Day 2 of the Cheltenham November meeting - whilst there is also NH racing at Punchestown, Wetherby and Uttoxeter.
The ground on the opening day looked good to me - and the bit of rain that was falling towards the end of the afternoon, should ensure that it stays the same tomorrow…
The card isn’t brilliant - though it is a fair bit better than todays and I’m pretty confident that I will be able to find a few bets.
I was half tempted to also look at one of the other cards (probably Punchestown) - but there is a lot of racing on Sunday, so it probably makes more sense for me to give myself the best chance of covering that (which means me just focusing on Cheltenham).
I’ll aim to issue any Best bets, just after 9:00 in the morning - with the Matrix bets sent around 10:30…
Cheltenham
12:30
The card opens with a juvenile hurdle - which regular readers will know, is not an area of particular expertise for me !
Magistrato looks very much the one to beat, for Paul Nicholls/Harry Cobden.
He won on his UK debut at Chepstow last month, comfortably beating Rocky Man.
I did wonder if the runner up might reverse the form - as it was his hurdling debut.
However, on re-watching the race, I decided that on precisely the same terms, that was unlikely (Magistrato won easily).
Milton Harris runs a couple in the race - and both appear to have a chance.
Knight Salute was a fair horse on the flat (rated 80) - and is unbeaten in 2 runs over hurdles.
Its hard to know how good he is - but I suspect he’s not as good as Magistrato.
Addosh is the other one that interests me.
He was still going nicely in the Wensleydale hurdle at Wetherby, when he unseated at the third last.
It was too far out to be sure where he would have finished - but that tends to be a strong race, so the fact he was running well in it, suggests he has a fair amount of ability.
1:05
Strictlyadancer won a similar race to this at the October meeting - and looks the one to beat in this.
His winning margin that day was only a length and a half - but he beat 16 rivals and I’m a little surprised that he was only raised 7lb for his efforts.
He’s only 7, so should still have plenty of scope for improvement - and carrying just 10st 1lb, must have a very good chance of following up.
Opposites Attract sits at the other end of the handicap - but that’s because he’s quite a classy horse.
He showed some good form in decent novice events in Ireland last year - and if he’s primed for his reappearance, then he could be up to defying his welter burden.
Another Venture catches the eye on his debut for Nicky Henderson.
It seems a little odd that an exposed 10 year old has transferred into the Henderson stable as it’s not the kind of horse he normally acquires.
Maybe there’s a good reason for it - I honestly don’t know.
In terms of his chance: then he is quite feasibly handicapped on a mark just 1lb higher than the mark he won from first time out, last season.
If Henderson has him ready, then he definitely has a chance..
Milanford looks quite interesting.
He was a fair novice last season - and ran really well at Doncaster in a grade 2 event, when runner up to Hurricane Harvey.
On the back of that, he was quietly fancied for the Kim Muir at the Cheltenham festival - but he disappointed.
He moved to the stable of Ralph Smith over the summer and had a pipe opener over hurdles at Ffos Las last month.
If that’s brought him on - then he should go well tomorrow.
Two Taffs is the final one on the short list.
He transferred into the care of Sophie Leach at the start of the summer, having previously been with NTD.
His last run for NTD was at the Cheltenham April meeting - and he ran off a mark of 137.
He gets to tun tomorrow off a mark of 121 - which I find quite staggering…
In the interim, he’s run 5 times in France - and whilst he’s not won, he’s not run too badly.
Last time out he finished fourth in a 66K Euro grade 3 race. That’s a significantly better race than he will be running in tomorrow…
The main issue with him is the trip - he would be much better over half a mile less.
However, he may get away with it on the quick ground - and certainly looks over-priced, as the outsider of the entire field.
1:40
Only 4 go to post for this novice chase - which is disappointing.
As with My Drogo today, the issue is that few other trainers are prepared to take on a Dan Skelton trained hot pot…
Third Time Lucki was hugely impressive when making a successful chasing debut for Skelton, at the October meeting - and if he replicates that run tomorrow, he will be hard to beat.
