Best bets
Newbury2:10
Vivas 0.5pt win 10/1
Ayr
3:35
Stormy Judge 0.5pt win 7/1
Matrix bets
Ayr
1:50
The Golden Rebel 1 unit win CEP 8.8 FP 8
Strike a Pose 1 unit win CEP 14.5 FP 12
3:35
The Ferry Master 2 units win CEP 16 FP 13
El Paso Wood 2 units win CEP 38 FP 26
Chirico Vallis 1 unit win CEP 38 FP 30
Newbury
2:10
Bermeo 1 unit win CEP 5.6 FP 5.5
2:45
The Player Queen 1 unit win CEP 28 FP 21
1:50
The Golden Rebel 1 unit win CEP 8.8 FP 8
Strike a Pose 1 unit win CEP 14.5 FP 12
3:35
The Ferry Master 2 units win CEP 16 FP 13
El Paso Wood 2 units win CEP 38 FP 26
Chirico Vallis 1 unit win CEP 38 FP 30
Newbury
2:10
Bermeo 1 unit win CEP 5.6 FP 5.5
2:45
The Player Queen 1 unit win CEP 28 FP 21
A host of non runners - particularly at Newbury - made
issuing this morning, very tricky…
In truth, it’s not something I anticipated, as the ground at Newbury yesterday, looked fine to me.
Evidently, a number of trainers didn’t see it the same way !
Thankfully, it only affected one Best bet (Vivas) - though it also stopped me from issuing a couple of possible Matrix bets.
Here’s the thinking behind the path I eventually settled on !
Ayr
I like Malystic most in the Ayr opener (1:15) - but not sufficiently to suggest getting involved at 4/1…
He comes with risks - and is up against a few reasonable rivals.
Some Reign is arguably a bit of value at around 12/1 - but it’s a tough race to call, so I’ve chosen to just watch it !
The 1:50 is also a tough race to call - but I’m prepared to have a couple of shots at it, for the Matrix…
I feel that the favourite, Dusart, can be taken on - and the pair I want on side, are The Golden Rebel and Striking a Pose.
The former is of interest, stepping up to 3 miles. He a sound jumper - and if he can get into a rhythm up front, he could be hard to pass.
Striking a Pose needs to be forgiven a poor recent run - but his form prior to that was progressive, and he should benefit from running on better ground.
Anna Bunina is the one that interests me most in the 2:25 - but the price has gone.
In a way, that’s not surprising, as any form student could make a case for her, based on her handicap mark.
She looks to have been targeted at this race - but that may not be the case !
Certainly, there are sufficient doubts to resist her at 5/1…
The other possibility is Voix du Reve.
The trouble with him, is that whilst I ‘d expect him to run well, I’ll be surprised if he can win.
In short, another watching race…
in the 3:00 race, Do your Job was 5/2 yesterday - and at that price, he was a Best bet.
However, he is 7/4 this morning, and that is a bit too short…
I reckon that 2/1 is a ‘fair’ price - so anything above that is value.
Aside from him, Kiltealy Briggs could outrun his odds - but I would expect something (quite possibly Do your job !) to pick him off, close home…
I think there’s a chance that Stormy Judge could take the Scottish National (3:35) apart !
He’s clearly been targeted at the race, by a trainer desperate to win it - and the form of his win at Navan last March, couldn’t be stronger.
I’m surprised that the UK assessor has left him on his Irish mark - and I’m sure he is better than a 139 rated horse.
He is a ‘win or bust’ selection tho - and in a race of this nature, it makes sense to cover on a few others, for the Matrix.
The first is The Ferry Master - who ran really well in the race last year and is handicapped to go even better this time.
Next is El Paso Wood, who simply looks over-priced, based on his last time out fourth in the Midlands National.
The final one is Chiroco Vallis. He is probably a back to lay IR - but if he gets loose on the lead, then it’s worth taking a small chance that his stamina holds out…
Newbury
Non runners have really messed up the 1:35 race.
4 have come out this morning - including the early fav, Punctuation.
Rainyday Woman is the one I like best - but I wouldn’t be surprised to see any of her main 4 rivals, win.
In the circumstances, it has to be a watching race…
I’m pretty keen on Vivas in the 2:10.
It looks as if he’s been targeted at the race - and the ground has come right for him.
It’s not an overly strong race, and he is probably the best bet of the day.
