With storms currently battering the country, it’s hard to know what conditions will be like for tomorrows racing - assuming it goes ahead !
The ground at Haydock is already described as ‘heavy’ - and with more rain forecast, it’s no surprise that there is an inspection planned for tomorrow morning.
Things are a little better at Ascot, where the going is currently described as ‘soft’. There isn’t much more rain expected, so if there’s an issue tomorrow, it’s likely to be with wind.
It’s a similar situation at Wincanton, where wind rather than rain, appears to be the main concern (there has been some wind damage today)…
I guess we’ll just have to see what tomorrow brings !
In terms of field sizes, then they are a bit better, than has been the case in recent weeks - though obviously, the weather may cause a few non-runners.
It’s like trying to hit a moving target !
Anyway, that’s all out of my control - for now, I’ll just preview the days big races - and make a decision on any bets, in the morning…
Ascot
1:50
Only 6 will go to post for this - and it lacks the quality you’d expect from a grade 2 event.
However, all 6 runners can be given a chance - so it’s still an interesting puzzle to try and solve.
The early betting seems to have been driven by official ratings - which I guess is fair enough !
Does he Know is the top rated horse in the field - even on adjusted ratings (he has to concede 3lb to his rivals).
He’s not run for 3 months - but can go well fresh. However, the big concern with him, is the ground.
All of his best form is on quick ground - and he ran poorly the one time he encountered ‘heavy’.
The more rain that falls, the less his chance of winning…
Annual Invictus should have no issue with the ground - but there are question marks over him, based on his 2 most recent starts.
He was pulled up at Aintree in December - and then seemed to run a very moody race at Plumpton, last month.
The form book shows that he was only beaten just over 2 lengths by Elixir de Nutz - and that’s reasonable form. However, he got well behind early - and finished strongly - suggesting he may have a touch of temperament.
The fitting of first time cheek pieces, also suggests that he might be a bit of a ‘thinker’…
Northern challengers, Corach Rambler and Doyen Breed, look more straightforward.
The former won a decent novice handicap at Cheltenham in December - and then finished fourth in the Classic chase at Warwick last month.
They are both solid pieces of form - if not quite at the level you’d expect from a grade 2 winner.
Similarly, Doyen Breed ran well when runner up to Bushypark at Kelso and also when filling the same position behind Threeunderthrufive at Warwick.
Again, that’s fair form - if a little limited.
Fern Hill ran well when runner up to Grumpy Charlie at Newbury.
He could get an uncontested lead tomorrow - and if he does, then his chance would have to be respected.
J’Ai Froid is the final runner - and whilst he has finished behind both Doyen Breed and Corach Rambler on his 2 starts this season, he is open to improvement and may just be a slow learner !
2:25
With Ask me Early expected to run at Wincanton (assuming it goes ahead), there’s likely to be a significant R4 to the early prices for this race.
That will result in Fiddleontheroof being a very strong favourite - and whilst it’s understandable that he heads the market, I wouldn’t want to take too short a price on him…
For a start, he’s not been seen for nearly 3 months.
That was when finishing runner up in the Ladbroke trophy - and whilst that was a very good effort, he’ll be running from a mark 5lb higher tomorrow.
Of more significance, the form of the Ladbroke trophy hasn’t really worked out…
Also, based on running at Newbury, early last season, Fiddleontheroof is held by Caribean Boy.
Admittedly the Tizzard stable is in much better form this season - but Fiddlerontheroof has 4 lengths to make up with Caribean Boy - and will be 6lb worse off at the weights.
It took Caribean Boy 7 runs before he again managed to get his head in front - that was on his most recent start at Kempton.
He did well to win that day, having looked beaten, running to the final fence.
A 4lb rating rise for that effort is quite lenient, and he still looks fairly handicapped off a mark of 149 (and not just compared to Fiddlerontheroof !).
Hold that Taught represents Venetia - and despite being 3lb wrong in the weights, he definitely has a chance.
He’s disappointed on his 2 most recent starts - but the first of those was in the Welsh National, when he didn’t get home over the extended trip.
He’s only 7 - and still improving - and can boast some decent form from last season.
Larry won a race over tomorrows course and distance, at the end of October.
That was a good effort - and he will be running from a mark just 3lb higher tomorrow.
That’s because he has disappointed on his 2 subsequent starts - but the trip has been a valid reason for that (too far on the first occasion - and too short on the second)
Back over the ‘correct’ distance - and with a 3lb claimer offsetting the rating rise, he must have a decent chance.
Cobolobo ran well when runner up over course and distance on his most recent start - but will face tougher opposition tomorrow.
Fortescue also ran well on his most recent start, when third in the Peter Marsh chase at Haydock.
The form of that race was advertised last weekend by Royal Pagaille - and if Fortescue runs to the same level tomorrow, he should be involved in the finish.
