Following last weeks storms, the weather has now stabilised (for a while at
least !) - and the ground is again riding quicker than you would expect at this
time of year…
In fairness, it’s rare to get bad ground at Kempton, so
the description of ‘good to soft - good in places’ isn’t a major surprise.
However, that’s not the case at Newcastle, as I can’t recall the last time
the Eider was run on ‘good to soft’ (it's usually heavy to bottomless !)
Maybe as a result, the fields for the days 2 main races, have stood up
well.
14 will go to post for the Coral Trophy handicap (formerly the Racing
Post chase) at Kempton: whilst 17 will run in the Eider.
That’s likely
to result in bookmakers offering enhanced place terms tomorrow - and
consequently, tight odds in the win market.
As a result, it may make more
sense for me to deploy the Matrix on those 2 races…
But, I’m getting
ahead of myself !
For now, I’ll just preview the days main races - and
try to pick out the horses of interest.
Here are my early thoughts…
Kempton
1:15 The card opens with a tight
looking handicap, in which all 8 runners can be given a chance.
Flegmatic is the early favourite, on the back of a recent win over the
course.
He was quite impressive that day - but has been raised 7lb for his
efforts - and drops back half a mile in trip.
The latter move seems slightly
odd, as his form has improved since stepping up to 3 miles.
Patroclus has
won 3 of his last 5 starts - but been pulled up on the other 2.
He battled
on well at Leicester on his most recent start - and a 3lb rise for that win
isn’t overly punitive.
However, based on that run, he doesn’t appear to have
much in hand of his new mark.
It’s over 2 years since Deyrann de Carjac last
won - so it’s no surprise that his handicap mark is dropping.
In fairness,
he’s run quite well in 3 strong handicaps this season - and tomorrows race is a
significant class drop for him.
The trip and ground should both suit him
well - and he looks the most likely race winner.
The form of One True King
seems to have plateaued - so it’s understandable to see him stepped up in trip
tomorrow.
I suspect he has the basic ability to be competitive off a mark of
128 - so if the trip brings about any improvement, he could easily be involved
at the finish.
Le Cameleon bounced back to form last time, when winning at
Fontwell.
He’s only been raised 3lb for that - and there should be little
between him and runner up Foxboro, at the revised weights.
Tomorrows race is
stronger - but as both horses are only 7, they should still have scope for
improvement.
Not a Role Model, has disappointed the last twice, but is
potentially well handicapped, based on his seasonal debut run at Chepstow.
He finished runner up that day in a similar race to tomorrows - and is now
rated 3lb lower.
Neil the Legend completes the field - but he’s quite hard
to assess.
He hacked up by 15 lengths on his seasonal debut at Warwick, at
the end of last year - but never featured, when well fancied at Lingfield 3
weeks later.
If he can recapture the Warwick form, then he would have a
chance.
That said, it was a relatively weak race, run on bad ground - and he
will be running off a mark 8lb higher tomorrow.
1:50
Unbeaten in 4 hurdle starts, Knight Salute sets the standard for
this.
He’s improved with every run, and his defeat of Porticello in the
Grade 2 Summit hurdle at Doncaster, is strong juvenile form.
However, the
runner up probably wasn’t at his best that day, so Knight Salute may have been
slightly flattered.
He’s also not run for over 2 months - and this race is
almost certainly being used as a prep for the Triumph hurdle.
That’s not to
say that he can’t win it - just that things are perhaps not quite as they
appear…
Ofcourse, even if he runs below his best, there needs to be
something in the race capable of taking advantage - and that’s were it gets
tricky !
Impulsive One finished just a length behind Knight Salute at
Doncaster - and has a chance of reversing the form, even on 5lb worse terms.
That’s because, unlike the winner, he’s run subsequently - and was quite
impressive when winning at Musselburgh.
However, in all probability, it’s
the unraced (over hurdles) runners, who will present the greatest threat to
Knight Salute.
Pleasant Man, Rubaid and The Famous Five, will all be making
their hurdling debuts - and all 3 have the potential to be high class.
The
first 2 named, are trained by Paul Nichols - and jockey bookings suggest that
Pleasant Man is the stables main hope.
He was very useful on the flat (rated
95) - and sold for 175K guineas in the autumn.