I did see La Cavsa Nostra as a potential danger - so his withdrawal is a good thing !
The other one I fear, is Bermeo - and he is worth covering on the Matrix, to get your stake back, in case Harry Fry has rekindled his flame…
The 2:45 is another race which has been decimated by non runners.
The withdrawal of the top 2 in the market, gives the race a completely different complexion - and Nina the Terrier now looks as if she should be hard to beat.
That said, I think it’s worth taking a small risk on rank outsider, The Player Queen.
There is plenty of guesswork involved - but she has been sent a long way to run in the race and I wouldn’t be surprised to see her put up a bold show.
In truth, it’s not something I anticipated, as the ground at Newbury yesterday, looked fine to me.
Evidently, a number of trainers didn’t see it the same way !
Thankfully, it only affected one Best bet (Vivas) - though it also stopped me from issuing a couple of possible Matrix bets.
Here’s the thinking behind the path I eventually settled on !
Ayr
I like Malystic most in the Ayr opener (1:15) - but not sufficiently to suggest getting involved at 4/1…
He comes with risks - and is up against a few reasonable rivals.
Some Reign is arguably a bit of value at around 12/1 - but it’s a tough race to call, so I’ve chosen to just watch it !
The 1:50 is also a tough race to call - but I’m prepared to have a couple of shots at it, for the Matrix…
I feel that the favourite, Dusart, can be taken on - and the pair I want on side, are The Golden Rebel and Striking a Pose.
The former is of interest, stepping up to 3 miles. He a sound jumper - and if he can get into a rhythm up front, he could be hard to pass.
Striking a Pose needs to be forgiven a poor recent run - but his form prior to that was progressive, and he should benefit from running on better ground.
Anna Bunina is the one that interests me most in the 2:25 - but the price has gone.
In a way, that’s not surprising, as any form student could make a case for her, based on her handicap mark.
She looks to have been targeted at this race - but that may not be the case !
Certainly, there are sufficient doubts to resist her at 5/1…
The other possibility is Voix du Reve.
The trouble with him, is that whilst I ‘d expect him to run well, I’ll be surprised if he can win.
In short, another watching race…
in the 3:00 race, Do your Job was 5/2 yesterday - and at that price, he was a Best bet.
However, he is 7/4 this morning, and that is a bit too short…
I reckon that 2/1 is a ‘fair’ price - so anything above that is value.
Aside from him, Kiltealy Briggs could outrun his odds - but I would expect something (quite possibly Do your job !) to pick him off, close home…
I think there’s a chance that Stormy Judge could take the Scottish National (3:35) apart !
He’s clearly been targeted at the race, by a trainer desperate to win it - and the form of his win at Navan last March, couldn’t be stronger.
I’m surprised that the UK assessor has left him on his Irish mark - and I’m sure he is better than a 139 rated horse.
He is a ‘win or bust’ selection tho - and in a race of this nature, it makes sense to cover on a few others, for the Matrix.
The first is The Ferry Master - who ran really well in the race last year and is handicapped to go even better this time.
Next is El Paso Wood, who simply looks over-priced, based on his last time out fourth in the Midlands National.
The final one is Chiroco Vallis. He is probably a back to lay IR - but if he gets loose on the lead, then it’s worth taking a small chance that his stamina holds out…
Newbury
Non runners have really messed up the 1:35 race.
4 have come out this morning - including the early fav, Punctuation.
Rainyday Woman is the one I like best - but I wouldn’t be surprised to see any of her main 4 rivals, win.
In the circumstances, it has to be a watching race…
I’m pretty keen on Vivas in the 2:10.
It looks as if he’s been targeted at the race - and the ground has come right for him.
It’s not an overly strong race, and he is probably the best bet of the day.
I did see La Cavsa Nostra as a potential danger - so his withdrawal is a good thing !
The other one I fear, is Bermeo - and he is worth covering on the Matrix, to get your stake back, in case Harry Fry has rekindled his flame…
The 2:45 is another race which has been decimated by non runners.
The withdrawal of the top 2 in the market, gives the race a completely different complexion - and Nina the Terrier now looks as if she should be hard to beat.
That said, I think it’s worth taking a small risk on rank outsider, The Player Queen.
There is plenty of guesswork involved - but she has been sent a long way to run in the race and I wouldn’t be surprised to see her put up a bold show.
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