of Camas would have a chance, based on his third place to Killer Clown at Kempton, last Christmas.
That’s decent form - and Son of Camas runs off a mark 5lb lower tomorrow.
However, that’s because he disappointed in 2 subsequent chase starts.
He’s had a wind op over the summer - and if that’s had the desired effect, then he should be capable of giving Fifty Ball and Minella Trump a race.
3:15
Whilst I do love my veterans chases - I’ve got to honest and say this is a poor edition…
There are only 7 runners - and 3 of them are 12 year olds (generally older than ideal).
For a £30K race, you’d expect better.
In terms of what’s likely to win - then it’s a tricky one to call.
Vivas ran well, when runner up to Some Chaos in a better veterans chase at Chepstow last month.
Off a 2lb higher mark, he should have every chance tomorrow - but I’d be a bit concerned about him getting up the Sandown hill.
I’d also be concerned about Singlefarmpayment getting up the hill.
He’s never been the most resolute, even if he did win at Ascot last season, off a mark just 2lb lower than he races off tomorrow.
He is probably the best handicapped/most talented runner in the field - but he’s a tough one to support.
Dancing Shadow and Mister Mafia may get into a battle for the lead - and if they do, it won’t help the chance of either.
Wandrin Star has a good record fresh - and isn’t badly handicapped. However the Kim Bailey horses don’t seem to be in top form, just yet.
Maybe that will change…
Gwencily Berbas has been made favourite in the early market - but I think that’s mainly because he has the least negatives to overcome !
In truth, outsider Sub Lieutenant is just as interesting - provided a wind op has had the desired effect.
He ran a couple of good races at Ascot last season, and if he can recapture that level of form, then he will have every chance.
FFos Las
1:15
There’s a really strong field assembled for this race - and whilst it looks a tough one to solve, I’m sure it will be worth watching with an eye to the future.
Up for Parol heads the market on his chasing debut under rules.
He finished third last time in the grade 2 Persian War novice hurdle at Chepstow.
That tends to be a good race - and Up for Parol was backed into second favourite for it.
He is evidently very well thought of - and his effort in the race suggested his reputation is justified.
He runs off a mark of 129 tomorrow - and he could easily be much better than that…
However, even if he is as good as he appears, this race still may not be a formality for him…
Shakem Up’arry was a very useful novice hurdler last season - finishing second in the grade 1 Tolworth hurdle and going off at just 11/1 for the Betfair hurdle.
He beings he chasing career off a mark of 131 - and that looks on the lenient side…
Master Debonair threatened to be a high class novice hurdle a couple of seasons ago, when trained by Colin Tizzard.
He was ultra impressive when winning a grade 2 event at Ascot - but things have gone downhill since then.
He’s now with Harry Fry - and his opening chase mark of 137 is a stone below the rating he was given after winning at Ascot.
He may never have warranted a mark in the 150s - but if he did, he’ll be tough to beat tomorrow.
Dock Road showed huge promise in a couple of novice hurdles last season - and is yet another one of interest on his chasing debut tomorrow.
Zambezi Fix, Eden de Houx and One True King haven’t got the star potential of the other 4.
It’s not impossible that one of them could win - but I’ll be a little surprised if at least one of the main players, doesn’t prove too good for them.
Navan
1:10
The Lismullen hurdle sees a rematch between the first two from last seasons stayers hurdle at the Cheltenham festival.
Flooring Porter comfortably defeated Sire du Berlais that day - as he had when they clashed in the Leopardstown Christmas hurdle.
As Flooring Porter is 3 years younger - even conceding 2lbs to his rival, you’ve got to ask why the tables would be turned…
The 2m4f trip tomorrow will be on the short side for both of them - though Sire de Berlais won the race on his seasonal debut 12 months ago.
However, that was on soft - and I could certainly see him struggling a bit on tomorrows likely quicker ground.
The big positive for him, is that he’s trained by Gordon Elliott - and his horses are in tremendous form.
By contrast, Gavin Cromwells stable is yet to fully hit its stride - and that could be the deciding factor…
Away from the top 2, I could give Sams Profile a real chance if the ground were softer.
He was impressive when winning the Galmoy hurdle at Gowran in January - but then missed Cheltenham because of the relatively quick ground.
Durasso has ticks in the ground, distance and fitness boxes - it’s just a question of whether he is good enough.
On official ratings, he is more than a stone inferior to Flooring Porter - so receiving just 5lb, he would appear to have quite a job on…
2:55
The other grade 2 on the Navan card, is even less competitive !
Only 5 go to post for the Fortria chase - and the top 2 horses, Notebook and Samcro, look different class to their rivals.
In fairness, they have to concede both fitness and a chunk of weight to the other runners - but they really should be up to it.
In reality, this doesn’t even really look a match.
The 2 mile trip is likely to be on the short-side for Samcro - and if Notebook is fully wound up, I would expect him to win.
He won on his seasonal debut 12 months ago - and then ran with credit in 3 grade 1 chases over the minimum trip, before running disappointingly when stepped up to 2m4f on his final outing at Aintree.
His current mark of 160 is warranted - and with conditions likely to be perfect for him, he should be too quick for Samcro,
Samcro is a good horse - if not the world beater that he once threatened to be.
I would expect him to run well tomorrow - but he really needs further than he will get tomorrow.
I would guess that the race is being used as a prep for his main target (possibly the John Durkan chase).
Even in receipt of chunks of weight, the other 3 runners should be outclassed.
Kitty Galore may do best of them, as she is on a bit of an upward curve and could get an uncontested lead.
However, even if that happens, she’s unlikely to do more than just provide a nice tow into the race for the principals.
I think it’s safe to say, I won’t be suggesting any bets in this particular contest !
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