Monday, February 7, 2022

Feb 6th - Preview for Leopardstown & Musselburgh

 Day 2 of the Dublin Racing Festival - and whilst there will be some tremendous horses on show, finding decent bets, is again likely to prove tricky…


The 4 grade 1s have all got odds on favourites - so realistically, I’ll be looking at the handicaps for betting opportunities.
The trouble is, they tend to be minefields !

Things don’t look a lot better at Musselburgh…

The ITV cameras will be showing 4 races - but in truth, it is stretching a point, to call them ‘big’ races.
Whilst they’ve got the prize money and status to warrant that classification - they haven’t attracted particular strong fields.

It’s a familiar story - and one that is quite concerning for the future of the sport.

Still, it is what it is !

I’ve previewed all of the televised races - I’ve just kept things short when I’ve not got a strong view (or when I have got a strong view, but it’s in agreement with the market)


Leopardstown

1:20


I’ve been watching jumps racing for a long time (a very long time !), and I struggle to think of many more impressive chasing debuts, than that of Galopin des Champs at Leopardstown over the Christmas period.
He jumped from fences to fence, meeting every obstacles on a stride - and coming home hard held, by 22 lengths.
It really was a stunning performance, and suggested that he’s top class.
He’d looked good at the back end of last season, when winning the Martin Pipe at the Cheltenham festival - and then taking a grade 1 at the Punchestown festival - but his performance at Leopardstown, was at a different level.
That said, you should never get carried away by one run - and he is going from a beginners chase to a grade 1, tomorrow.
However, it will still be quite surprising if he’s beaten.
That said, he faces some tough opposition - including three horses who have already won at the top level.
Master McShee won the Faugheen novice chase at Limerick over the Christmas period; Fury Road won the Nevilles hotel novice chase at Leopardstown; and Beacon Edge won the Drinmore at the Fairyhouse Christmas festival, in November.
Master Mcshee looks just about the pick of the trio - with tomorrows distance, likely to suit him well.
However, the biggest threat to Galopin des Champs may turn out to be Capodanno.
He won on his chasing debut at Naas in December - but surpassed that, when giving Bob Olinger a fright at Punchestown, last month.
Ultimately, Bob Olinger won quite comfortably, but turning in, it did look as if  Capodanno might cause a shock.
It’ll be an even bigger shock if he manages to beat Galopin des Champs - though stranger things do happen..!

1:50

The second grade 1 of the day - and in all probability, Chacun Pour Soi will take the race for the third time.
He’s an exceptional chaser, who has only lost once in Ireland - and has won 5 grade 1 chases over the past few years.
The only slight concern with him, is that he has lost 2 of his 3 most recent outings (both times, in England) - and he ran particularly poorly on his only start this season, when finishing last in the Tingle Creek at Sandown.
Clearly something wasn’t right that day - but the horse is now 10 and has always been fragile, so there must be a chance that he experienced a physical issue.
If Willie has him back in top form, then he’s likely to outclass his opponents - but I’m not sure I’d want to take odds of 4/6 to find out…
If he does come up short, then the race looks quite open.
Greaneteen is the obvious alternative - but the form of the Paul Nicholls stable, remains a concern.
He also hasn’t got a huge amount in hand of Captain Guiness on their runs in the Tingle Creek - whilst the latter will enjoy ‘home’ advantage tomorrow.
That said, Dunvegan may be a better option that either of them.
He’s been a revelation this season, winning a couple of very good handicaps - and whilst he has a few pounds to find on official ratings, nothing comes into the race in better form…

2:25

17 will go to post for this - but it’s probably not quite as competitive as that number suggests…

