Best bets
Exeter3:30
Emmpressive Lady 0.5pt win 5/2 (target 11/4 - that's a fair price)
4:30
Elegant Escape 0.5pt win 9/2 (target 5/1 - that's a fair price)
Matrix bets
Exeter
4:30
Jerrysback 1 unit win CEP 5.4 FP 5
Punchestown
2:40
Brace Yourself 1 unit win CEP 24 FP 17
4:30
Jerrysback 1 unit win CEP 5.4 FP 5
Punchestown
2:40
Brace Yourself 1 unit win CEP 24 FP 17
Despite leaving it until 10:00 before I issued this morning,
it was clear that the markets were nowhere near robust enough…
I did think that they would have settled by that time - but I was wrong !
Worse than that, the 2 horses I was interested in, were the subject of huge support.
It’s hard to know what to do in such a situation - I should maybe have just passed on the day, but I felt committed to the bets.
Suffice to say, I appreciate that very few of you will have managed to get the advised odds, so I will settle at BSP (if required !)
I suspect that both horses will drift, close to the off - but I guess that might not happen.
Anyway, in terms of the thinking behind the days bets…
Exeter
Emmpressive Lady stands out in the 3:30 - the question is simply, what’s an acceptable price…
She will relish the likely soft ground - and is probably a fair bit ahead of her current mark.
Half chances can be given to all of her rivals - but only half chances…
In terms of a price, then 5/2 is probably fair, if you can get it !
Snow Leopardess should win the 4:00, provided she is close to her best.
She has been a revelation this season - but hasn’t run for a couple of months.
Connections want to get her rating high enough for her to run in the Grand National - and she is likely to need to win, in order for that to happen.
Chilli Filli looks the main danger - with Destinee Royale possibly over-priced.
However, it’s not a race that I want to bet in…
I am pretty keen on Elegant Escape in the 4:30 - but it would appear I’m not the only one !
He opened up at 10/1 last night - and held a lot of appeal at that price.
He was nibbled in the early betting - but even the 8/1 first thing this morning, would have been fine.
However, then the serious betting began !
Looking at oddschecker, he was backed into 7/1 at 7:00 this morning; and then 6/1, just after 8:00. 5/1 at 9:00 - and 4/1 at 10:00 !
It’s nearly impossible for me to tip something where the price is running away like that - and maybe I shouldn’t have done.
The trouble is, I really do think that he’s going to take a huge amount of beating - particularly as he will also need a rating rise, if he’s to get into the Grand National field.
In terms of his rivals, then Jerrysback stands out - though he wouldn’t want it too soft. He’s worth a saver for the Matrix, in case the ground isn’t as bad as I expect…
Punchestown
The Grand National trial (2:40) looks a bit of a minefield…
I like Stones and Roses best - but he’s been backed into favouritism, and I don’t like him sufficiently to chase down his price.
There are a number of unexposed ones who are open to lots of improvement, now they are racing over a marathon trip - but the market is wise to them.
By contrast, I think the market has under-estimated Brace Yourself.
He showed lots of potential last season - and whilst he is making his seasonal debut this afternoon, if he is straight, then he is sufficiently well handicapped to go close.
He’s worth a small play for the Matrix at big odds.
I did think that they would have settled by that time - but I was wrong !
Worse than that, the 2 horses I was interested in, were the subject of huge support.
It’s hard to know what to do in such a situation - I should maybe have just passed on the day, but I felt committed to the bets.
Suffice to say, I appreciate that very few of you will have managed to get the advised odds, so I will settle at BSP (if required !)
I suspect that both horses will drift, close to the off - but I guess that might not happen.
Anyway, in terms of the thinking behind the days bets…
Exeter
Emmpressive Lady stands out in the 3:30 - the question is simply, what’s an acceptable price…
She will relish the likely soft ground - and is probably a fair bit ahead of her current mark.
Half chances can be given to all of her rivals - but only half chances…
In terms of a price, then 5/2 is probably fair, if you can get it !
Snow Leopardess should win the 4:00, provided she is close to her best.
She has been a revelation this season - but hasn’t run for a couple of months.
Connections want to get her rating high enough for her to run in the Grand National - and she is likely to need to win, in order for that to happen.
Chilli Filli looks the main danger - with Destinee Royale possibly over-priced.
However, it’s not a race that I want to bet in…
I am pretty keen on Elegant Escape in the 4:30 - but it would appear I’m not the only one !
He opened up at 10/1 last night - and held a lot of appeal at that price.
He was nibbled in the early betting - but even the 8/1 first thing this morning, would have been fine.
However, then the serious betting began !
Looking at oddschecker, he was backed into 7/1 at 7:00 this morning; and then 6/1, just after 8:00. 5/1 at 9:00 - and 4/1 at 10:00 !
It’s nearly impossible for me to tip something where the price is running away like that - and maybe I shouldn’t have done.
The trouble is, I really do think that he’s going to take a huge amount of beating - particularly as he will also need a rating rise, if he’s to get into the Grand National field.
In terms of his rivals, then Jerrysback stands out - though he wouldn’t want it too soft. He’s worth a saver for the Matrix, in case the ground isn’t as bad as I expect…
Punchestown
The Grand National trial (2:40) looks a bit of a minefield…
I like Stones and Roses best - but he’s been backed into favouritism, and I don’t like him sufficiently to chase down his price.
There are a number of unexposed ones who are open to lots of improvement, now they are racing over a marathon trip - but the market is wise to them.
By contrast, I think the market has under-estimated Brace Yourself.
He showed lots of potential last season - and whilst he is making his seasonal debut this afternoon, if he is straight, then he is sufficiently well handicapped to go close.
He’s worth a small play for the Matrix at big odds.
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