Best bets
Aintree1:08
Aquila Sky 0.5pt win 8/1
2:15
Thomas Macdonagh 0.5pt win 8/1 (7/1 should be an absolute minimum)
Matrix bets
Wincanton
2:25
Eglantine du Seuil 1 unit win CEP 9 FP 9
3:00
Cap du Nord 4 units win CEP 6.2 FP 6
Hurricane Harvey 3 units win CEP 6 FP 6
Ofalltheginjoints 1 unit win CEP 9.4 FP 11
Cobra de Mai 2 unit win CEP 13 FP 13
3:35
Belfast Banter 2 units win CEP 10.5 FP 9
Aintree
1:08
Act of God 1 unit win CEP 6 FP 6
2:15
Hogans Height 2 units win CEP 10.5 FP 10
Sir Jack Yeats 1 unit win CEP 15 FP 15
Wincanton
2:25
Eglantine du Seuil 1 unit win CEP 9 FP 9
3:00
Cap du Nord 4 units win CEP 6.2 FP 6
Hurricane Harvey 3 units win CEP 6 FP 6
Ofalltheginjoints 1 unit win CEP 9.4 FP 11
Cobra de Mai 2 unit win CEP 13 FP 13
3:35
Belfast Banter 2 units win CEP 10.5 FP 9
Aintree
1:08
Act of God 1 unit win CEP 6 FP 6
2:15
Hogans Height 2 units win CEP 10.5 FP 10
Sir Jack Yeats 1 unit win CEP 15 FP 15
It was nice to finally get things underway today - and as far
as I could see, the initial 'bet sending/markets not crashing' process went OK
!
The ground at Wincanton is clearly on the quick side - and that has resulted in a number of withdrawals.
In truth, most of my main fancies are at Aintree, so it hasn’t massively affected plans.
Here’s the thinking behind todays bets…
Wincanton
3 NRs (including fav, Bravemansgame), have completely messed up the 1:50.
Mick Pastor will probably beat Captain Tom Cat - but I won’t be betting on it !
I had ear-marked Eglantine de Seuil as a Best bet in the 2:25 - but Paul Nichols comments have put me off !
Apparently she came back lame from her most recent run over fences and is being sent over hurdles as a confidence booster.
I’ll still cover her in the Matrix, to a minimum stake - as I’ll be very irritated if she wins !
However, it’s an extremely open looking race and she doesn’t warrant Best bet status.
Rose of Arcadia strikes me as the most likely winner - but I can resist her at 4/1.
I was hoping to make Cape du Nord a Best bet in the 3:00 at around 11/2.
He’s that price on the exchanges - but the online bookmakers won’t play ball because of the enhanced place terms.
As a consequence, I’ve got to tackle this race via the Matrix !
Cap du Nord is the main fancy - with Hurricane Harvey the second choice.
They are first and second fav but 6.6 and 6 on the exchanges are reasonable prices.
Ofalltheginjoints has been well backed - which is a blow. I can only suggest covering on him at current prices.
Cobra de Mai is a bit better value - tho again, I would have hoped for more.
They are the 4 that I want on side tho - and I reckon there’s at least a 50% chance that one of them will win.
The key is the staking - and getting the best odds (which will be down to you guys !)
Belfast Banter has been a big drifter this morning - and I don’t understand why…
He has a fair bit to make up on the race principals - but he’s an improving horse, so he might be able to bridge the gap.
He’ll love the quick ground - and the race should be run to suit him (a fast pace that he can pounce off).
Sceau Royal is the one to beat - but Belfast Banter worth a small play for the Matrix.
Aintree
I think that plenty can dismissed in the 1:08 - with only 3 or 4 in with a realistic chance of winning.
Of those, I like Aquila Sky best - provided the ground isn’t too soft…
He was progressive over hurdles last season - and his form worked out well.
He also would have gone close over fences on his seasonal debut at Uttoxeter - if he had been able to jump !
Back over hurdles, receiving weight from most of his rivals, he is of definite interest.
Harry Skelton is also an interesting jockey booking - I’m sure he’ll be doing his level best on a relatively rare ride outside ride.
Act of God is the one I fear - particularly on soft ground - but a price of 4/1 has no margin.
He’s worth saving stakes for the Matrix - but nothing more than that…
I was tempted to make Kiltealy Briggs a Best bet in this - but it really should be EW…
He’s up against a lot of unexposed potential improvers - and whilst I’m pretty sure he will run his race, he could easily bump into a better handicapped rival.
I could put him up EW (there should be sufficient liquidity in the place markets on the exchanges) - but I’d feel it would need to be 0.5pt EW - and my confidence doesn't stretch to that !
As a consequence, it’s a race that I will just watch and learn from…
Jamie Snowden has a couple of very strong contenders for the 2:15, in Thomas Macdonagh and Hogans Heights - and I like the former best.
I would prefer it if he wasn’t making his seasonal debut - but the fact that Gavin Sheehan is on board (with Page Fuller on Hogans Height) has persuaded me that he will be fit enough to do himself justice.
He’s a young, improving horses - who I hope will be well suited to the course.
His price is a bit shorter than I expected - and I could see him drifting a little, close to the off.
Hogans Height is worth covering on the Matrix: as too is Sir Jack Yeats.
He has a great record over the course - and whilst he might be more of an EW play, I’m happy to have him onside, win only, as cover for the main bets.
