Tomorrow will be the final day of the 2021-21 NH season - and also the final day of the TVB season.
There is just the one card - at Sandown - and the fields, at least for the 3 graded races, are a little disappointing…
I’d be inclined to blame the quick ground - but in reality, it’s been the same situation, for almost the entire season.
I’ve lost count of the number of small field condition races that I’ve previewed - and there are 3 more tomorrow.
As a consequence, I’m likely to be looking for bets in the handicaps - and just hoping that someone else doesn’t beat me to the punch ! (which has also happened, many times this season).
Here are my early thoughts on the 7 races that make up tomorrows Sandown card.
Sandown
1:50
With 13 unexposed novices competing, the opening race on the card looks a particularly tough one to solve.
I was quite taken by Whizz Kid, on his most recent start at Aintree, when I felt he looked the best horse in a fair race.
He ran a bit too freely that day and could only finish fourth - but if he can settle better tomorrow (and Sam TD in the saddle, may be a help with that), then he looks the one to beat.
That said, he faces a host of potentially decent rivals, headed by Knappers Hills.
He was a top class bumper horse last season - and whilst he’s not hit the same heights over hurdles this season, he has still posted some decent efforts.
His best runs have come over 2 miles on quick ground - and he will get that tomorrow.
Whilst he has a lot of weight to carry, he could be different class to his rivals…
Doctor Parnassus ran in the Triumph hurdle on his most recent start.
He didn’t feature in that race - but he is likely to find this much easier.
He won his 2 starts prior to the Triumph - and was only beaten 12 lengths at Cheltenham.
He will receive the 8lb juvenile allowance tomorrow, and that could be decisive…
Hasty Parisian and Privatory are the 2 other 4 year olds running in the race - and cases can be made for both of them.
The former represents the Milton Harris stable which has done so well with juveniles this season; whilst the latter has finished first and second on his 2 starts for Gary Moore, and has plenty of scope for improvement.
Head Law is on a steep upward curve for Jonjo - and certainly can’t be discounted; whilst Alto Alto was a good winner last time at Plumpton, having shown ability on his previous start.
He’s another who has plenty of scope for improvement.
The remaining 5 runners aren’t quite as appealing - but equally can’t be completely ruled out.
2:25
It’s disappointing to see just the 4 runners declared for this - even if all of them can be given a chance.
A small field and 2m6f on good ground, should be ideal for Mister Fisher - and he looks the one to beat.
He was quite impressive when beating Eldorado Allen in similar conditions at Kempton in January - though he has disappointed in 2 subsequent starts.
However, the ground was against him at Ascot the following month: whilst a bad mistake cost him any chance at Aintree, a fortnight ago.
He finished runner up to Frodon in this race 12 months ago - and it’s not hard to see him going one place better tomorrow.
That said, on official adjusted ratings he should struggle to beat Saint Calvados.
He also ran in the Ascot and Aintree races - but like Mister Fisher, didn’t really perform in either race.
I would expect him to also do much better tomorrow, in a small field and on quick ground - and it’s not easy to choose between the pair.
Nuts Well and Erne River both have a bit more to prove - but certainly can’t be dismissed.
The former is a serial over-achiever (a rare thing in racing !) - and whilst he looks to have a bit too much on his plate tomorrow, it wouldn't be a massive surprise if he rose to the occasion.
Erne River looks the least likely winner, as a novice taking on experienced horses.
He was well fancied for a Grade1 novice event at Aintree on his most recent start, but fell before the serious action had got underway.
Tomorrows small field will probably help him - but it will be some achievement if he can win a Grade 2 open contest on just his fourth start over fences (and also on the back of a fall).
3:00
Whilst this race has one more runner than the previous one, it’s arguably less competitive, as it’s quite hard to make a case for the 2 outsiders…
Rouge Vif is held by Nube Negra on a couple of form lines; whilst Sky Pirate doesn’t look good enough for a race of this class (he is rated 17lb inferior to Nube Negra).
Of the remaining 3 runners, then Sceau Royal looks the least likely winner.
He’s an admirable horse - and he ran really well on his most recent start, when finishing third at Aintree.
