Bets/Staking rationale

Best bets

Kempton

1:15
Deyrann de Carjac 1pt win 7/2

3:00
Morika de Vassy 0.5pt win 10/1

3:37
Galahad Quest 0.5pt win 14/1


Matrix bets

Kempton

3:00
Iceo 1 unit win CEP 5.6 FP 6
Russian Ruler 1 unit win CEP 20 FP 15

3:37
Five Star Getaway 1 unit win CEP 10.5 FP 9
Cap du Nord  1 unit win CEP 11.5 FP 9
Kittys Light 1 unit win CEP 21 FP 17
Zanza 1 unit win CEP 14.5 FP 13

Newcastle

3:15
Win my Wings 2 units win CEP 8.4 FP 10
History of Fashion 1 unit win CEP 9.4 FP 8
Rath an Iuir 1 unit win CEP 13.5 FP 13
Checkitout 1 unit win CEP 13.5 FP 13

As Saturday mornings go, this morning was relatively straightforward…

I had 3 main fancies on the day, and I was able to issue them all as Best bets.
I had to wait for a price drift on one of them - but it eventually moved closer to where it should have been.

I also added a few for the Matrix - to fill the gaps !

All they’ve got to do now, is win :)

Here’s some detail on the thinking behind the bets/staking…


Kempton

Deyrann de Carjac is my big fancy of the day, in the opener (1:15).
Unfortunately, he is also fancied by quite a few of the influential tipsters, so the question was whether his price would hold up…
I had in my mind that 7/2 was a ‘fair price’ - and that is a price that everyone should have get.
Some of you may have been able to get 4/1 - and if so, that’s a ‘value’ bet !
The case for him is strong, as he’s run well in much better races this season - but is  dropping down the handicap.
He will also have ideal conditions (decent ground and a flat course).
There are dangers in the race - notably, Patroclus, Not a role Model and One True King - but if Deyrann is as well handicapped as I think, he should beat them.
He’s the strongest bet I’ve put up in while, so I’ve staked him accordingly.
Hopefully he gets a bit of luck - and his talent takes care of the rest !

I was in 2 minds as to whether to issue any bets in the 1:50 - but I’ve eventually decided against it.
I was tempted to side with a couple of big priced newcomers - for minimum stakes on the Matrix - but I suspect they won’t be up to the job.
Rubaud and The Famous Five were the pair I had in mind - but winning a race of this nature on debut, is a big ask.
Ofcourse, if they come in for significant support, I might change my mind !
In terms of what will win the race, then I wouldn’t be surprised to see Impulsive One get the better of Knight Salute.
Officially speaking however, I’ll just be watching…

I like Pic Dorhy best in the 2:25 - and if he keeps on drifting, I’m likely to suggest him on the Live thread.
The issue with suggesting him now, is that he’s 2/1 with the bookmakers - and for a horse with question marks over his jumping and over the form of his stable, that’s too short.
He’s 3.5 on the exchanges (as I type) - and if he gets close to 4, I’ll be placing a bet.
Officially though, it’s another watching race.

I’m not surprised by the drift on Shallwehaveonemore in the 3:00.
Even money last night looked much too short - and the 2/1 this morning, looks much more accurate.
Ofcourse that still makes him the most likely race winner - but it doesn’t make him a flip of a coin (as yesterdays price suggested).
I was tempted by Iceo and Russian Ruler - but I really think that Moriko de Vassy is over-priced at 10/1.
He could be unbeaten in 4 starts (he fell at the second last, when disputing the lead, the time he was beaten) - and the way he won a race which he should have lost, last time, marked him out as a horse with serious ability.
It’s hard to compare the form lines of novices - but it strikes me that he has been under-estimated.
I’m prepared to take on the 2 market leaders (at the prices) - but will cover both Iceo and Russian Ruler, for the Matrix…

The Coral Trophy (3:37) looks really open (you can get around 8/1 the field) - but I do think that Galahad Quest has been over-looked…
He’s the youngest horse in the field - and stepping up in trip - so there is a good chance he’ll show improved form today.
In fairness, he’ll need to, if he’s to win - but he’ll not need to improve by that much.
I did think that I’d have to tackle this race via the Matrix - and in case Galahad doesn’t run as hope, I’ll cover a few of the dangers, as well.
The 3 Christian Williams horses have all got chances (Five Star Getaway, Cap de Nord and Kittys Light), as has Zanza (if his jumping holds up).
All 4 are worth minimum plays, to at least cover stakes on Galahad.


Newcastle

The unexpected quick ground has turned the Eider (3:15) on its head - and it’s a different puzzle to the one it presents most years.
Unfortunately, the betting has quickly adjusted to that - and the horses I’m interested in, have all been backed.
Win my Wings was 20/1 yesterday - but is now 6/1 fav ! (helped, no doubt, by Pricewise tipping her).
She was my main fancy in the race - but there is no margin in the current price.
Rath an Iuir and Checkitout, are 2 others that I fancied - but both have been backed this morning.
By contrast, early fav, History of Fashion is now on the drift…
I’ll cover all 4 in the Matrix - and let you try and secure decent prices at some point during the day (the FP in the Matrix bets email, should help)