The Winter festival at Fairyhouse steps up a gear tomorrow - in fact up steps up multiple gears !
Whilst there was only one race of note on todays card, there are three grade 1 tomorrow - plus a grade 3 - and a couple of feature handicaps.4 of the races are covered on RTE - and I’ve previewed all of them (I wouldn't be suggesting bets in the 2 other big races).
I really don’t know how strong the markets will be in the morning.
I’ll take a look at 9:00 - and if they are strong enough (at least £20K matched on BF), I issue bets at that time: if they aren’t I’ll delay an hour (and advise accordingly).
Fairyhouse
1:05
The Royal Bond is the first grade 1 of the day - for novice hurdlers…
My Mate Mozzie heads the market, after a 10 length win in the grade 3 For Auction.
He’s clearly a very useful novice - but his winning margin last time flatters him, as his nearest opponent fell at the last - hampering the horse which subsequently finished runner up.
He may be the right favourite - but his price looks on the short side to me…
Gordon Elliott has 2 in the race - and the market slightly prefers Mighty Potter over Three Stripe Life.
The former hacked up on his hurdling debut at Down Royal last month - and could literally be anything.
The latter also won on his hurdling debut - at Fairyhouse at the beginning of the month.
He too would be impossible to assess on the back of just that run - but his fourth in last seasons champion bumper at the Cheltenham festival, suggests he’s very good horse.
The fact that Davy Russell rides him (presumably in preference to Mighty Potter), adds to his appeal…
Impervious is unbeaten in 3 hurdle races - including a grade 3 last time.
As a mare, she receives 7lb from her rivals - and that could make her dangerous.
Uhtred is the most experienced runner in the field - and whilst his form is useful, he’s unlikely to be good enough to win.
The same is probably true of Willie Mullins 3 runners.
That said, Willie is always capable of producing one out of the hat - when you least expect it !
If it happens tomorrow, then I suspect that Arctic Warrior will be the one.
He should have won on his debut for Willie (fell at the second last): and then hacked up next time at Sligo.
On the back of that, he was sent off a very short priced fav for a grade 3 - but was pulled up.
Clearly something was amiss that day - but if Willie has him back to his best, I could certainly see him outrunning his odds.
1:35
The Drinmore is the second grade 1 on the card - for novice chasers
Lifetime Ambition and Gabynako head the early market, on the back of recent wins in novice events.
Both were decent novice hurdlers last season - but have jumped particularly well in their chases this season, suggesting that they may do even better over fences…
Lifetime Ambition was nearly flawless, when making a winning chasing debut at Down Royal.
He made all that day - and just kept on applying pressure to his rivals.
If he does the same tomorrow, then he will prove hard to beat.
Gabynako was narrowly beaten on his chasing debut at Galway - but made amends next time at Fairyhouse.
That too was a strong race - and he won it through sound jumping and relentless galloping.
Again, he deserves his position at the head of the market for tomorrows race.
Beacon Edge was a top class hurdler last season - but he was no match for Lifetime Ambition when he made his chasing debut at Down Royal.
I suspect he needs more of a stamina test than he got that day - and than he will get tomorrow…
Cape Gentleman looked good on his first 2 chase starts - but was then comprehensively put in his place by Riviere D’etel at Punchestown a fortnight ago.
In fairness, he was trying to concede 18lb to the winner that day - and the trip was probably on the short side for him.
He’ll be better suited by tomorrows test - though whether he can jump well enough to trouble the market principals, remains to be seen.
There should be little between Fury Road and Beacon Edge, based on their efforts over hurdles.
Fury Road lost his form completely at the back end of last season - but bounced back when runner up to Gabynako at Fairyhouse.
On that run, he has a definite chance.
It’s therefore quite interesting, that Davy Russell appears to have chosen to ride Grand Paradise in preference to him.
He fell on his chasing debut at Down Royal, in the race won by Lifetime Ambition - and whilst he looked as if he was probably held at the time, that wasn’t definitely the case…
2:05
It’s quite hard to look beyond Coko Beach in this..
He was a really impressive winner of the Thystes in January - and whilst he got a 12lb rating rise for that, I suspect he can defy it…
In his 3 runs since, he’s won a grade 2 - and finished unplaced in the Irish National.
He was a distant fourth to Envoi Allen on his seasonal return at Down Royal - but I suspect that run will have blown away the cobwebs.
He has been allotted top weight of 11st10lb in tomorrows race - so it looks significant that Gordon Elliott has put up a 5lb claimer to reduce the burden.
He looks different class to me - and I’ll be a little surprised if he doesn’t win…
That said, he has a long way to gallop and a lot of fences to jump - so nothing can be taken for granted !
If it all proves too much for him, then The Dabbler looks the one most likely to take advantage.
Coko Beach will have to concede him nearly 2 stone - and that’s a massive ask, over 3m5f.
The Dabble has also been in good form lately: notching a hatrick in his 3 latest runs, at Ballinrobe, Gowran and Galway.
Stones and Roses represents Willie - and could be an improver, sent over a marathon trip for the first time.
He’s not run for nearly a year - but fitness is rarely an issue for one of Willies…
Forza Milan is perhaps the most interesting of the outsiders.
He ran OK in some good races last year - and also performed with credit in an amateur race at Cheltenham last time.
He’s fairly handicapped - whilst the 7lb claim of Gavin Brouder will also help his chance.
2:40
The final grade 1 on the card - the Hattons Grace hurdle
It’ll be great to see Honesysuckle running in this.
She’s the best hurdler in training at the moment - and the fact that she receives the 7lb mares allowance whenever she runs, is just taking the mickey !
2m and 2m4f come the same to her. Assuming she is anywhere near fit (and I can’t see Henry de Bromhead running her if she isn’t) - and granted a modicum of luck - she will win.
However, at 2/5, she’s not a betting proposition - whilst you could only bet against her in hope, rather than expectation…
With his fitness assured, Saldier looks the one most likely to chase her home.
He won the Galway hurdle under top weight, before following up in a grade 3 at Tipperary.
Both of those races were over 2 miles - and whilst tomorrows trip is a step into the unknown, I suspect he’ll cope with it.
Abracadabras will definitely handle the trip - the issue with him is his fitness.
He’s not run since being destroyed by Honeysuckle at the Punchestown festival - and whilst I could see the gap between the pair being closed over tomorrows extra half mile - I struggle to see the form being reversed.
Stormy Island is the most interesting of the outsiders.
She marked her return to Willie Mullins, with a win in a grade 2 at Fairyhouse last spring - and followed that up by taking the mares grade 1 at the Punchestown festival.
That was a good effort - but her official rating still sees her with more than a stone to find with Honeysuckle.
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