That was one his first try at 2m4f - and whilst I don’t expect him to be inconvenienced by the step back in trip, I don’t think he will be good enough to beat Greaneteen or Nube Negra.
Greaneteen had his measure in this race 12 months ago - and as the younger, more progressive horse, it’s reasonable to think that will again by the case tomorrow.
Greaneteen built on that win, when taking the Tingle Creek on his second start this season.
He was then put in his place by Shishkin at Kempton; before disappointing badly behind Chacun Pour Soi at the Dublin Racing festival.
Greaneteen didn’t run any kind of a race that day - and his effort can almost certainly be ignored.
If it is, then based on his win in the Tingle Creek, he is very much the one to beat.
When he won the Tingle Creek, he had Nube Negra 12 lengths back in fourth place - though the suggestion was that Nube Negra didn’t run his race that day (he was sent off 4/1 second fav).
Nube Negra is a horse who runs his best races fresh, so the fact he’s not been seen since December is a positive.
He will have his work cut out to reverse the form with Greaneteen - but he will have perfect conditions tomorrow and Greanenteen is likely to find him a much tougher proposition.
Choosing between the pair isn’t easy and the odds aren’t really there to take a risk.
At 2/1, I’d be prepared to take a chance on Nube Negra - but it remains to be seen whether he will ever reach that price…
3:32
The first 3 home is last years renewal of the B365 Gold cup will renew rivalry in this years race - and it’ll be interesting to see which one of the trio comes out on top.
12 months ago, Enrillo was first past the post, with Potterman, second and Kittys Light, third; however, the winner badly impeded the third placed horse - and as a consequence, the stewards placed Enrillo behind Kittys Light, meaning that Potterman was the official race winner !
There shouldn’t be much between the 3 of them again tomorrow - though Enrillo travelled through last years race like the best horse - and if he consents to settle a bit better tomorrow, he’s likely to take lot of beating.
That said, as a 6 year old, Kittys Light has probably got the greatest scope for improvement; whilst Potterman will come into tomorrows race in good form, having won his most recent start at Kelso.
In short, each of them can be given a chance…
Cap du Nord can also be given a chance.
He finished fifth in last years race - but was only beaten 5 lengths and is better off at the weights with the other 3 tomorrow.
He also arguably recorded a personal best on his penultimate start, when taking the Coral Trophy at Kempton, from Kittys Light.
He’s subsequently disappointed at Aintree - but it wouldn’t be a massive surprise if he were to bounce back.
Like Cap du Nord and Kittys Light, Win my Wings is trained by Christian Williams - and she put up a phenomenal performance on her most recent start, when romping home in the Scottish national.
It’s rare to see a top class handicap won so easily - though she has paid for it with a 14lb rating rise - and is likely to find life much tougher under top weight tomorrow.
On strict reading of the form book, Win my Wings has absolutely no chance of beating Musical Slave.
The pair clashed at Exeter in January and Win my Wings came out on top by 2 lengths.
However she will be 23lb worse off tomorrow - and even allowing for the huge improvement she has subsequently made, that should be enough for the form to be reversed.
In fairness, Musical Slave hasn’t stood still himself, winning 2 of his 3 subsequent races - including at Haydock last Saturday.
He is able to run off the same mark tomorrow, as it is an early closing race - and provided he has recovered from last weekend exertions, he should go very well.
Flegmatic has won his 2 most recent races for the Skeltons - and appears to have been targeted at this.
However, he’s never run beyond 3 miles - so his ability to stay the extended trip will need to be taken on trust.
Streets of Doyen is a potentially interesting Irish raider.
With just 5 runs over fences, he is very hard to assess - however, he will love the quick ground and should relish the trip.
Furthermore, his trainer, John McConnel, has a very good record with his runners in England.
Of the outsiders, then Fidux and El Paso Wood, appeal most…
Both ran last time in the Scottish National, behind Win my WIngs.
Fidux did much the better of the pair that day, finishing fourth - and can definitely be given a chance, off a 2lb lower mark.
It’s harder to make a case for El Paso Wood, based on that run. However, I quite fancied him that day, on the back of a really good run in the Midlands National.