Blackbow heads the market, following a good second to Dunvegan at Fairyhouse last month.
That was over the minimum trip - and he could easily improve for stepping up half a mile tomorrow.
That said, he will probably need to, as he will have to defy a 5lb higher mark…
Birchdale ran a huge race last time, in the Paddy Power chase.
He looked the most likely winner leaving the back - but didn’t get home and eventually faded into sixth place.
He’s effectively 4lb higher in the weights tomorrow, as he Is out of the handicap. However the booking of 7lb claimer, Mark McDonagh, will offset that (and some !)
Max Flamingo ran a massive race on his most recent start, when fourth to Fury Road, in a grade 1 at Leopardstown over Christmas.
Whilst he was stepping up on his previous efforts, his earlier runs in novice chases this season, had suggested that he is going to be a much better chaser than he was hurdler.
An opening chase mark of 142 is 15lb higher than his hurdles mark - but he may be capable of defying it…
Samcro and Foxy Jacks look the most interesting of the outsiders…
It seems crazy, having the former running off a mark of 152 in a handicap, when not long ago, he was considered the next coming.
Obviously, he’s not fulfilled his early promise - but he did win the Grade 1 Marsh novice chase at the 2020 Cheltenham festival (beating Melon) and if anywhere near his best, would be a danger to them all.
Foxy Jacks disappointed on his most recent start in the the Thystes - but prior to that had finished just behind Birchdale in the Paddy Power chase.
He will be 5lb better off tomorrow (excluding jockey allowances), and based on that run, he should go well…

3:00

It’s impossible to oppose Honeysuckle in the Irish champion hurdle…
She’s unbeaten in 13 runs over hurdles - and really does seem to get better with every run.
It was in this race 12 months ago, that she really announced her arrival at the top table - and she followed that up by winning the Champion hurdles at both the Cheltenham and Punchestown festivals.
She looked as good as ever, when taking the Hattons Grace on her return at Fairyhouse at the end of November - and all things being equal, she will win tomorrow…
Zanahiyr looks the one most likely to chase her home.
He was a decent juvenile hurdler last season - but has stepped up on that this season, when competing in open company.
He won on his seasonal return at Down Royal on October - but has twice surpassed that effort, when chasing home Sharjah in grade 1 events.
On that form, he has a few lengths to find with Honeysuckle - and whilst he may not be able to bridge the gap, he should at least keep the mare honest…
It’s hard to see the other 3 runners being good enough to get seriously involved.
Though I wouldn’t be surprised if Echoes in Rain run better, in a first time tongue tie.
She looked a serious animal last spring - and whilst she’d disappointed in her 2 runs so far this season, if anyone can get her back, Willie can !

3:35

The final grade 1 of the day, is likely to see the 4th odds on fav, in the shape of Sir Gerhard…

He was a top class bumper horse last season, and made an impressive hurdling debut, when winning at Leopardstown over the Christmas period.
The form itself is nothing to get excited about - but the manner of victory suggested he will be hard to beat in novice events this season.
In truth, tomorrows opposition looks a little limited…
Three Stripe Life is probably the pick, based on his second to Mighty Potter in a grade 1 over Christmas.
However, Three Stripe Life finished over 8 lengths behind Sir Gerhard in last seasons Cheltenham bumper - so he has a fair gap to close…
On a line through Mighty Potter, it can be argued that My Mate Mozzie and Statuaire, are the form picks in tomorrows race - as they had that horse back in third, when fighting out the finish of the Royal Bond.
However, even if that is the case, they all appear quite closely matched…
There are a few potential big improvers in the race, headed by El Fabiolo.
He won at Tramore on his debut for Willie, and literally could be anything.
Outsiders Gatsby Grey and Watch House Cross also won their sole hurdle start, so have endless potential.
That said, they’ll have to be very good, if they are going to get the better of Sir Gerhard…

4:10

With 28 going to post for this, it looks a much tougher puzzle than the handicap chase.
I will offer a short list - but confidence is limited…

