Tuesday, April 19, 2022

Bets/staking rationale

Best bets

Aintree

2:55
Eldorado Allen 0.5pt win 7/1

Matrix bets

Aintree

1:45
War Lord 2 units win CEP 4.8 FP 4.5

2:55
Kemboy 2 units win CEP 6.2 FP 6

3:30
Monmiral 1 unit win CEP 10 FP 10
Glory and Fortune 1 unit win CEP 21 FP 17

4:05
Jett 2 units win CEP 3.6 FP 4
Cousin Pascal 1 unit win CEP 15.5 FP 13
Clondaw Westie 1 unit win CEP 90 FP 40

4:40
Bold Enough 2 units win CEP 13 FP 11
King D'Argent 1 unit win CEP 11 FP 10
Elixir de Nutz 1 unit win CEP 28 FP 21
Thyme White 1 unit win CEP 18 FP 15
The Last Day 1 unit win CEP 15.5 FP 15



Opportunities for bets are relatively limited on the opening day of the Grand National meeting - and the situation isn’t helped by uncertainty regarding the state of the ground…

I’ve done my best to try and establish underfoot conditions - but in fairness, with showers coming and going, it’s hard to say.

My assumption is that the ground will be riding on the soft side of good - hopefully no worse !

I’ve managed to find one Best bet on the day - and supported that with a few more for the Matrix.

Here’s my thinking…

Aintree

Erne River has come in for a lot of support in the opener (1:45) - which I find a little odd…
I do think he’s got a chance - but equally, he’s got a fair bit to prove - and a current price of 5/2 is too short.
As a consequence, his rivals are hitting backable prices.
War Lord and Pic D’Orhy are the 2 that interest me most - and at close to 4/1, the former is worth a couple of units, for the Matrix…

I can’t see an angle into the 2:20.
Pied Piper should win - and if he doesn’t Brazil probably will !
It’s impossible to construct anything other than a very speculative case, for the others.
I’ve had a couple of quid on In the Air at 80 on BF - but more in hope than expectation…
Officially, it’s a watching race.

It’s quite easy to make a case for all of the top 6 in the betting for the Bowl (2:55).
That said, I do think Eldorado Allen is over-priced at 7/1 (or even 13/2).
He has really impressed me on his last 2 starts - and whilst he did have a tough race at Cheltenham, he’s young horse, so I’m optimistic he will have fully recovered.
Of the others Kemboy is the one I fear most - as he has clearly been targeted at the race.
He is worth a saver for the Matrix…

I’ve changed my mind on the Aintree hurdle (3:30) - as I’ve decided that Epatante and Zanahiyr should be taken on.
Don’t get me wrong, I think they are the most likely winners - but there are question marks over them both and as each are less than 2/1, they warrant opposing…
Monmiral is the obvious one to take them on with, as he won at this meeting 12 months ago and still has plenty of scope.
Glory and Fortune is the other one I like.
This strikes me as the ideal race for him - and whilst he has a bit to find on official ratings, he’s on an upward curve.
I wouldn’t go mad on either - but both are worth small plays for the Matrix.

The 4:05 is nowhere near as competitive as the numbers suggest.
24 will go to post - but I doubt that 10 of them have a chance of winning…
The market probably has the right 2 at the top - but of the pair, I much prefer the chances of Jett.
3/1 seems very tight - but I can’t tackle the race and not have him on side.
Last years winner, Cousin Pascal, looks a fair bet at around 15: whilst the price of last years fourth, Clondaw Westie, is crazy.
They are both worth small speculative plays - with stakes covered on Jett.

The 4:40 looks very open - and ground conditions are likely to be key to the result.
Uncertainty in that area, makes me a little nervous about over-committing !
Having reviewed the race I now think that Bold Enough is the most likely winner, for Henry De Bromhead.
He has won the race with similar sorts in the past - and the horse appears to have been targeted at the race.
King D’Argent, Elixir de Nutz and Thyme White all want decent ground - so hopefully they will get it.
I’ll have the minimum stake on each of them - but would be prepared to increase, if the ground is riding in their favour.
By contrast, The Last day wants soft ground.
Again, I’ll have a minimum stake on him, but increase if the ground has moved in his favour.

There’s far too much guesswork required to consider getting involved with the 5:15.
All of the likely horses, are at the head of the market - and I would struggle to choose between them.
Ilovethenightlife and Roc of Dundee, are the pair who make most appeal at the bigger prices - but they are too speculative, to consider suggesting officially.

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