Best bets
Newbury
12:40
Pic D'Orhy 0.5pt win 5/1 (9/2 is acceptable)
3:35
Slate House 0.5pt win 16/1 (14/1 is acceptable)
Matrix bets
Newbury
1:50
L'Homme Presse 1 unit win CEP 12 FP 9
3:00
Thomas Darby 1 unit win CEP 8.6 FP 8
3:35
Dolphin Square 1 unit win CEP 9 FP 9
The Cob 1 unit win CEP 17 FP 15
Alrightjack 1 unit win CEP 20 FP 17
Newbury
1:50
L'Homme Presse 1 unit win CEP 12 FP 9
3:00
Thomas Darby 1 unit win CEP 8.6 FP 8
3:35
Dolphin Square 1 unit win CEP 9 FP 9
The Cob 1 unit win CEP 17 FP 15
Alrightjack 1 unit win CEP 20 FP 17
The early markets weren’t quite as robust as I would have
liked, this morning…
Maybe it’s not too surprising, as it’s a Friday - but I had hoped for stronger.
With hindsight, I should perhaps have delayed issuing the Best bets until 10:30 - though with so much to do over the next few days, I’d much prefer to keep to my usual timings.
Anyway, hopefully most of you got close to the advised prices - and for those that didn’t, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see prices drift back, as the day progresses.
There’s a bit of rain in the air today (not before time !) - and it looks as if some of it is landing on Newbury.
From what I can tell, it’s not a huge amount, so I wouldn’t expect it to significantly alter the ground…
There are some nice races on the Newbury card - and it wasn’t too difficult to find a few bets.
I settled on a couple of Best bets - plus a few more for the Matrix.
Here’s the rationale…
Newbury
As I said in the preview, I could see any of the 4 runners winning the 12:40.
However, I have a slight preference for Pic D’Orhy - and as he has stubbornly remained the outsider of the field, he’s an obvious bet.
I really liked the way he jumped and travelled at Ffos Las - and whilst this is a stronger race, I’m optimistic that he’ll be up to the challenge.
He made all at Ffos Las - and hopefully Harry Cobden will adopt the same tactics today.
If he does, then I think his rivals may struggle to pass him…
The early betting for the 1:15 has been quite bizarre…
Jonbon opened up at 1/3 - but is now a 5/4 shot !
In theory, that should sound alarm bells - but I honestly think it was just a case of his early price being massively wrong…
I think he’s the most likely race winner - and a price of 6/4 would be about right.
The 3 following him in the betting, can all be given a chance - but the market has now adjusted, so there’s little value left in any of their prices.
It’s therefore just a race to watch…
Boothill is another significant drifter, in the 1:50 - and again, that makes sense.
I suspect he will end up the best horse in the race - but I’m less convinced that todays 2 mile trip is what he wants.
He may get away with it - but he faces 3 or 4 talented rivals, who will take advantage, if he does lack a bit of pace.
Mister Coffey and Fifty Ball are the obvious ones to take him on with - though Solo and L’homme Presse are the value options.
At around 10/1, L’Homme Presse is worth a small play for the Matrix…
I think that Fanion Destruval should win the 2:25 - but I have a couple of concerns which stop me from getting involved with him at 5/2…
Firstly, he’s a relatively small horse, and lumping around 11st12lb could be a challenge - and secondly, he did get a long way out of his ground at Aintree, before finishing like a train.
He may possibly need further than 2m4f - certainly if the pace isn’t strong.
I’m also wary of Phoenix Way, so on balance I think it is probably a race best watched…
I’ve swung all over the place with the Long distance hurdle (3:00).
I was initially massively against Paisley Park - but then I came round to thinking that he’s by far the most likely winner !
I now sit somewhere between the 2 (ie. he has a chance - but the price is about right).
I think Mrs Milner has been over-backed, and I can see her drifting.
Indefatigable, Lisnagar Oscar and Thomas Darby could all be of some interest - at the right price.
Provided the ground remains decent, then Thomas Darby is the one that appeals most.
He’s unexposed over 3 miles - and should be better for his seasonal debut at Wetherby.
At around 8/1, he’s worth a small play for the Matrix.
The 3:35 is the most interesting race of the day - from a betting perspective.
Eyeofthescorpion and One for You, are firming up at the head of the betting - and I’m not too surprised by that.
They should both run well - but neither sets an insurmountable standard and at the prices, I feel they should be taken on.
Slate House is the one I like best.
He could be thrown in off a mark of 137 - and with a pipe opener under his belt, he's definitely worth a risk.
He would have gone very close in the Paddy Power chase off a mark of 147, a couple of seasons back - and subsequently won the grade 1 Kauto star novice chase.