That said, I don’t think he’s the near certainty that the betting implies (he’s priced up at 2/5).
On official ratings, he’s just 3lb superior to Mick Pastor - and he has to concede 3lb to him.
In theory, the pair should dead heat !
Mick Pastor had himself looked impressive in winning a series of small field chases, until he was beaten by Captain Tom Cat last weekend at Wincanton.
Captain Tom Cat re-opposes tomorrow - but that race was over 2m4f and he will also be 5lb worse off with Mick Pastor.
I think that should flip the balance in favour of Mick Pastor - and he looks the biggest danger to Third Time Lucki.
Sebastapol completes the line up - but he was hammered by Mick Pastor on his most recent start and will face him tomorrow, on 5lb worse terms.
He sports first time blinkers - but they will need to have some impact if he’s going to reverse the form !
2:15
If the previous race was disappointing - the reverse is true for this years running of the Paddy Power gold cup.
It’s an incredibly strong renewal - and the best race run so far this season, by some margin…
Even coming up with a short-list, isn’t easy - but I guess that’s what I’m paid to do !
Lalor has to head it, on his first start for Paul Nicholls.
The horse was previously trained by Kayley Woollacott and showed himself capable of going very close in races of this nature, off similar marks.
If the champion trainer has managed to eke a few pounds of improvement out of him (and you have to suspect he is more than capable of doing just that !), then he looks sure to go close…
Protektorat is a very different horse, as a second season novice.
He started last season very well, before his form dipped in the new year.
However, he bounced back at Aintree in the spring - where he captured a grade 1 novice chase.
He comfortably beat The Shunter and Hitman in that race - and that’s strong form.
Dan Skelton will have him tuned to the minute - and a mark of 154 does not look overly harsh…
Al Dancer ran off precisely that mark when favourite for this race 12 months ago.
He only managed to finish third that day - but will run tomorrow off a 5lb lower mark.
He will also be having his first run for Sam Thomas - who has done very well with the Dai Walters horses that have recently been transferred into his care.
Al Dancer has an incredible record when fresh, so lack of an outing, is unlikely to be an issue (in fact, I’d view it as a positive).
Midnight Shadow finished runner up to Chatham Street Lad in the Caspian Caviar gold cup, last December.
That was a huge run against a rival who had a stone in hand of his mark.
Midnight Shadow will run off a pound lower mark tomorrow - and ran really well on his comeback in the Old Roan at Aintree.
All 4 look to have exceptionally strong claims - and I suspect one of them will take the prize.
However, there are also a number of interesting runners at bigger prices…
Coole Cody won the race 12 months ago - and must have a chance of doubling up tomorrow off a 4lb higher mark.
The big plus with him is his run style. He goes from the front - and therefore will be out of any trouble.
On the book, he will be hard pressed to win - but I suspect he will go close.
Paint the Dream has been a massive improver in recent starts and looked better than ever when winning on his seasonal debut at Chepstow.
He’s been raised 5lb for the win - but I think that’s the least he should have got.
He’s another who likes to race prominently and I could also see him outrunning his odds.
Deyrann de Carjac is the last one for the (not so) short-list.
He’s a horse I’ve always liked - but his career has been beset by injuries.
Based on his form from a couple of years ago (against Midnight Shadow and Paint the Dream) he could be potentially very well handicapped. He will also love the quick ground.
If Alan King has managed to nurse him back to his best - and he gets luck in running, he has the ability to cause a shock.
2:50
Proschema has understandably been installed favourite for this, on the back of his second to Indefatigable in the grade 2 West Yorkshire hurdle at Wetherby last month.
He finished one place ahead of former stayers winner, Paisley Park - and if that form can be taken at face value, he will take a lot of beating. Certainly, it’s a bit surprising that he’s only been raised 3lb for the run…
The issue with him however, is the trip.
He came there swinging at Wetherby - and didn’t get home. Cheltenham has a much stiffer finish - so if he’s going to win tomorrow, over the same trip, then I suspect he will have to do so on the bridle.
That might be possible - but I doubt I’ll be betting on it !
