Bets/staking rationale

Matrix bets

Aintree

1:45
Serious Charges 1 unit win CEP 9.4 FP 10
Party Business 1 unit win CEP 7.6 FP 9
If the Cap Fits 1 unit win CEP 19 FP 21

2:25
Stage Star 1 unit win CEP 13.5 FP 11

4:15
Shan Blue 1 unit win CEP 4.1 FP 4.5
Scene not Heard 1 unit win CEP 15.5 FP 15
The Hollow Ginge 1 unit win CEP 44 FP 26

5:15
Longhouse Poet 2 units win CEP 20 FP 15
Escaria Ten 2 units win CEP 22 FP 15
Enjoy Dallen 1 unit win CEP 19 FP 17
Burrows Saint 1 unit win CEP 29 FP 21
Freewheelin Dylan 1 unit win 80 FP 40

It was a struggle to find strong (Best) bets,  both yesterday and Thursday - and today I found it impossible…

In truth, it didn’t really surprise me, as a card consisting of 3 ultra competitive handicaps, 3 conditions races with a short priced favourite - and a bumper, was always unlikely to yield a strong bet.

It was the same at the Cheltenham festival - and it’s clear that the Matrix is the best way to handle these big meetings.

As I half expected, watering took place after racing yesterday, so the ground is likely to be riding a bit slower today.
I can understand it - with the race in the spotlight, they need to make conditions as safe as they possibly can.

I assume the going will be on the soft side of good (possibly edging towards soft)…

With no Best bets, all of todays betting action is for the Matrix - here’s the thinking…


Aintree

I don’t have a massively strong opinion on the opener (1:45).
It’s easy enough to make cases for quite a few of the runners - but nothing really stands out.
If the Cap Fits is interesting at a price - back at the scene of his biggest win and re-united with Daryl Jacobs.
Whilst Party Business and Serious Charges have both got plenty of scope for improvement.
Remastered would be appealing on soft ground - but I’m assuming it won’t be quite soft enough for him.
Whilst Winter Fog has a good chance if he’s over his exertions from Cheltenham.
I’ve got to draw the line somewhere tho - so I’ll just cover the top 3 mentioned to minimum stakes, for the Matrix.

Whilst Three Stripe Life is the obvious one in the 2:25 - I suspect he is beatable.
The tricky part, is figuring out what might beat him…
It’s possible to construct a case of sorts for the next 6 in the betting (at least) - but not a particularly solid one !
I expected Stage Star to be a bit shorter than his current price (13), so he is worth a minimum, value-based, play for the Matrix…

If I suggested EW bets, then I’d be very tempted by Third Time Lucki in the 3:00.
I suspect he will have been primed for this - and whilst he has 4 lengths to find with Edwardstone, that one has had a long, hard season…
Gentleman at Arms can be given a chance - but the presence of For Pleasure, will make it hard for him to lead (which he likes to do).
I think the most likely result is for Edwardstone to beat Third Time Lucki - but I also think there’s a chance that the latter could win, if Edwardstone under-performs.
In short, Third Time Lucki looks close to an EW bet to nothing (even with just 2 places).
Officially though, it’s just a watching race…

The 3:35 is another watching race.
If the race is run to form, then Flooring Porter will win - but he’s a quirky character and whilst he won well at Cheltenham, it’s impossible to know how much the race took out of him.
If he under-performs, then Thyme Hill is the most likely one to take advantage - but he’s second favourite (at 3/1).
I could see Sire de Berlais outrunning his odds and maybe grabbing a place - though I struggle to see him winning…

Shan Blue should really win the 4:15 - assuming he’s able to run to his best.
He could easily have 10lb in hand of his mark - and if that’s the case, he’s unlikely to be beaten.
His last time out run in the Raynair is a slight worry - but he would probably be an odds on shot, without it !
Tea Clipper and Oscar Elite had hard enough races at Cheltenham - and The Hollow Ginge and Scene not Heard make more appeal, at bigger prices.
There is a worry that neither will be quite classy enough to win a race of this nature - but the former is well handicapped, whilst the latter has scope for improvement.
Both are worth siding with for the Matrix - with stakes covered on Shan Blue…

I did have half a mind to make Escaria Ten the days Best bet in the Grand National (5:15) - but I’ve cooled a little on him…
I still think he’s got a decent chance - but it’s possible that his inexperience will find him out.
I’ll put him in the Matrix instead - and add in a few others…
Longhouse Poet is now the one I fancy most for the race (just !).
He’s on an upward curve - and his trainer can be relied upon to have him spot on for this.
I’m prepared to give Burrows Saint another go after, his big run last year.
He didn’t seem to get home that day - and there’s a chance the same will happen today - but I’m hopeful that Willie and Paul Townend will find a way of stretching out his stamina !
Enjoy D’Allen is the next one I want onside. He has a very suitable profile - and his recent purchase by JP McManus, simply adds to his case.
Freewheelin Dylan is the final one - at a big price.
He easily won last years Irish National - and if he can bounce back to that form, he should go really well.

I don’t have a strong view on the finale (6:20).
I suspect the race will be won by one of Willie Mullins 2 runners (Rath Gaul Boy and Houlanbatordechais) - though I don’t know which one (the market is likely to advise).
I’ve had a few quid on Blow your Wad at a very big price - but more in hope than expectation…