The final day of the 3 day Aintree meeting - Grand National day !
The ground had dried out quite a bit on Friday (surprisingly so) - and the going could easily be ‘good’ by Saturday - if they allow it to be !That’s the slight worry - if no rain falls, then they may again water...
It makes judging conditions very tricky.
Obviously the National is the big race of the day - but the card also contains a couple of equally frightening handicaps !
By contrast, the 3 conditions races look a bit too obvious (so very much like Cheltenham) - whilst the closing bumper is a race best avoided !
Here are my early thoughts…
Aintree
1:45
A good chunk of the field for this, last ran in the Pertemps final at the Cheltenham festival.
Included in their number, are the winner of that race, Third Wind; third placed, Mill Green; fourth placed, Winter Fog, sixth placed, If the Cap Fits and eighth placed, Coeur Serein.
Needless to say the handicapper has adjusted their respective weights, so they should all cross the line together.
Obviously that won’t happen - but it’s tricky to figure out which one will come out on top this time…
Winter Fog probably appeals most - as he was travelling best to the final flight, but was outstayed up the hill.
It was also just his second run for Emmet Mullins, so he should have scope for further improvement.
However the market is wise to him…
The other one that appeals is, If the Cap Fits.
He won the Grade 1 Liverpool hurdle over course and distance, 3 years ago - so we know that he will be well suited by conditions.
Away from that form-line, there are quite a few of interest.
The unexposed Serious Charges certainly holds some appeal.
He was very impressive when winning on his handicap debut at Uttoxeter last time - and whilst he has been raised 13lb for that win, he could still be well treated.
Remastered is certainly well treated, based on his chase form - and ran really well over the course and distance in November, when third to Koshari.
That run was a prep for The Ladbroke Trophy (which he was unlucky not to win), so the fact he ran so well, when probably not 100%, suggests he should be able to go very close in this, when presumably it has been the target.
Party Business is the final one of major interest.
He ran really well in the Martin Pipe at Cheltenham on his latest start, staying on strongly in the closing stages and suggesting that he will be well suited by the extra 4 furlongs of this race.
2:25
Whilst numerically, there’s a good turn out for this race (13 runners), Three Stripe Life does appear to stand out…
He has finished runner up in Grade 1s, on his 3 most recent starts - including last time, when he occupied that position behind Sir Gerhard in the Ballymore at Cheltenham.
That’s top class novice form - and if he runs to the same level tomorrow, he will be very hard to beat in this.
It’s interesting that Walking on Air, is next in the betting.
He’s only run twice in his life - and just once over hurdles - so he occupies that position, mainly on reputation.
In fairness, he is trained by Nicky Henderson - who is also responsible for fair yardsticks in the shape of Constitution Hill and Jonbon !
It therefore seems reasonable to assume that he is considered pretty useful…
That said, he’s not run since January - despite being touted as a Ballymore possible - suggesting that all has not gone completely smoothly with him.
Good Risk at All is third in the betting - stepping back into novice company having hacked up in a decent handicap at Ascot.
He’s a hard one to assess, as based on his novice form, he has little chance - but he was hugely impressive last time, when he finally got his jumping together.
Assuming it holds up again, then he could easily be involved.
Colonel Mustard, North Lodge, Star Star and Nells Son, can all be given half chances - but equally, it’s hard to make a compelling case for any of them.
North Lodge has the most scope of the quartet - and whilst he was a little disappointing on his most recent start, when beaten by Nells Son, he will be 5lb better off for a short head beating and should be suited by the extra 2 furlongs of tomorrows race.
3:00
Based on all form, this really should be a formality for Edwardstone.
Unbeaten in 5 completed starts over fences this season, he was a very impressive winner of the Arkle on his most recent start, coming home over 4 lengths clear of Gabynako.
That was his second Grade 1 win of the season - in addition to a couple of Grade 2s.
Prior to the Arkle, he easily defeated Third Time Lucki in the Kingmaker novice chase at Warwick - and there is no obvious reason why the runner up should reverse the form.
As a consequence, Edwardstone would appear to have Gentleman de Mee to beat.