Cask Mate is the obvious start point.
He finished runner up to Zanahiyr at Down Royal in October - and whilst the winner has doubtless improved since, Cask Mate still did well, running him to 8 lengths in receipt of just 5lb.
In fairness, Cask Mate also has some good form in the book from last season - most notably a second place in the Royal Bond (to Ballyadam).
Based on both of those efforts, a mark of 139 looks very workable - and whilst he’s not be seen for 100 days, I suspect he will have no issue with fitness.
I was quite keen on Sea Ducor, when he ran at Leopardstown over Christmas - but he disappointed badly.
Based on that run, he has no chance tomorrow - but based his form of last winter, he has every chance.
In his 2 runs, he beat Galopin des Champs and was runner up to Master McShee.
Both have subsequently won grade 1 contests - whilst Sea Ducor gets to run off a mark of just 133 tomorrow…
The market told with him last time - and it may do again tomorrow - but for now, he has to be on the short list.
I’m a bit surprised to see Eclair de Beaufeu available to back at 33/1.
He finished fourth in last seasons County hurdle - and runs off a 4lb lower mark tomorrow (accepting that UK marks tend to be inflated).
Whilst In from the Cold, is another big priced runner, who catches my eye.
He’s only run 3 times over hurdles - but has shown promise on each occasion.
He’s rated 97 on the flat - and if he can run to a similar level over hurdles, he should be very competitive off an opening mark of 132.

 Musselburgh

The Musselburgh card is quite uninspiring - and I very much doubt I’ll be able to find any bets.
I’ll therefore keep the previews short !


1:32


The right 3 look to head the market in this - the question is simply which one of the trio to side with…
Impulsive One is the form pick, based on his third to Knight Salute and Porticello at Doncaster.
That’s good form - and whilst Impulsive One doesn’t look particularly straightforward. If he can run to the same level tomorrow, he will probably win.
Calvados looks a danger.
She ran well on her penultimate start, when runner up to Sea Sessions in a listed race at Aintree.
In fairness, it was quite a weak listed race - and she was put in her place next time, in a grade 2 behind Fil Dor.
She wears a first time hood tomorrow, which makes me a little wary - but if it has the desired effect (to settle her down), she should go very close.
Inca Prince is the final one of major interest.
He’s unbeaten in 2 starts for Ruth Jefferson, having transferred over from Ireland.
He finished third to Fil Dor on his final Irish start - and on a line through the runner up (Sea Sessions), should have the beating of Calvados.
He’s a free going sort, but if Brian Hughes can get his fractions right on him, he could prove hard to pass.

2:05


I’ve really not got a strong view on this race..!

Since Day One looks the one to beat, following wins in 3 novice hurdles at Newcastle.
He’s clearly on a upward curve and could prove hard to beat.
That said, on official ratings, Restandbethankful is 3lb his superior.
He’s more exposed, having run in 3 handicaps - winning the most recent of them.
It’s hard to muster much enthusiasm for the other 3 runners (Socialist Agenda is likely to be withdrawn, having won at the track today).

This will definitely be a watching race !

2:40

Brorson looks the one to beat, having shown big improvement on his most recent start.
That was at Southwell, on his second run in a handicap - and he absolutely dotted up by 16 lengths.
The handicapper reacted by giving his a 13lb rating rise - but if he’s going to get into the Pertemps final, he’s likely to need a couple more pounds on his mark.
A win tomorrow will achieve that…
Wakool looks the main danger.
He’s won 4 of his last 5 starts - including his last 3 - and has seen his mark raised 28lb as a result.
Again, he may need to be rated a few pounds higher, if he is to get into the series final - but a big run tomorrow should achieve that.
The Big Galloper could certainly be of interest, based on his form of a couple of seasons ago - however, he’s not shown anything recently.
It’s therefore a bit surprising that Charles Byrnes has sent him over to run in this race.
He would need to win it - and win it well - if he was to have any chance of running in the final.
He’s certainly worth keeping an eye on, in the betting…

3:15


I did hope that I might be able to find something of interest in this - but I can’t…

Sarasota Star looks the most likely winner - but he is also the favourite.
He has finished runner up on his 2 most recent starts, at Hereford and Taunton - but may be capable of going one better tomorrow, in what looks a weak race.
Cedar Hill looks the best alternative.
He was well beaten on his most recent start - but that was in a much stronger race at Lingfield.
On his previous start, he got the better of Lucky Flight in a driving finish at Kelso.
That one will be 2lb better off tomorrow for a couple of lengths, so there should be little between the pair.
However, Cedar Hill showed the better attitude that day - and I would expect him to confirm the form.

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