Best bets
Sandown
1:15
Bun Doran 0.5pt win 13/2
2:55
Beauport 0.5pt win 13/2
1:15
Bun Doran 0.5pt win 13/2
2:55
Beauport 0.5pt win 13/2
Matrix bets
Sandown
2:55
Green Book 1 unit win CEP 9 FP 8
Born Patrol 1 unit win CEP 11.5 FP 11
If the Cap Fits 1 unit win CEP 44 FP 26
3:30
Linelee King 3 units win CEP 5.4 FP 6
Musselburgh
2:05
Calipso Collonges 3 units win CEP 6 FP 5.5
3:45
Captain Cattistock 2 units win 4.7 FP 6
Mighty Thunder 2 units win CEP 7.2 FP 6
Leopardstown
3:15
Janidil 1 unit win CEP 8.6 FP 10
3:50
A wave of the Sea 1 unit win CEP 7.8 FP 8
2:55
Green Book 1 unit win CEP 9 FP 8
Born Patrol 1 unit win CEP 11.5 FP 11
If the Cap Fits 1 unit win CEP 44 FP 26
3:30
Linelee King 3 units win CEP 5.4 FP 6
Musselburgh
2:05
Calipso Collonges 3 units win CEP 6 FP 5.5
3:45
Captain Cattistock 2 units win 4.7 FP 6
Mighty Thunder 2 units win CEP 7.2 FP 6
Leopardstown
3:15
Janidil 1 unit win CEP 8.6 FP 10
3:50
A wave of the Sea 1 unit win CEP 7.8 FP 8
Considering the number of races there are taking place today,
I was surprised by how few betting opportunities I could see…
It’s obviously going to be an issue in small field condition races (of which there are quite a few !) - but even most of todays handicaps, have attracted relatively small fields and can be whittled down to 4 or 5 with chances.
Whilst in theory, that’s great - in reality, you are then faced with having to take short prices about horses who’ve not got outstanding chances.
As a consequence, I’ve ended up with just a couple of Best bets - plus a relatively small number for the Matrix.
Here’s the thinking…
Leopardstown
I was considering a speculative play on Minella Crooner in the 1:05, when he opened up at 8/1 yesterday.
However, he’s in to 3/1 this morning, and that makes absolutely no appeal.
Bronn now looks to be the ‘value’ option in the race at around 6/1 - but it’s just one I’ll be watching…
The 1:35 looks to be between Fil Dor and Vauban - and at around 5/2, the latter looks the better bet.
Again tho, officially speaking, it’s just a watching race.
I’m not massively surprised to see that Riviere D’etel has been backed into favouritism for the 2:10, as she has the best form in the race.
The worry is that she likes to lead - and Willie may use one of his battalion (probably Saint Sam) to mess up that angle for her.
If that does happen, then it's likely to play into the hands of Blue Lord and Haut en Couleurs.
At the prices (4/1), the latter now looks the best bet in the race - but he’s not sufficiently appealing for any official involvement.
The 2:45 looks an absolute minefield - and I’ve honestly got no idea what will win it !
It’s interesting that Rightplacerightime has been backed into favouritism - particularly as Emmet Mullins hasn’t trained a winner for nearly 3 months !
Last years winner, Maze Runner, is arguably a bit of value at around 30 on the exchanges - but again, it’s a race best watched.
I’m really not surprised to see that Frodon has drifted to 5/1 for the Irish Gold cup (3:15), as I found his opening price (3/1), quite baffling…
That said, it’s a very tricky race to solve - as whilst Kemboy is the solid option, he is also beatable.
If Minella Indo bounces back to form he will win - but I’m not convinced that today will be his day.
Instead, I’d rather take a small risk on Janidil for the Matrix.
He has stamina to prove - but plenty of scope for improvement.
He’s been backed in a bit shorter than I expected, but will hopefully drift a little, prior to the off.
I’ve gone off Mt Leinster in the 3:50 (not helped by his price !).
Whilst he could easily hack up, he’s just as likely to make a mistake - or weaken close home.
On reflection, last years winner, A Wave of the Sea, looks the best option.