He’s won his 2 most recent starts in impressive fashion - though he did appear to have his limitation exposed earlier in the season, when well beaten behind Ferny Hollow and Haut en Couleurs.
Simply, if Edwardstone runs to his best, he will win - the question is whether he will run to his best…
Unfortunately, we have little idea on that score !
This will be his seventh run of the season - and that’s a lot.
He was as good as ever last time - but they can only go to the well so often.
Third Time Lucki will almost certainly have been targeted at this race - and he is a potentially dangerous opponent.
His 4 length defeat by Edwardstone at Warwick, is probably a fair reflection of their respective abilities - but 4 lengths isn’t a huge amount.
It’s likely that Edwardstone will again come out on top - but an EW bet on Third Time Lucki (even with just 2 places), is probably the way to approach the race, if you do want to get involved…
3:35
3 of the first 4 home in the Stayers hurdle at Cheltenham, again lock horns in this - and it will be interesting to see which one comes out on top…
Flooring Porter was a convincing winner of the Stayers hurdle - and whilst that was undoubtedly due in part, to an excellent ride from Danny Mullins, I still think he was the best horse in the race (and by some margin).
That said, he’s a slightly quirky individual - so things might not go quite so smoothly for him this time - and if they don’t, he faces at least a couple of rivals, who are more than capable of taking advantage.
Thyme Hill won this race last year - and looks to be Flooring Porters biggest danger.
He was nearly 3 lengths behind him at Cheltenham - but I suspect he may have slightly needed that run.
He’s certainly had a messy season - having been set back by an issue when making his seasonal debut at Auteuil in November.
He probably wasn’t at his best, when beaten next time by Champ at Ascot - and whilst he reversed that form in the Stayers hurdle, the suggestion remains that he is capable of better still.
That’ll need to be the case if he’s to beat an on-song Flooring Porter - but it’s not impossible.
I find it harder to see Champ reversing the form.
He had his hour in the sun at Ascot - but has been beaten twice since - and at 10, it’s hard to see where the improvement might come from.
That’s also true for Sire de Berlais - though I suspect he could run better than his odds imply.
He was runner up to Flooring Porter in last seasons Stayers hurdle - and whilst he was disappointing in the Pertemps final at this years festival, the soft ground and bad luck in running, meant he was unable to show his true ability.
If he runs to form tomorrow, I could certainly see him placing - even if Flooring Porter and Thyme Hill are likely to prove a little too good for him.
4:05
It’s not surprising to see Shan Blue a very short priced favourite for this…
5 of his last 6 races have been in Grade 1 company - with him winning one of them and finishing runner up in 2 others.
That said, he arguably ran his best run came in the Grade 2 Charlie Hall chase at Wetherby in October.
He was about 20 lengths clear of the field when he ploughed through the second last and took a very heavy fall.
Whilst that might not have been the strongest ever Grade 2 event, the eventual winner, Fussil Raffles and runner up Kittys Light, are both solid handicappers, rated in the high 140s.
The fact that they would have finished a distance behind Shan Blue, suggests that he is very well handicapped off a mark of 148.
Ofcourse, it is rarely that simple - and he did run poorly behind Allaho in the Ryanair last time.
However, if Dan Skelton has got him back to his best, he could prove much too good for his rivals tomorrow…
Oscar Elite and Tea Clipper finished third and fourth in the Ultima at the Cheltenham festival.
Both ran good races - with the former looking the most likely winner jumping the last, before being battled out of it close home; whilst the latter traveled really well, but didn’t get up the hill.
The 3lb weight turnaround shouldn’t be sufficient for Tea Clipper to reverse the form (he was 8 lengths behind Oscar Elite).
However he had the easier race - and may well improve for what was his first run since Christmas.
Cap du Nord finally came good when wining the Coral Trophy at Kempton, at the end of February.
He’d threatened to win a decent handicap all season - and things finally dropped into place for him that day.
Whilst in theory, an 8lb rating rise is not overly harsh, I suspect that might have been his big day this season…
Of those at bigger prices, then Scene not Herd is quite interesting on his second run back after a break.