Regal Encore is the final one worthy of a mention.
He’s an Ascot specialist - who has run in this race 5 times previously - winning once and being placed on the other 4 occasions.
He will be running from a mark which is lower than he has run from previously - but that’s because he is now 14 and appears to be in decline.
The question is which is dropping fastest - his handicap rating or his level of ability ?!
3:00
Despite there being 13 runners, the early betting suggests that this race can be whittled down to 3 or 4…
Good Risk at All has been installed a very short priced fav, on the back of 3 second placed finishes this season.
He was a beaten favourite on 2 of those occasions - and runner up to Jonbon on the other.
It’s probably that run - along with his most recent one at Warwick (when he finished strongly) - that have persuaded the bookmakers that he’s the one to beat tomorrow - and they may well be right.
He almost certainly has far more talent, than his current mark of 127 would suggest - the tricky bit appears to be getting him to effectively utilise it.
If everything drops right tomorrow, then he will take a lot of beating - the question is whether everything will drop right…
Cap du Mathan could be a formidable rival.
He hacked up at Taunton last month, when returning from a 2 year absence.
The handicapper has raised him 9lb for that win - but that may not be enough, as he really did win very easily.
Certainly, his new mark of 132 still looks workable - even if he hasn’t got much form in the book to justify it…
Third fav, Zarcony Rebel is just as difficult to get a handle on.
He’s only had 5 runs over hurdles - winning 2 of the last 3 - and finishing runner up in between.
That was his sole run in a handicap and does raise the question of whether he is well handicapped.
On the flip side, he clearly still has plenty of scope for improvement.
Highway One o Two has the most solid form in the race, courtesy of his last time out second in the Lanzarote hurdle.
He’s only been raised 1lb for that run - and is likely to appreciate tomorrows slightly shorter trip.
It’s hard to see him not running well (and at least placing).
If the ground gets really soft, then Ballybegg will become interesting.
He won his most recent start at Uttoxeter, in heavy ground, and looks well suited to those conditions.
He’s been raised 6lb for that - but it’s interesting to see that 10lb claimer Daire McConville has been booked.
Kerry Lee is using his claim very carefully…
Picadilly Line could be of interest on her debut for Alan King - the market is likely to advise.
Whilst of the outsiders, Straw Fan Jack is the one that interest me most.
He was unplaced in what has turned out to be, a particularly strong renewal of the Greatwood hurdle - before finishing sixth to Tamar Bridge at Aintree.
As a result of those 2 runs, he finds himself on a mark 1lb lower than when runner up at Cheltenham on his seasonal debut in October.
The fitting of first time cheek pieces is an interesting move and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him outrun his odds.
3:38
Whilst this might not be the classiest grade 1 chase ever run - it’s still an intriguing contest…
Fakir D’oudaries heads the early betting.
He bolted up in last seasons Melling chase at Aintree - but that was a weaker race than tomorrows.
In truth, he probably achieved more on his previous outing, when runner up to Allaho in the Ryanair chase at Cheltenham.
He faced a true grade 1 performer, at his peak that day - and Fakir lost little in defeat.
He’s finished behind Allaho in his 2 most recent starts this season - but that merely enables us to get a better handle on him.
Fakir D’oudaries certainly sets the standard for this race - but he is beatable…
Like Fakir, St Calvados has finished runner up in a Ryanair chase.
He was beaten just a neck by Min in the 2020 renewal of the race - form which puts him on a par with Fakir.
He’s only run 3 times since then - and two of those runs were in the King George.
On both occasions, he looked like playing a big part in the finish - but failed to get home.
He drops back in trip by 3 furlongs tomorrow - and that looks to be a smart move.
Fanion Destruval takes the step up to Grade 1 company tomorrow, having run in 3 handicaps this season.
In fairness, they were good quality handicaps - and he ran well in them. He’s also a young horse, who is clearly on the upgrade.
All this said, grade 1 company does represent a significant rise in class.
Mister Fisher beat Eldorado Allen on is most recent start at Kempton - and the runner up franked that form last weekend, when winning at Newbury.
The main worry for Mister Fisher would be very soft ground, as he’s a horse who’s at his best on a decent surface.
Dashel Drasher won this race last year, but it was a much weaker renewal.
That said, he’s an admirable horse and he will doubtless give his all in trying to follow up tomorrow.
One thing that may work in his favour, is that he’s the only confirmed front runner in the race and so it’s quite likely that he will get an uncontested lead.
If that does happen, then he could prove difficult to pass…
Half chances can be given to all 3 of the outsiders.
Lostintranslation won a grade 2 over course and distance in November; whilst Waiting Patiently won this race (beating Cue Card) 4 years ago - and Two for Gold was a game winner of the Fleur de Lys chase at Lingfield on his most recent start (beating Dashel Drasher).