He’s been running over further - but may appreciate a return to the minimum.
The booking of Shane Fitzgerald looks a significant move - and he’s worth a small play for the Matrix.
Sandown
Bun Doran strikes me as just about the best bet of the day, in the 1:15.
I made him a Best bet at Cheltenham in December, when he finished fourth in a decent race.
He ran even better on his most recent start - and with everything in his favour today, I think he’ll be hard to beat.
I’m a little surprised to see that Goshen has been backed into favouritism in the 1:50 - accepting that he is the most talented horse in the field !
I don’t think he can be trusted to deliver - so could never back him at a short price.
That said, it’s hard to back against him, when you know that if he performs to his best, he’ll win !
On balance, I feel it has to be a watching race…
I struggle to see past L’Homme Presse in the 2:20 - but so does everyone else !
If he got close to even money, he would be worth considering - but 8/11 looks about right (particularly bearing in mind that anything can happen in a novice chase !)
I don’t think that the 2:55 race is quite as competitive as the numbers suggest…
Beauport is the one I like best - and by some margin, as I think he could still be a far way ahead of his mark.
His form is very strong; he’s twice run well at the course - and he should benefit from todays step up in trip.
He’s the most likely race winner…
That said, there are a few who are worth covering for the Matrix, in case things don’t go right for him.
Green Book is the first of them - as he is very unexposed; whilst Irish raider, Born Patrol, also retains plenty of scope.
The final one is, If the Cap Fits. He is very well handicapped on old form, whilst the application of first time blinkers, is an interesting move…
I like Linelee King best in the 3:30 - but the price has gone.
He was a 6/1 shot on the opening show - but you will now struggle to get 4/1.
That strikes me as about right, in a race where 4 or 5 have a chance.
I can’t justify making him a Best bet - but he’s worth a few units on the Matrix.
A target price of 5/1 would seem reasonable…
Musselburgh
If the 5/1 available about Calipso Collonge of the exchanges, was being matched by the bookmakers, he would be a Best bet in the 2:05.
I suspect it will happen in time - but I’ve not got the time to wait !
In truth, it would be a 'value' bet, as I could fancy any of the top 4 in the betting - I just prefer him slightly more than the other 3...
Socialist Agenda makes the most appeal in the 2:40 - but there are too many unknowns to warrant getting involved with him.
He’s one that I may have a stronger view on, for the Live thread…
I’m prepared to take on Highland Hunter and The Wolf in the 3:45.
I had ear-marked Captain Cattistock as a possible best bet - but he was 9/1 at the time and he’s now half that price…
I’ll still cover him for the Matrix - along with Mighty Thunder (who has drifted from 4/1 to 6/1)…
Wetherby
I’m amazed to see Ahoy Senor available to back at close to even money on the exchanges in the 2:30.
I do think he will prove himself different class to Saint Palais - assuming his jumping holds up !
That said, it’s a race just to watch…
It’s obviously going to be an issue in small field condition races (of which there are quite a few !) - but even most of todays handicaps, have attracted relatively small fields and can be whittled down to 4 or 5 with chances.
Whilst in theory, that’s great - in reality, you are then faced with having to take short prices about horses who’ve not got outstanding chances.
As a consequence, I’ve ended up with just a couple of Best bets - plus a relatively small number for the Matrix.
Here’s the thinking…
Leopardstown
I was considering a speculative play on Minella Crooner in the 1:05, when he opened up at 8/1 yesterday.
However, he’s in to 3/1 this morning, and that makes absolutely no appeal.
Bronn now looks to be the ‘value’ option in the race at around 6/1 - but it’s just one I’ll be watching…
The 1:35 looks to be between Fil Dor and Vauban - and at around 5/2, the latter looks the better bet.
Again tho, officially speaking, it’s just a watching race.
I’m not massively surprised to see that Riviere D’etel has been backed into favouritism for the 2:10, as she has the best form in the race.
The worry is that she likes to lead - and Willie may use one of his battalion (probably Saint Sam) to mess up that angle for her.
If that does happen, then it's likely to play into the hands of Blue Lord and Haut en Couleurs.