Both Rubaid and the Venetia
trained The Famous Five, ran on the flat in the France - and were listed class
(so possibly slightly better than Pleasant Man).
The Famous Five was sold
for 250K Euro last month - and if Venetia had more of a history with juveniles,
he would be of particular interest…
It’s hard to make as strong a case (on
form or potential) for the other runners - but a close eye should be kept on
them all.
Even if this race doesn’t contain the winner of the Triumph hurdle
- it’s likely to contain 2 or 3 horses who will have live chances in the Boodles
(the juvenile handicap at the festival).
2:25Only 5 will
go post for this - and in truth, it’s quite hard to look beyond the 2 markets
leaders…
Pic Dorhy is officially the best horse in the race (and by some
margin) - and the most likely winner.
He should have won at Newbury in
November (when I made him a Best bet) - but he fell at the fourth last.
He
made no mistake on his next outing, when dotting up at Ascot - and whilst he
disappointed a little on his most recent start at Sandown, that was in grade 1
company.
It also came at a time when many of the Paul Nichols horses were
running poorly - though in truth, we can’t be completely sure that’s not still
the case.
Regardless, he faced a tough task that day, up against L’Homme
Presse - and his defeat, needs to be put in context.
Minella Drama looks to
be Pic Dorhys main rival.
He’s run really well on 3 of his 4 outings this
season - winning twice and losing out narrowly to War Lord, at Carlisle.
The
only time he disappointed, was when unplaced in the Grade 1 Henry VIII novice
chase at Sandown.
That was over 2 miles and he should be more suited to the
extra half mile, tomorrow.
It’ll be very surprising if he doesn’t run his
race tomorrow - and if he does, Pic Dorhy will need to be on his ‘A’ game, to
beat him.
Based on official ratings, then in receipt of 5lb from the big 2,
Millers Bank should have every chance.
However, he has disappointed on his 2
latest starts - unseating in both, when looking beaten.
He’s undergone wind
surgery since his latest run - which is interesting - and he should appreciate
the decent ground.
That said, he will need to bounce back to form if he’s to
be competitive tomorrow.
Fantastic Lady is the other one who can be given a
chance, based on official ratings.
She will receive 12lb from both Pic Dorhy
and Minella Dream - and that should put her right in the mix.
She’s also
been in good form recently, winning at Warwick and Bangor.
The trouble is,
those races were against much weaker opponents than she faces tomorrow, and it
remains to be seen how she handles the step up in class…
3:00
Shallwehaveonemore heads the market for the Dovecote hurdle - and
whilst that is understandable, a price of around even money, looks decidedly
short…
Presumably that’s because he was an impressive winner on his most
recent start, when hacking up at Sandown.
However, he faced very limited
opposition that day - and was sent off at 4/9. Anything other than a
comprehensive win, would have been disappointing.
It’s also hard to judge
the worth of his 2 other hurdle runs - so whilst he is undeniably a promising
sort, he’s not yet proven to be as good as the market is suggesting.
Second
fav Aucunrisk has an unusual profile, in that he won a handicap on his most
recent start - off a mark of just 117 !
He’s now rated 126 - but you
wouldn’t generally expect the second fav for a grade 2 event to have such a
lowly rating (I guess it’s another indicator of the current dearth of talent).
In fairness, he’s only run 3 times over hurdles - so could easily be much
better than his mark.
With a mark of 134, Iceo is the highest rated horse in
the field - and as he’s only 4, he receives weight from most of his rivals.
He was really impressive when winning over course and distance, just after
Christmas - but then disappointed on his next start at Cheltenham on trials day.
He’ll need to bounce back from that - but returned to Kempton, he may be
capable of doing that.
Mariko de Vassy did well to win at Doncaster on his
most recent start.
A mistake at the last seemed to have cost him victory
that day, but he powered to the line and got up in the shadows of the post.
He fell on his previous start at Huntingdon, when still looking to have
every chance, so his jumping is a concern.
However, if he can sort that out,
then he clearly possesses a serious engine.
Russian Ruler made his hurdling
debut in the Doncaster race - but could only finish third.
However, he
showed plenty of ability - and was backed into 13/8 fav at the off.
Based
purely on form, he’ll struggle to reverse placings - but it wouldn’t greatly
surprise me if it was close between the pair tomorrow.