I couldn’t settle on anything in the 2:50.
Espion de Chenet fascinates me - but 4/1 is too short to be taking a risk.
I’m surprised to see Antunes at 10 on the exchanges - he’s quite tempting at that price.
However, I feel that Gunsight Ridge could be a very well handicapped horse (even if he’s running over the wrong trip !) - and the market seems to agree.
Another race to watch and learn from, I think…
I was considering making Summerville Boy a Best bet in the 3:20 - but I’ve resisted.
In terms of form, and conditions, then I think he’s the most likely winner (and therefore value at around 3/1) - but we have to guess on his fitness and that of most of his rivals.
There’s also the issue of his stable form (which isn’t great).
He drifted out to 5.5 on the exchanges earlier - and I’d certainly take a risk at that price - however at 4.5, I’m more inclined to just watch…
The ground at Wincanton is clearly on the quick side - and that has resulted in a number of withdrawals.
In truth, most of my main fancies are at Aintree, so it hasn’t massively affected plans.
Here’s the thinking behind todays bets…
Wincanton
3 NRs (including fav, Bravemansgame), have completely messed up the 1:50.
Mick Pastor will probably beat Captain Tom Cat - but I won’t be betting on it !
I had ear-marked Eglantine de Seuil as a Best bet in the 2:25 - but Paul Nichols comments have put me off !
Apparently she came back lame from her most recent run over fences and is being sent over hurdles as a confidence booster.
I’ll still cover her in the Matrix, to a minimum stake - as I’ll be very irritated if she wins !
However, it’s an extremely open looking race and she doesn’t warrant Best bet status.
Rose of Arcadia strikes me as the most likely winner - but I can resist her at 4/1.
I was hoping to make Cape du Nord a Best bet in the 3:00 at around 11/2.
He’s that price on the exchanges - but the online bookmakers won’t play ball because of the enhanced place terms.
As a consequence, I’ve got to tackle this race via the Matrix !
Cap du Nord is the main fancy - with Hurricane Harvey the second choice.
They are first and second fav but 6.6 and 6 on the exchanges are reasonable prices.
Ofalltheginjoints has been well backed - which is a blow. I can only suggest covering on him at current prices.
Cobra de Mai is a bit better value - tho again, I would have hoped for more.
They are the 4 that I want on side tho - and I reckon there’s at least a 50% chance that one of them will win.
The key is the staking - and getting the best odds (which will be down to you guys !)
Belfast Banter has been a big drifter this morning - and I don’t understand why…
He has a fair bit to make up on the race principals - but he’s an improving horse, so he might be able to bridge the gap.
He’ll love the quick ground - and the race should be run to suit him (a fast pace that he can pounce off).
Sceau Royal is the one to beat - but Belfast Banter worth a small play for the Matrix.
Aintree
I think that plenty can dismissed in the 1:08 - with only 3 or 4 in with a realistic chance of winning.
Of those, I like Aquila Sky best - provided the ground isn’t too soft…
He was progressive over hurdles last season - and his form worked out well.
He also would have gone close over fences on his seasonal debut at Uttoxeter - if he had been able to jump !
Back over hurdles, receiving weight from most of his rivals, he is of definite interest.
Harry Skelton is also an interesting jockey booking - I’m sure he’ll be doing his level best on a relatively rare ride outside ride.
Act of God is the one I fear - particularly on soft ground - but a price of 4/1 has no margin.
He’s worth saving stakes for the Matrix - but nothing more than that…
I was tempted to make Kiltealy Briggs a Best bet in this - but it really should be EW…
He’s up against a lot of unexposed potential improvers - and whilst I’m pretty sure he will run his race, he could easily bump into a better handicapped rival.
I could put him up EW (there should be sufficient liquidity in the place markets on the exchanges) - but I’d feel it would need to be 0.5pt EW - and my confidence doesn't stretch to that !
As a consequence, it’s a race that I will just watch and learn from…
Jamie Snowden has a couple of very strong contenders for the 2:15, in Thomas Macdonagh and Hogans Heights - and I like the former best.
I would prefer it if he wasn’t making his seasonal debut - but the fact that Gavin Sheehan is on board (with Page Fuller on Hogans Height) has persuaded me that he will be fit enough to do himself justice.
He’s a young, improving horses - who I hope will be well suited to the course.
His price is a bit shorter than I expected - and I could see him drifting a little, close to the off.
Hogans Height is worth covering on the Matrix: as too is Sir Jack Yeats.
He has a great record over the course - and whilst he might be more of an EW play, I’m happy to have him onside, win only, as cover for the main bets.
I couldn’t settle on anything in the 2:50.
Espion de Chenet fascinates me - but 4/1 is too short to be taking a risk.
I’m surprised to see Antunes at 10 on the exchanges - he’s quite tempting at that price.
However, I feel that Gunsight Ridge could be a very well handicapped horse (even if he’s running over the wrong trip !) - and the market seems to agree.
Another race to watch and learn from, I think…
I was considering making Summerville Boy a Best bet in the 3:20 - but I’ve resisted.
In terms of form, and conditions, then I think he’s the most likely winner (and therefore value at around 3/1) - but we have to guess on his fitness and that of most of his rivals.
There’s also the issue of his stable form (which isn’t great).
He drifted out to 5.5 on the exchanges earlier - and I’d certainly take a risk at that price - however at 4.5, I’m more inclined to just watch…
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