None of his rivals can boast that kind of form - and whilst that was over fences, I see no reason why he can’t run to a similar level over hurdles.
With the Colin Tizzard stable back in good form this season, he’s the best bet in the race.
For the Matrix, it is also worth covering Dolphin Square, Alrightjack and The Cob.
The first named looks sure to run his race - and should be there or thereabouts.
The other 2 are more risky - but a case can be made for both and they are worth having on side at decent prices.
Maybe it’s not too surprising, as it’s a Friday - but I had hoped for stronger.
With hindsight, I should perhaps have delayed issuing the Best bets until 10:30 - though with so much to do over the next few days, I’d much prefer to keep to my usual timings.
Anyway, hopefully most of you got close to the advised prices - and for those that didn’t, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see prices drift back, as the day progresses.
There’s a bit of rain in the air today (not before time !) - and it looks as if some of it is landing on Newbury.
From what I can tell, it’s not a huge amount, so I wouldn’t expect it to significantly alter the ground…
There are some nice races on the Newbury card - and it wasn’t too difficult to find a few bets.
I settled on a couple of Best bets - plus a few more for the Matrix.
Here’s the rationale…
Newbury
As I said in the preview, I could see any of the 4 runners winning the 12:40.
However, I have a slight preference for Pic D’Orhy - and as he has stubbornly remained the outsider of the field, he’s an obvious bet.
I really liked the way he jumped and travelled at Ffos Las - and whilst this is a stronger race, I’m optimistic that he’ll be up to the challenge.
He made all at Ffos Las - and hopefully Harry Cobden will adopt the same tactics today.
If he does, then I think his rivals may struggle to pass him…
The early betting for the 1:15 has been quite bizarre…
Jonbon opened up at 1/3 - but is now a 5/4 shot !
In theory, that should sound alarm bells - but I honestly think it was just a case of his early price being massively wrong…
I think he’s the most likely race winner - and a price of 6/4 would be about right.
The 3 following him in the betting, can all be given a chance - but the market has now adjusted, so there’s little value left in any of their prices.
It’s therefore just a race to watch…
Boothill is another significant drifter, in the 1:50 - and again, that makes sense.
I suspect he will end up the best horse in the race - but I’m less convinced that todays 2 mile trip is what he wants.
He may get away with it - but he faces 3 or 4 talented rivals, who will take advantage, if he does lack a bit of pace.
Mister Coffey and Fifty Ball are the obvious ones to take him on with - though Solo and L’homme Presse are the value options.
At around 10/1, L’Homme Presse is worth a small play for the Matrix…
I think that Fanion Destruval should win the 2:25 - but I have a couple of concerns which stop me from getting involved with him at 5/2…
Firstly, he’s a relatively small horse, and lumping around 11st12lb could be a challenge - and secondly, he did get a long way out of his ground at Aintree, before finishing like a train.
He may possibly need further than 2m4f - certainly if the pace isn’t strong.
I’m also wary of Phoenix Way, so on balance I think it is probably a race best watched…
I’ve swung all over the place with the Long distance hurdle (3:00).
I was initially massively against Paisley Park - but then I came round to thinking that he’s by far the most likely winner !
I now sit somewhere between the 2 (ie. he has a chance - but the price is about right).
I think Mrs Milner has been over-backed, and I can see her drifting.
Indefatigable, Lisnagar Oscar and Thomas Darby could all be of some interest - at the right price.
Provided the ground remains decent, then Thomas Darby is the one that appeals most.
He’s unexposed over 3 miles - and should be better for his seasonal debut at Wetherby.
At around 8/1, he’s worth a small play for the Matrix.
The 3:35 is the most interesting race of the day - from a betting perspective.
Eyeofthescorpion and One for You, are firming up at the head of the betting - and I’m not too surprised by that.
They should both run well - but neither sets an insurmountable standard and at the prices, I feel they should be taken on.
Slate House is the one I like best.
He could be thrown in off a mark of 137 - and with a pipe opener under his belt, he's definitely worth a risk.
He would have gone very close in the Paddy Power chase off a mark of 147, a couple of seasons back - and subsequently won the grade 1 Kauto star novice chase.
None of his rivals can boast that kind of form - and whilst that was over fences, I see no reason why he can’t run to a similar level over hurdles.
With the Colin Tizzard stable back in good form this season, he’s the best bet in the race.
For the Matrix, it is also worth covering Dolphin Square, Alrightjack and The Cob.
The first named looks sure to run his race - and should be there or thereabouts.
The other 2 are more risky - but a case can be made for both and they are worth having on side at decent prices.
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