If he can bounce back to that level of form, then he is certainly capable of outrunning his odds.
4:07
Again, there’s a disappointing turn out for this graded hurdle race - with just the 4 runners…
Assuming his is fully tuned, then Scaramanga looks the one to beat.
His official mark of 150 is only a pound higher than that of McFabulous and Fussil Raffles.
However, the former has to concede him 6lb; whilst the latter will be having his first run over hurdles, in more than 2 years.
Scaramanga himself, hasn’t run over hurdles since winning on this card 12 months ago. However, he ran on the flat over the summer - so it’s only 7 months since he last set foot on a racecourse.
That could be a concern - but he defied a similar absence when winning at Ascot last March - and I’m confident that Paul Nicholls will have him fully tuned for this.
The fact that Harry Cobden is riding, instead of taking the mount on stablemate McFabulous, also seems to support that view - particularly as the last named has the best recent form in the race, courtesy of his third in the Grade 1 Aintree hurdle, a fortnight ago.
McFabulous was a little flattered to secure third place in that race - but he still ran well and tomorrows contest isn’t as strong.
Indefatigable could prove to be Scaramanga biggest rival.
She finished runner up in this race 12 months ago - and has run a number of good races this season.
She was impressive when winning at Wetherby in October - and was a touch unlucky to be beaten by Martello Sky at Cheltenham in December.
She was also in the process of running a big race at that course on her most recent start, when falling at the second last in the mares race at the festival.
Provided she has fully recovered from that, she should again go very close tomorrow.
4:40
This is the smallest field handicap on the card - but it’s not an easy race to figure out…
Beakstown has been installed the early favourite on the back of his recent win at Ayr.
That was arguably in a slightly stronger race - but he won well, kicking a few lengths clear after jumping the third last and holding on when challenged.
He has been raised 6lb for the win - but that’s fair enough, and provided he’s in the same form tomorrow, he should take the beating.
Brief Ambition has won his last 3 starts - and has every chance of notching a 4 timer.
He was impressive when making all at Kempton in November - and has subsequently won 2 small field races at Ludlow.
The biggest issue for him is that he is now 17lb higher in the weights - and will be facing much stuffer opposition.
However, if he can get into a rhythm up front (as he did at Kempton), he could again prove hard to peg back.
That said, Beakstown also likes to race prominently - as does Flic ou Voyou and Presentandcounting - so there could be plenty of pace in the race.
That would suit Up the Straight, Jacamar and Nelsons River.
The former is the best handicapped horse in the race - but he has become a bit disappointing.
By contrast, Jacamar isn’t particularly well handicapped - but that’s because he takes his chances when he gets them !
He’s won 2 of his last 5 starts - and definitely has a chance of making it 3 from 6, tomorrow.
Nelsons River also has a chance,
He’s only run twice before over fences - and has finished first and second, despite not really being bred for the job.
I instinctively feel that something should be too good for him tomorrow - though I wouldn’t be surprised to see him outrun his odds.
5:15
The final race of the NH season - and it looks tricky enough to solve…
Press your Luck just about sets the race standard, courtesy of his last time out win at Kempton in a similar race.
He was quite impressive that day - following up a win at Wincanton, in February - and whilst he was raised 8lb for that effort, it may not be enough to stop him completing his hattrick.
Fifty Ball is ahead of him in the market, following his last time out win Ascot.
He should still be competitive off a 3lb higher mark - but this will be a tougher test.
Samarrive was really impressive in winning a decent race over the course in October.
However, the handicapper didn’t take kindly to that and handed him an 11lb rating rise.
He’s not featured in 2 subsequent races - but has dropped 4lb in the rating as a consequence,
He steps up in trip by half a mile tomorrow - and it wouldn’t be a great surprise to see him bounce back to form.
Champagne Court finished 6 lengths behind Press Your Luck at Wincanton - but will be a stone better off tomorrow.
That should give him a fair chance of reversing the form, returned to hurdles after a couple of solid runs over fences.
Kamaxos ran really well when third to Dashel Drasher at Newbury 3 runs ago - and whilst he did no more than expected when hacking up at Market Rasen on his most recent start, the win may well have boosted his confidence…
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