Haydock
2:05
Third Wind won this race 12 months ago - but as a result of that, he has to carry a 6lb penalty tomorrow.
Whilst that won’t necessarily stop him from following up, it won’t make life any easier !
He’s also not shown a great deal in his 3 subsequent runs - tho there was a little more promise in his third to Sporting John, on his most recent start at Warwick.
Thomas Darby and Molly Ollys Wishes are the other penalised runners in the race - and they are vying for favouritism.
The former has the strongest form in the book, courtesy of a win in a grade 2 event at Newbury in November - and a fourth placing in the Long Walk hurdle on his most recent start.
The question with him, is the suitability of 3 miles on very heavy ground…
That’s also a slight concern with Molly Ollys Wishes - though she is more likely to cope with it.
She’s won 5 of her last 7 races - however all 5 wins have been in mares only contests and she’s been beaten on the 2 occasions that she’s faced open company.
Top Ville Ben made a successful return to hurdling on his most recent start, when beating Emitom at Lingfield.
He will have no issue with heavy ground (in fact, he’ll relish it), and he is likely to get an uncontested lead.
The only question is whether he is good enough…
In fairness, he should be good enough to again beat Emitom; whilst it’s also quite hard to make a case for Wholestone, who is returning after 16 months off the course.
At his peak, he would have had a very good chance - but he’s now 11 and seemed in decline even before his absence…
2:40
This looks a particularly competitive contest, in which most of the runners can be given a chance…
Secret Reprieve heads the early betting.
He won last seasons Welsh National - and was sent off favourite for this years renewal, but could only manage to finish fifth.
However, that wasn’t a bad effort as it was his seasonal debut.
He’s been dropped 2lb for the run, so finds himself tomorrow, on a mark just 4lb higher than the one from which he won the 2020 Welsh National.
That suggests he is well handicapped - particularly as he’s only 8 and therefore still open to plenty of improvement.
Sam Brown finished an excellent second to Royal Pagaille on his most recent start, in the Peter Marsh chase.
That was a very good run - and one that Sam Brown had threatened, for quite some time.
There is no doubt that he’s a talented horse - though he does need soft (or heavy) ground.
He seems well suited by Haydock - so provided he stays the trip, he should put in a big run.
Brostol de Mai is a Haydock specialist - and despite top weight, now looks well handicapped.
At his peak he was rated 173 and finished third in the Gold cup - tomorrow he will be running off a mark of 159…
Clearly he’s not quite as good as he once was - but 3m4f in the Haydock mud should be perfect for him.
Blaklion is another who is past his peak - but as he’s now 13, that’s understandable !
He’s been in tremendous form this season, winning twice at Haydock - most recently over tomorrows distance.
A 9lb rating rise for a 13 year old does seem a little harsh - but he won so easily, the handicapper had little choice.
It’s likely that he’ll need to have another 5lb in hand of his mark if he’s to win tomorrow - but that’s not completely impossible.
The Galloping Bear was a good winner at Lingfield last month, and must have a reasonable chance of following up off a 5lb higher mark; whilst Enqarde won over the course just before Christmas - but he will have his work cut out to follow up off a 9lb higher mark.
Time to Get Up would be a danger to everything, if he could recapture his form of last spring.
He was a convincing winner of the Midlands National - and would have every chance off a 6lb higher mark, if in the same kind of form.
Wincanton
3:20
Just 4 will go to post for this - and realistically, only 2 of them are likely to count.
For a £70K pot, the course executive are entitled to feel disappointed…
That said, the main 2 are both good horses - and it could end up a decent race.
Goshen hacked up in the race last year - and on soft ground tomorrow, he could easily repeat the feat.
He certainly looked good last time, when hammering Guard your Dreams at Sandown - and there can be little doubt, that given the right conditions, he’s a serious horse.
He gets the right conditions tomorrow, so it should take a good one to beat him…
And in fairness, Adagio could be a good one.
He was a very decent juvenile last season - when he finished runner up in grade 1 hurdles at both Cheltenham and Aintree.
However, he arguably surpassed that on his debut this season.
That was in the Greatwood hurdle at Cheltenham in November, when he again finished runner up. However, he carried top weight in that race and was beaten less than a length by West Cork.
Time has subsequently shown that to be a particularly hot renewal of the race - thereby reflecting very positively on Adagio.
Ofcourse, there should be a big difference between a handicap (be it a top class one) and a grade 2 race (like tomorrows) - but Adagio is officially only rated 4lb inferior to Goshen and he will receive 3lb from him tomorrow.
He is also a much more straightforward horse.
Ultimately, I think you pay your money and make your choice…
Neither of the other 2 should be good enough to win.
Assuming the ground is soft (or worse), I would prefer the chance of Llandinabo Lad - but at best, he should only be chasing home either Goshen or Adagio (or both of them !).
