Tuesday, November 23, 2021

Bets/Staking rationale

Matrix bets


Navan

2:50
Farclas 1 unit win CEP 7 FP 7
Mister Fogpatches 1 unit win CEP 11 FP 10
Discordantly 1 unit win CEP 14 FP 13
Tout est Permis 2 units win CEP 34 FP 21


I’ve spent a lot of time looking at the Troytown (as it’s the only big race today, I was able to !).

However, I’ve come to the conclusion that there is no stand out contender…

Run wild Fred, Farclas and Lord Royal are the obvious ones - but they are all single figure prices and therefore minimum value.
Of the 3, I prefer the chance of Farclas. He has top class handicap form, from last season - and could still be improving.
I’ll be surprised if he’s not at least placed.

Mister Fogpatches is the one I kind of like best - though I am fearful that the 3 mile trip will be a bit short.
Again, he’s a good bet to be placed - but a less so, to win.

Discordantly could win - if he’s ready to do himself justice.
He won first time up last season - but today may well be a prep for the Welsh National.

As a consequence, Tout est Permis is probably the most attractive bet.
He won the race 2 years ago - off an 11lb lower mark.
However, he could be a better horse now (he’s still only 8) - and he has a 5lb claimer on board.
His form at the end of last season, tailed off - but he was good at the start of it.
He’s a big price for a horse who definitely has a chance.

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