He notched up a hattrick of wins before Christmas - and whilst he was well behind Killer Kane at Sandown 4 weeks ago, I would expect him to do much better with that run under his belt - whilst the step up to 3 miles is an interesting move.
From a pure handicapping perspective The Hollow Ginge is very interesting…
He finished a narrow runner up on his seasonal debut at Cheltenham in October,when running off a mark of 137.
4 runs later - and he is down to a mark of 132 ! That takes a bit of explaining…
Whether he is quite up to this class, is a different matter - but the handicapper has certainly given him every chance…
5:15
How do you tackle a race like the Grand National ?!
I’ll start with a short list of 5:
Eclair Surf, Escaria Ten, Burrows Saint, Fiddlerontheroof & Enjoy Dallen.
Eclair Surf has just sneaked into the race - but he looks very well handicapped, on a mark of 143, based on his 2 most recent runs.
His defeat of Gericault Roque in the Classic chase at Warwick, was advertised by the runner up at Cheltenham; whilst his second in the Eider, was advertised by the winner, in last weekends Scottish Grand National.
The concern with Eclair Surf is that he’s already had a few hard races this season - but if he’s still in peak form, then he will go close.
By contrast Escaria Ten has only run twice this season, and has clearly been targeted at the race.
He finished third in the ‘4 miler’ at last seasons Cheltenham festival - just 3 lengths behind Galvin.
He was also 14 lengths ahead of Snow Leopardess, who he will meet on slightly better terms tomorrow.
He was narrowly beaten by Any Second Now in his prep race at Fairyhouse - but lost little in defeat and looks the most likely race winner to me…
Burrows Saint was well behind in the Fairyhouse race - but was sent off 6/5 fav.
He looked the most likely winner of last years National - until his stamina gave out, in the final couple of furlongs.
He’s now a year older - and you can bet that Willie will have done his best to figure out how eke out a bit more stamina !
Fiddlerontheroof was an unlucky loser of the Ladbroke trophy in November (he was interfered with by a faller at the fourth last) - and also finished runner up in his prep race at Ascot.
His credentials are rock solid - and he could easily turn out to be the best of the home defence.
Enjoy D’Allen has recently been bought by JP McManus - and arguably that’s a tip in itself !
He finished third to Freeweelin Dylan in last years Irish National - and occupied the same position behind School Boy Hours in the Paddy Power chase over Christmas.
He’ll need to improve slightly, if he is to win this - but he’s still only 8, so should be quite capable of do so…
Needless to say, all of the market leaders can also be given chances.
That said, last years winner Minella Dream, will have his work cut out to win again off a 15lb higher mark - particularly after 2 poor runs this season - though it’s amazing how often horses bounce back to form, when faced with the big fences.
He is certainly going to struggle to cope with Any Second Now on 8lb worse terms - as arguably that one was unlucky not to win last years race.
Delta Work is the class horse in the race - and must have a decent chance, even under second top weight.
Whilst it is hard to knock Snow Leopardess - whose hattrick of wins this season, includes the Becher chase, over the big fences.
Of the outsiders, then Commodore can be given a chance, having just sneaked into the race.
He was hugely impressive when winning at Cheltenham in December - and it’s definitely in his favour that he’s not run since.
6:20
The meeting concludes with a bumper - but it’s not a race that I’ve got any sort of view on !
Willie Mullins saddles 2 - with Rath Gaul Boy seemingly better fancied than his stablemate Houlanbatordechais.
If you are after the race winner, you probably don’t need to look much further !
Ernest Grey and Henri the Second, head the home defence, for Alan King and Paul Nichols respectively.
Both are undefeated in 2 bumpers - and clearly could be anything.
Of those at bigger prices, I was drawn to the Tom Lacey trained Blow Your Wad. He was a beaten favourite on his debut and has presumably been chosen by Stan Sheppard, ahead of stablemate Cruz Control.
He is likely to be a very big price - so could be worth a tiny speculative bet.
However, officially speaking, I can already tell you that this will be a watching race !
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