Tuesday, November 23, 2021

Review of the weekend (Nov 20th-21st)

 The first 3 weekends of the new season have been a bit of a struggle…


There has been a real shortage of suitable races - caused, at least in part, by the prevailing quick ground.

I hate it when it rains over a weekend - but it needs to rain soon, in order to end this situation…

Things were a little better this weekend - but only a little.
I still had to look beyond the main races, to find some bets - and I was also limited to Saturday - along with a single race on Sunday…


Saturday

In order to try and find a few more options for bets, I extended the previews to include 3 races which weren’t being shown on terrestrial TV.

I managed to find Best bets in the couple of them - plus a couple more Best bets in the days two biggest races…

The first Best bet to run, was Furius de Ciergues - and I’m still in shock over what happened !

I fancied him, as a young horse, in good form, who would handle both the quick ground and the extended trip.
I fully expected him to run a big race - and he did just that !

He raced close to the pace throughout - and when he took up the running, entering the home straight, he looked the most likely winner.

However, he then seemed to lose concentration - and was passed by Jersey bean.

That appeared to rekindle his interest - and he got into a battle for supremacy.

The pair jumped the last together - but Furius seemed to have it won, when he went 3 lengths clear, inside the final furlong.
However, his concentration then appeared to go again - and Jersey Bean put in a storming rally and caught him in the shadow of the post !

To say it was gutting, is an under-statement !

There was over £13K matched at 1.01 in the in-running market on Betfair.

In 10 years, I’ve only tipped one horse previously, which traded at 1.01 and lost.

Truly unbelievable…

I guess these things happen - it just would have been nicer (or at least, less unpleasant !) if it had happened half way through the season - and not whilst we were still waiting for out first winning Best bet of the season !

In addition to Furius, I suggested Captain Drake and Eclair Mag for the Matrix - and they both ran well to finish 4th and 6th.
Not that I was paying too much attention to either of them..!

The next Best bet to run, was Our Surprise.

He was the first 1pt bet of the season, so it’s fair to say, I quite fancied him.

That was because I felt the race could be narrowed down to 4 - and he was the one of the 4 that I liked best (and by some margin).

However, he disappointed…

He settled fine in his first time hood - in fact, it seemed to cause him to over-relax !

In truth, I don't think he would have beaten Tommys Oscar, even if he’d been a bit more switched on - but he was probably the second best horse in the race.
I could see him benefiting from a couple more furlongs, next time…

Again, I covered him with an additional selection for the Matrix - but Mackenberg ran a shocker (despite being backed into joint favourite), and finished well beaten…

The third best bet on the day, was Rightplacerightime, in the stayers handicap hurdle.

He was another who was very well backed - more than halving in price from 6/1 at 9:00, to 11/4 at the off.

However, he was never travelling well enough to be competitive - and I suspect needs softer ground.

He plugged on to finish 6th - but was well beaten.

Once again, I covered a couple of additional horses for the Matrix - and this time one of them delivered.

Dans Le Vent may have been a 16/1 chance (BSP 21) - but he travelled strongly through the race - and found plenty after the last.
With hindsight, I wish I’d made him the Best bet - but that’s hindsight for you :)

If the Cap Fits was the other saver.
He led early - but had been passed by the home turn - and was ultimately well beaten.

Bristol de Mai was the final Best bet on the day - in the Betfair chase.

I hoped he might be able to take advantage of any chinks in the armour (fitness) of the favourite, A Plus Tard.

However, he didn’t run well - ballooning a few fences - and looking as if he was still  remembering his last run, in the Grand National.

In truth, even if he had run his race, I very much doubt he would have beaten A Plus Tard.
He travelled and jumped like the top class horse he is - and destroyed a decent field.

It was no surprise to see him promoted to Gold cup favouritism - and, based on this run, it’s going to take an exceptional horse to beat him.

That was it for the Best bets - but there were a couple more for the Matrix.

I sided with Mr Muldoon in the 3 mile handicap chase which closed the Haydock card - but he showed very little and was well beaten.
It was a similar story with Get the Appeal in the mares handicap hurdle at Ascot.
She ran a little better - without ever looking likely to win.

In the other main races on the day: Lostintranslation bounced back to form with a gutsy win at Ascot, over a trip which would have been on the short side.
Hopefully he can have a good season, on the back of this.
Buzz was impressive in taking the Coral hurdle - and looks a live contender for the Stayers hurdle.
Whilst Before Midnight just managed to fend of Amoola Gold in the 2 mile handicap chase - which was a bit of a sickener (another one !) for followers of the Live thread.

Finally, Bravemansgame put in an exemplary round at Haydock - and really did look like a top class horse in the making.
Perhaps he’ll be able to challenge A Plus Tard, next season…


Sunday

There was disappointingly little action of interest on Sunday - with the Troytown at Navan, the only Big race.

I spent quite some time looking at it - but struggled to see much of an angle.

Certainly, there was no Best bet - but I spread 5 units for the Matrix, across 4 horses.

And all 4 ran well, finishing 2nd, 3rd, 5th & 6th
It was consistent picking, if nothing else !

However, the fact that I didn’t manage to include the favourite, Run Wild Fred, meant that it was a losing race…


Another weekend to move quickly on from, I think !

TVB

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