Matrix bets
Leopardstown
1:20Fury Road 1 unit win CEP 13 FP 11
4:10
Cask Mate 2 units win CEP 13 FP 10
Inn from the Cold 1 unit win CEP 30 FP 26
Musselburgh
2:20
Coastal World 2 units win CEP 11 FP 9
3:15
Cedar Hill 1 unit win CEP 6.6 FP 7
With 4 of the Leopardstown races having odds on favourites -
and the other 2 being competitive handicaps, it was always likely that I’d
struggle to find any strong bets today...
In truth, the Musselburgh card was more likely to yield something - but I found it uninspiring (maybe it was one card too many, at the end of a tough couple of days !).
I did revisit it last night, after I’d posted the preview, and I briefly thought I might have found a Best bet.
However, I suspect I was just trying to force things, so I’ve ended up covering the horse in question, on the Matrix instead.
And that’s how I’ve handed all of todays suggested bets - via the Matrix (it’s a good job I have the option :) )
Here’s the thinking behind the bets…
Leopardstown
Of all the short priced favs running at Leopardstown today, it makes most sense to take on Galopin Des Champs (1:20).
There can be no denying that he’s the most likely race winner - but he’s an inexperienced novice chaser - and they are rarely worth backing at odds on.
He also faces some serious opposition - though that doesn’t help when you are trying to find a bet against him !
Capodanno and Fruy Road are the 2 that appeal most - and as the latter was 4pts bigger, he was the one I decided to include in the Matrix…
If he’s back to his best (or even close), Chacun Pour Soi will win the 1:50.
In truth, he could probably run 10lb below his peak - and still win comfortably…
There are question marks over the stable form of his 2 main opponents - and whilst Dunvegan is progressing, he has a mountain to climb in order to reach the level of Chacu Pour Soi.
Simply, this is Chacuns race to lose…
I did initially quite like the look of the 2:25 - but the more I dug into it, the less appealing it became !
My expectation was that I would side with Birchdale - but he’s been tipped up everywhere, and 5/1 is to short in a race of this nature (particularly for an inconsistent horse).
Max Flamingo is quite interesting against him - but again, his price is plenty short enough.
Of the outsiders, then Samcro and Foxy Jacks hold some appeal - though both are far
more likely to blow out !
Ultimately, I decided that it was a race that I was best off leaving alone…
It’s hard (impossible!) to look beyond Honeysuckle in the 3:00.
Simply, if she runs to form, she will win - and win easily.
Therefore, if you bet against her, it’s in the hope that either something goes wrong - or that Henry de Bromhead has left her short.
I won’t be surprised if she makes quite hard work of it - but I will be surprised if she doesn’t manage to get the job done…
I don’t think that Sir Gerhard is completely bomb proof in the 3:35 - but equally, there isn’t anything that I particularly fancy taking him on with.
He’s by far the most likely winner - not least because the opposition looks relatively weak.
If I was to get involved in the race, I’d probably have a small EW play on Gatsby Grey at 50/1. But officially speaking, it’s just a watching race…
Cask Mate is just about the most appealing bet on the card, in the 4:10.
That said, as he’s running in a 28 runner handicap, confidence has to be limited !
The other issue is his price. He was 13 on the exchanges when I issued - but 8/1 (best) with the bookmakers.
As all Best bets are advised to best bookmaker prices, it would be hard to accept such a price reduction…
Obviously there are plenty of potential dangers - and I think it’s also worth covering Inn from the Cold.
He’s quite speculative, but the price is there to warrant a small risk.
Musselburgh
The 1:32 race looks likely to go to one of the market leaders - the question is which one…
Inca Prince has been very strong in the market - and I suspect that could be prophetic.
Calvados makes some appeal at around 8 on the exchanges - but not quite sufficient to warrant including him in the Matrix.
Therefore, a watching race…
It’s a bit surprising to see that Socialist Agenda hasn’t yet been withdrawn from the 2:05.
Regardless though, it’s not a race I was every going to get involved with…
Coastal World was as close as I got to issuing a Best bet today, in the 2:40…
I like his profile - and suspect he could be a fair bit better than his current mark.
It also strikes me as interesting, that connections have sent him to the UK to run in a Pertemps qualifier…
However, they have managed to find quite a strong race to run in.
Both Brorson and Wakool, are seriously progressive - and could still be a fair bit ahead of their marks.
The Big Galloper is the other concerning one - particularly if he’s backed.
I’d expect Coastal World to run well - but on balance, I couldn‘t quite make him a Best bet.
He’s certainly worth a couple of units for the Matrix though…
The 3:15 looks quite an open contest - and I just about like Cedar Hill best.