3:37
As you’d expect, with prize money of £150K, this is a cracking
contest.
14 will go to post, and narrowing down the field, isn’t easy…
Annsam and Phoenix Way both have to be on the short-list.
They
finished first and second in a similarly strong handicap at Ascot, just before
Christmas - and Phoenix Way has subsequently franked that form by winning at
Ascot.
Both horses are now 6lb higher in the weights - suggesting that
Annsam should again come out on top.
However more importantly, they are both
clearly progressing - and therefore capable of taking their form to a higher
level.
Cap de Nord is the best handicapped horse in the race.
He was
beaten just over 10 lengths in this race last year, off a 15lb higher mark.
Whilst generally, he’s not matched that level since, there was definite
promise in his most recent outing, when third in Skybet chase at Doncaster.
His stablemate, Five Star Getaway, must also have a good chance.
He beat
Fortescue and Flegmatic over course and distance, just after the Christmas - and
the placed pair have both franked the form by winning subsequently.
Interestingly, Five Star Getaway will run off a mark just 4lb higher
tomorrow - so if those 2 were in the race, they would be meeting him on worse
terms !
The Big Breakaway ran a cracker over hurdles on his most recent
start at Newbury - and whilst there is no denying his talent, I’m not convinced
that he will be best suited by a big field handicap chase.
That shouldn’t be
an issue for Galahad Quest, and he’s interesting, stepped up in trip, after a
fair effort over half a mile less at Cheltenham.
He’ll need to improve if
he’s to win tomorrow - but he’s only 6, so that’s quite possible.
Zanza is
another one who is stepping up in trip - and he certainly has the ability to go
close.
The issue with him is his jumping, though that may be helped by the
longer distance (and likely slower pace).
Enrilo was first past the post in
last seasons B365 Gold cup - and whilst he’s disappointed in his 2 starts this
season, the fitting of first time cheek pieces, may well perk him up.
Kittys Light is the most interesting of the outsiders.
He was the moral
winner of last seasons B365 gold cup (Enrilo interfered with him, close home)
and will run off a mark just 1lb higher tomorrow.
He ran well on his first 2
starts this season - but has disappointed on his last 3. If the better ground
triggers a return to form, then he could be right in the mix.
Newcastle
3:15 The Eider chase may only be
worth half as much as the Coral Trophy handicap at Kempton - but it too has
attracted a strong field.
History of Fashion heads the betting - which
is no great surprise.
He’s an Irish raider, who has only run 4 times
previously over fences (unseating on one of those occasions) - and won easily on
his most recent start.
That was his first run in a handicap and he stayed on
strongly, suggesting that tomorrows trip will hold no fears.
He’ll have to
run from a mark 11lb higher tomorrow - but the Irish assessor raised him 9lb, so
his English mark doesn’t seem unreasonable.
He’s nearly impossible to get a
proper handle on - but it would be no surprise, to see him run really well.
Eclair Surf is next in the betting, following his romp in the Classic chase
at Warwick.
He was a revelation that days, leading from flag fall and coming
home 13 lengths clear of his closest rival.
A 10lb rating rise (or more !)
was inevitable - but tomorrows likely quicker ground, could prove more of an
issue for him.
Danilo Dairy won 3 chases on the bounce, before being pulled
up over hurdles at Lingfield last time.
That run can probably be ignored -
but he will be facing much stronger rivals tomorrow than he did when recording
his hattrick, and it remains to be seen how he copes with that.
Checkitout
has run some good races this season - most notably when third in the Becher
chase at Aintree.
He managed to get off the mark at Fontwell last month -
and he could well be capable of building on that, off a 2lb higher mark.
Win
my Wings did well to overhaul Run to Milan at Exeter last time - and the runner
up has subsequently franked the form.
Win my Wings only got a 3lb rating
rise for that effort - and if she can run to a similar level tomorrow, she
should be right in the mix.
Rath an Iuir is an interesting one, as he is
very unexposed.
He looked good when wining a couple of races last season -
but was then off the course for over a year.
Despite finishing last of 5, he
didn’t run badly on his return at Ayr last month, and if he has come on for the
run, he’s another who could be involved in the finish.
Veterans Lake View
Lad and Achille are both potentially well handicapped.
However, they are
probably in decline - and would also prefer softer ground than they are going to
get.