Dragon Bones and Onagatheringstorm, chased home Bordenstown Lad, in a decent novice event, at the October meeting.
Onagatheringstorm will be 9lb better off tomorrow - and that should make things much closer between the pair.
A lot will depend on which one needed the run most - and certainly with the current price differential, Onagatheringstorm looks the more attractive bet…
Of the outsiders, Optimise Prime interests me most.
He progressed nicely as a novice last season - and ended his campaign running in the Ballymore at the Cheltenham festival.
He made no show in that race - but that wasn’t overly surprising considering the strength of the opposition.
He’ll be making his handicap debut tomorrow - and his opening mark of 129 looks quite reasonable.
That said, his fitness would have to be taken on trust, whilst Ben Paulings recent runners, have hardly been setting the world alight.
3:25
This is another tricky looking handicap hurdle - though the market looks to have found the ‘right’ ones…
Mackelduff and Unexpected Party head the betting.
They both won last time out, on their respective handicap debuts.
Mackelduff was a good winner of a class 2 open handicap at Aintree.
He stayed on well, and won going away from a decent looking field. A 7lb rating rise doesn’t look overly harsh - and with the Olly Murphy stable is such good form, he looks the one to beat.
Unexpected Party won a class 4 novice handicap at Wetherby.
That’s a couple of classes below the race that Mackelduff won - and a class below tomorrows race.
In fairness, he won very easily - and the handicapper can only be guessing, with an 11lb rating rise.
That said, he will need to up his game if he is going to win tomorrow…
Gowel Road made his seasonal debut in the Tote Silver trophy at Chepstow.
He was quite well a fancied for that race - and whilst he finished a creditable sixth, I was a little disappointed with him.
Maybe he’ll be able to build on that run - but he’ll need to…
Benson was a horse I really took to last season.
After winning a couple of low grade novice events early in the season, he then stepped up and won a class 1 handicap at Sandown early in December.
He followed that up by finishing fourth in the feature Betfair Exchange hurdle, run at Ascot just before Christmas.
He finished like a train that day, having got well behind - and looking as if he would really benefit from an extra 4 furlongs.
However, he didn’t run again last season - and now reappears after nearly a year on the sidelines.
I’ve no idea what’s been wrong - but a wind op rings a few alarm bells.
The booking of Lee Edwards also doesn’t really suggest intent - and he may be best watched this time (though I dare say the market will advise better than I can !).
There are a couple of Irish trained runners and both look quite interesting:
Good Time Jonny won well at Gowran on his latest start, having previously run a nice race when third at the Listowel festival.
He’s still very unexposed - and his trainer, Tony Martin, should never be under-estimated.
Whilst Capilano Bridge is the most appealing of the outsiders.
He’s been clobbered by the UK handicapper (who has given him a rating 8lb higher than his Irish mark) - so it’s fascinating that Conor O’Dwyer has brought him over.
It’s even more intriguing that he has booked crack 5lb claimer Shane Fitzgerald, as he will offset most of that burden.
There’s a lot of speculation - particularly as the horse will be making his seasonal debut - but he’s definitely worth keeping a close eye on.
3:55
The final race of the day is a mares bumper - and a bit like the opener on the card, it’s not a race type that I would profess to be an expert on !
The unbeaten Bonntay heads the betting for Fergal and Paddy.
She won first time out at Market Rasen in August - and then followed that up by winning the bumper at the Cheltenham October meeting.
That form certainly gives her a chance - though she will need to improve on it if she’s to win tomorrow…
Where’s Maud Gone, has just about the strongest form on offer, courtesy of her fifth in the grade 2 mares bumper at the Aintree Grand National meeting.
She had also won her 2 races prior to that - so does look the one to beat.
Whisky Express is a potential improver, for Harry Fry.
She won her only start, at Taunton last March - and could easily be much better than the bare form.
Fairy Tree is the sole Irish trained runner in the race.
In fairness, she has probably just accompanied her stablemate Mindsmadeup on the trip over.
However, I’m sure there were a few others who could have come instead - so the fact she is the chosen one, means she needs to be taken seriously in what doesn’t look an overly strong race….
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