At the prices (4/1), the latter now looks the best bet in the race - but he’s not sufficiently appealing for any official involvement.
The 2:45 looks an absolute minefield - and I’ve honestly got no idea what will win it !
It’s interesting that Rightplacerightime has been backed into favouritism - particularly as Emmet Mullins hasn’t trained a winner for nearly 3 months !
Last years winner, Maze Runner, is arguably a bit of value at around 30 on the exchanges - but again, it’s a race best watched.
I’m really not surprised to see that Frodon has drifted to 5/1 for the Irish Gold cup (3:15), as I found his opening price (3/1), quite baffling…
That said, it’s a very tricky race to solve - as whilst Kemboy is the solid option, he is also beatable.
If Minella Indo bounces back to form he will win - but I’m not convinced that today will be his day.
Instead, I’d rather take a small risk on Janidil for the Matrix.
He has stamina to prove - but plenty of scope for improvement.
He’s been backed in a bit shorter than I expected, but will hopefully drift a little, prior to the off.
I’ve gone off Mt Leinster in the 3:50 (not helped by his price !).
Whilst he could easily hack up, he’s just as likely to make a mistake - or weaken close home.
On reflection, last years winner, A Wave of the Sea, looks the best option.
He’s been running over further - but may appreciate a return to the minimum.
The booking of Shane Fitzgerald looks a significant move - and he’s worth a small play for the Matrix.
Sandown
Bun Doran strikes me as just about the best bet of the day, in the 1:15.
I made him a Best bet at Cheltenham in December, when he finished fourth in a decent race.
He ran even better on his most recent start - and with everything in his favour today, I think he’ll be hard to beat.
I’m a little surprised to see that Goshen has been backed into favouritism in the 1:50 - accepting that he is the most talented horse in the field !
I don’t think he can be trusted to deliver - so could never back him at a short price.
That said, it’s hard to back against him, when you know that if he performs to his best, he’ll win !
On balance, I feel it has to be a watching race…
I struggle to see past L’Homme Presse in the 2:20 - but so does everyone else !
If he got close to even money, he would be worth considering - but 8/11 looks about right (particularly bearing in mind that anything can happen in a novice chase !)
I don’t think that the 2:55 race is quite as competitive as the numbers suggest…
Beauport is the one I like best - and by some margin, as I think he could still be a far way ahead of his mark.
His form is very strong; he’s twice run well at the course - and he should benefit from todays step up in trip.
He’s the most likely race winner…
That said, there are a few who are worth covering for the Matrix, in case things don’t go right for him.
Green Book is the first of them - as he is very unexposed; whilst Irish raider, Born Patrol, also retains plenty of scope.
The final one is, If the Cap Fits. He is very well handicapped on old form, whilst the application of first time blinkers, is an interesting move…
I like Linelee King best in the 3:30 - but the price has gone.
He was a 6/1 shot on the opening show - but you will now struggle to get 4/1.
That strikes me as about right, in a race where 4 or 5 have a chance.
I can’t justify making him a Best bet - but he’s worth a few units on the Matrix.
A target price of 5/1 would seem reasonable…
Musselburgh
If the 5/1 available about Calipso Collonge of the exchanges, was being matched by the bookmakers, he would be a Best bet in the 2:05.
I suspect it will happen in time - but I’ve not got the time to wait !
In truth, it would be a 'value' bet, as I could fancy any of the top 4 in the betting - I just prefer him slightly more than the other 3...
Socialist Agenda makes the most appeal in the 2:40 - but there are too many unknowns to warrant getting involved with him.
He’s one that I may have a stronger view on, for the Live thread…
I’m prepared to take on Highland Hunter and The Wolf in the 3:45.
I had ear-marked Captain Cattistock as a possible best bet - but he was 9/1 at the time and he’s now half that price…
I’ll still cover him for the Matrix - along with Mighty Thunder (who has drifted from 4/1 to 6/1)…
Wetherby
I’m amazed to see Ahoy Senor available to back at close to even money on the exchanges in the 2:30.
I do think he will prove himself different class to Saint Palais - assuming his jumping holds up !
That said, it’s a race just to watch…
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