2:05
Third Wind won this race 12 months ago - but as a result of that, he has to carry a 6lb penalty tomorrow.
Whilst that won’t necessarily stop him from following up, it won’t make life any easier !
He’s also not shown a great deal in his 3 subsequent runs - tho there was a little more promise in his third to Sporting John, on his most recent start at Warwick.
Thomas Darby and Molly Ollys Wishes are the other penalised runners in the race - and they are vying for favouritism.
The former has the strongest form in the book, courtesy of a win in a grade 2 event at Newbury in November - and a fourth placing in the Long Walk hurdle on his most recent start.
The question with him, is the suitability of 3 miles on very heavy ground…
That’s also a slight concern with Molly Ollys Wishes - though she is more likely to cope with it.
She’s won 5 of her last 7 races - however all 5 wins have been in mares only contests and she’s been beaten on the 2 occasions that she’s faced open company.
Top Ville Ben made a successful return to hurdling on his most recent start, when beating Emitom at Lingfield.
He will have no issue with heavy ground (in fact, he’ll relish it), and he is likely to get an uncontested lead.
The only question is whether he is good enough…
In fairness, he should be good enough to again beat Emitom; whilst it’s also quite hard to make a case for Wholestone, who is returning after 16 months off the course.
At his peak, he would have had a very good chance - but he’s now 11 and seemed in decline even before his absence…
2:40
This looks a particularly competitive contest, in which most of the runners can be given a chance…
Secret Reprieve heads the early betting.
He won last seasons Welsh National - and was sent off favourite for this years renewal, but could only manage to finish fifth.
However, that wasn’t a bad effort as it was his seasonal debut.
He’s been dropped 2lb for the run, so finds himself tomorrow, on a mark just 4lb higher than the one from which he won the 2020 Welsh National.
That suggests he is well handicapped - particularly as he’s only 8 and therefore still open to plenty of improvement.
Sam Brown finished an excellent second to Royal Pagaille on his most recent start, in the Peter Marsh chase.
That was a very good run - and one that Sam Brown had threatened, for quite some time.
There is no doubt that he’s a talented horse - though he does need soft (or heavy) ground.
He seems well suited by Haydock - so provided he stays the trip, he should put in a big run.
Brostol de Mai is a Haydock specialist - and despite top weight, now looks well handicapped.
At his peak he was rated 173 and finished third in the Gold cup - tomorrow he will be running off a mark of 159…
Clearly he’s not quite as good as he once was - but 3m4f in the Haydock mud should be perfect for him.
Blaklion is another who is past his peak - but as he’s now 13, that’s understandable !
He’s been in tremendous form this season, winning twice at Haydock - most recently over tomorrows distance.
A 9lb rating rise for a 13 year old does seem a little harsh - but he won so easily, the handicapper had little choice.
It’s likely that he’ll need to have another 5lb in hand of his mark if he’s to win tomorrow - but that’s not completely impossible.
The Galloping Bear was a good winner at Lingfield last month, and must have a reasonable chance of following up off a 5lb higher mark; whilst Enqarde won over the course just before Christmas - but he will have his work cut out to follow up off a 9lb higher mark.
Time to Get Up would be a danger to everything, if he could recapture his form of last spring.
He was a convincing winner of the Midlands National - and would have every chance off a 6lb higher mark, if in the same kind of form.
Wincanton
3:20
Just 4 will go to post for this - and realistically, only 2 of them are likely to count.
For a £70K pot, the course executive are entitled to feel disappointed…
That said, the main 2 are both good horses - and it could end up a decent race.
Goshen hacked up in the race last year - and on soft ground tomorrow, he could easily repeat the feat.
He certainly looked good last time, when hammering Guard your Dreams at Sandown - and there can be little doubt, that given the right conditions, he’s a serious horse.
He gets the right conditions tomorrow, so it should take a good one to beat him…
And in fairness, Adagio could be a good one.
He was a very decent juvenile last season - when he finished runner up in grade 1 hurdles at both Cheltenham and Aintree.
However, he arguably surpassed that on his debut this season.
That was in the Greatwood hurdle at Cheltenham in November, when he again finished runner up. However, he carried top weight in that race and was beaten less than a length by West Cork.
Time has subsequently shown that to be a particularly hot renewal of the race - thereby reflecting very positively on Adagio.
Ofcourse, there should be a big difference between a handicap (be it a top class one) and a grade 2 race (like tomorrows) - but Adagio is officially only rated 4lb inferior to Goshen and he will receive 3lb from him tomorrow.
He is also a much more straightforward horse.
Ultimately, I think you pay your money and make your choice…
Neither of the other 2 should be good enough to win.
Assuming the ground is soft (or worse), I would prefer the chance of Llandinabo Lad - but at best, he should only be chasing home either Goshen or Adagio (or both of them !).
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