He’ll need to bounce back from having been well beaten last time - though that was in a hot race.
There’s not a lot in his price, but around 6/1 is fair.
Again, he couldn’t be a Best bet - but is worth a small play for the Matrix…
In truth, the Musselburgh card was more likely to yield something - but I found it uninspiring (maybe it was one card too many, at the end of a tough couple of days !).
I did revisit it last night, after I’d posted the preview, and I briefly thought I might have found a Best bet.
However, I suspect I was just trying to force things, so I’ve ended up covering the horse in question, on the Matrix instead.
And that’s how I’ve handed all of todays suggested bets - via the Matrix (it’s a good job I have the option :) )
Here’s the thinking behind the bets…
Leopardstown
Of all the short priced favs running at Leopardstown today, it makes most sense to take on Galopin Des Champs (1:20).
There can be no denying that he’s the most likely race winner - but he’s an inexperienced novice chaser - and they are rarely worth backing at odds on.
He also faces some serious opposition - though that doesn’t help when you are trying to find a bet against him !
Capodanno and Fruy Road are the 2 that appeal most - and as the latter was 4pts bigger, he was the one I decided to include in the Matrix…
If he’s back to his best (or even close), Chacun Pour Soi will win the 1:50.
In truth, he could probably run 10lb below his peak - and still win comfortably…
There are question marks over the stable form of his 2 main opponents - and whilst Dunvegan is progressing, he has a mountain to climb in order to reach the level of Chacu Pour Soi.
Simply, this is Chacuns race to lose…
I did initially quite like the look of the 2:25 - but the more I dug into it, the less appealing it became !
My expectation was that I would side with Birchdale - but he’s been tipped up everywhere, and 5/1 is to short in a race of this nature (particularly for an inconsistent horse).
Max Flamingo is quite interesting against him - but again, his price is plenty short enough.
Of the outsiders, then Samcro and Foxy Jacks hold some appeal - though both are far
more likely to blow out !
Ultimately, I decided that it was a race that I was best off leaving alone…
It’s hard (impossible!) to look beyond Honeysuckle in the 3:00.
Simply, if she runs to form, she will win - and win easily.
Therefore, if you bet against her, it’s in the hope that either something goes wrong - or that Henry de Bromhead has left her short.
I won’t be surprised if she makes quite hard work of it - but I will be surprised if she doesn’t manage to get the job done…
I don’t think that Sir Gerhard is completely bomb proof in the 3:35 - but equally, there isn’t anything that I particularly fancy taking him on with.
He’s by far the most likely winner - not least because the opposition looks relatively weak.
If I was to get involved in the race, I’d probably have a small EW play on Gatsby Grey at 50/1. But officially speaking, it’s just a watching race…
Cask Mate is just about the most appealing bet on the card, in the 4:10.
That said, as he’s running in a 28 runner handicap, confidence has to be limited !
The other issue is his price. He was 13 on the exchanges when I issued - but 8/1 (best) with the bookmakers.
As all Best bets are advised to best bookmaker prices, it would be hard to accept such a price reduction…
Obviously there are plenty of potential dangers - and I think it’s also worth covering Inn from the Cold.
He’s quite speculative, but the price is there to warrant a small risk.
Musselburgh
The 1:32 race looks likely to go to one of the market leaders - the question is which one…
Inca Prince has been very strong in the market - and I suspect that could be prophetic.
Calvados makes some appeal at around 8 on the exchanges - but not quite sufficient to warrant including him in the Matrix.
Therefore, a watching race…
It’s a bit surprising to see that Socialist Agenda hasn’t yet been withdrawn from the 2:05.
Regardless though, it’s not a race I was every going to get involved with…
Coastal World was as close as I got to issuing a Best bet today, in the 2:40…
I like his profile - and suspect he could be a fair bit better than his current mark.
It also strikes me as interesting, that connections have sent him to the UK to run in a Pertemps qualifier…
However, they have managed to find quite a strong race to run in.
Both Brorson and Wakool, are seriously progressive - and could still be a fair bit ahead of their marks.
The Big Galloper is the other concerning one - particularly if he’s backed.
I’d expect Coastal World to run well - but on balance, I couldn‘t quite make him a Best bet.
He’s certainly worth a couple of units for the Matrix though…
The 3:15 looks quite an open contest - and I just about like Cedar Hill best.
He’ll need to bounce back from having been well beaten last time - though that was in a hot race.
There’s not a lot in his price, but around 6/1 is fair.
Again, he couldn’t be a Best bet - but is worth a small play for the Matrix…
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