It’s National Spirit day at Fontwell tomorrow - and the field has held up better than I expected.
There are also a couple of graded races at Naas - and a really interesting novice handicap chase.I don’t know whether I’ll want to issue any official bets - and even if I do, I don’t know whether the markets will be able to handle them !
However, I’ll offer my early thoughts now - and I’ll deal with the tipping (or otherwise), in the morning…
Fontwell
2:50
6 will go to post for the National Spirit - and it looks an interesting little contest…
Brewin upastorm won the race last year - and he’s favourite to repeat the feat tomorrow.
He’s looked an improved performer this season, winning 2 of his 3 races - and falling at the last when still in with every chance, in the other.
On his most recent start, he ran down Darver Star after the final flight - and it’s interesting that one is prepared to renew rivalry on exactly the same terms.
In fairness, Darver Star did look the most likely winner for most of that race, so maybe connections are hoping that the better ground will enable him to reverse the form.
Certainly, they’ve gone to a lot of effort (and presumably expense) to try and get their revenge - particularly as the horse was favourite for the Boyne hurdle at Navan on Tuesday, before being withdrawn on account of the ground…
Monmiral is a very interesting runner…
He was arguably the best juvenile hurdler in training last season - and whilst he disappointed at Newcastle, on his only start this season, there was a good reason for that (he was struck in to).
The main concern with him is that he’s been off the course for 3 months - and is likely to be using this race as a prep for his main spring targets…
That could also be the case for Allmankind.
He’s best known as a chaser - but is also pretty decent over hurdles.
He’s likely to put the pace to the race - and I won’t be at all surprised if he runs really well.
On official ratings, Guard Your dreams has plenty on, conceding weight to all bar Brewin upastorm.
The trip and ground should be fine for him - but he’s already had quite a tough season and is likely to find one or two, too good.
Botox Has is the final runner - and whilst conditions should be fine for him, he looks a little outclassed.
Naas
2:00
Only 4 will go to post for this - but it’s an interesting race.
Captain Guiness is the class horse in the contest, having been placed in grade 1s on his 2 most recent starts.
In fairness, that flatters him a little, as he finished third of five in both races - though he wasn’t beaten too far in the Tingle Creek on his penultimate outing.
However, he has to concede 7lb to his 3 rivals tomorrow - and he won’t find that easy…
On official adjusted ratings, Blackbow is the best horse in the race - and he looks the one to beat.
He just got the worse of a prolonged duel with Dunvegan in a valuable handicap at Fairyhouse, early in January - before appearing to find 2m5f too far on his most recent start at the Dublin Racing festival.
Dropped back to the minimum trip, he could take a bit of catching…
Darasso has become an admirable horse - over both hurdles and fences - and at a variety of trips.
He beat Saint Felicien at Naas his penultimate start, at the end of January - before finishing runner up to Teahupoo, last weekend.
Both of those races were over hurdles - but he is just as effective over the bigger obstacles.
He should run his race tomorrow - and at very least, keep Captain Guiness and Blackbow honest…
Cash Back completes the line up - and he looks the least likely winner.
He finished 11 lengths behind Captain Guiness on his most recent start in the Dublin chase at Leopardstown - and even on 7lb better terms, I’ll be surprised if he’s able to reverse the form.
2:30
This is a cracking novice handicap - though probably not one I’ll be able to tip in (even if I want to !)
I expected to see Ballyshannon Rose installed favourite, following her defeat of Jeremys Flame in a grade 2 at Thurles last month.
The runner up franked the form earlier this week - and a rating of 136 for Ballyshannon Rose, does seem lenient.
She is a massive mare, so I doubt she’ll have much issue carrying a big weight - and she looks to me, like the one to beat…
The early market favours Krabat ahead of her, and he clearly has plenty of potential.
He finally came good on his most recent start at Clonmel and a 6lb rating rise for an 11 length win, is hardly punitive.
Street Wise is the other early market leader.
He too won his most recent start - at Cork - but he was hit with an 11lb rise for that win and is likely to find tomorrows race a bit tougher…
King Alex and Gevrey are two other last time out winners - and I was particularly taken by the former, who was a good winner at Limerick over 2 miles.
I’d expect him to improve for the step up in trip tomorrow - though he will need to, as he was raised a stone for the win and will be facing tougher opposition…
3:00
Suffice to say, I’ve not got a strong view on this grade 2 novice hurdle - though I am amused to see a 14 year old, rated 80, running in it !
Still with 365 Euro for sixth place, I guess it’s worth getting out of your stable for !
And who knows, if there are any accidents, he could be in for an even bigger pay day !
Fair play, I say !!
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