There are 4 NH meetings tomorrow, at Carlisle, Huntingdon, Lingfield and Cork.
The quality is a notch below todays - but there are still a few decent races, at Carlisle and Cork.
After todays rain, I suspect the ground will be on the soft side at both courses - precisely how soft, only time will tell..!
I’m not sure whether I’ll be able to issue any official bets tomorrow.
The markets are likely to be quite weak - plus I don’t feel particularly strongly about anything !
I’ll take a look in the morning, just after 10:00 - and advise either way…
Obviously, I’ve been short of time today - but I’ve had a look at the 4 main chases that take place tomorrow (as regular readers will know, I have a preference for contest over the bigger obstacles !) - 2 from each course.
Here are my relatively brief thoughts…
Carlisle
2:00
The Colin Parker is often a fascinating race - and that’s certainly the case this year.
It tends to only attract a small field, which doesn’t make it great for betting - however it often throws up a high class horse.
This years renewal has at least 2 potentially top class runners…
Espoir de Romay showed himself to be a horse of some ability, in his 4 runs over fences, last season.
He won well on his chasing debut at Huntingdon, before being surprisingly beaten next time at Haydock.
However, he was trying to give 4lb to subsequent Gold Cup runner, Royal Pagaille.
In hindsight, he lost little in a 7 length defeat.
On his third outing, he trounced The Bay Birch at Leicester - before running a mighty race in the grade 1 novice chase at Aintree, on his final start of the season.
He was still 2 lengths clear in that race - and running on - when he fell at the second last.
It was a bit too far out to say for sure, but he looked likely to win - and certainly would have finished no worse than second (well ahead of Shan Blue).
As a result of that run, he is now rated 160 - and he should take all the beating tomorrow.
Bizarrely, his biggest rival could well be a horse making his fencing debut under rules.
Ahoy Senor has only run twice over hurdles - and he was the surprise winner of the grade 1 staying novice race at Aintree on his second outing.
There was no fluke about his win - and his 7 length defeat of Bravemansgame looks particularly strong form.
Ahoy Senor won a PTP a couple of yeas back, so I would expect his fencing to be up to scratch.
Carlisle also provides a very fair jumping test.
In truth, I’ll be surprised if one of the pair doesn’t win tomorrow - even though the other runners are no slouches.
Fiddlerontheroof and Silver Halmark can both boast dent chase form from last season. At the weights, Fiddleroftheroof should come out best of the pair.
The other one worthy of mention is Pay the Piper.
He has taken well to fences this season - and has the benefit of fitness over his rivals.
Whether that will be enough to see him home in front tomorrow however, is a different matter…
3:10
This is a decent looking race.
Hold that Taught interests me most, for Venetia.
He was a fair novice last season and was a bit unlucky to come up against useful rivals in his 4 runs.
Despite not winning, he ran with credit on each occasion and although his mark rose as a result, he will run off 128 tomorrow, which looks workable.
Stepping up beyond 3 miles should suit him - as should the soft ground.
The only issue (as we saw today with Frero Banbou), is that Venetias tend to be backed when they have his kind of profile…
Hill Sixteen also catches my eye, on his debut for Sandy Thompson.
He was a good winner over hurdles at Newbury, 12 months ago - before disappointing on 3 subsequent chase starts.
I’ve no idea what his issue was - but he bounced back to form on his final start of last season, when third to Christmas in April.
That one re-opposes tomorrow - and on the book, there shouldn’t be much between the pair. However, I slightly prefer the chance of Hill Sixteen…
At a bigger price, I’d also give half a chance to Sutton Manor.
I had my eye on him last season, following his fall at Haydock (when he was running well), but he didn’t do much in 2 subsequent runs (in fact, he also fell in one of them).
He again caught my eye on his seasonal debut 3 weeks ago, when fourth over hurdles to Justatenner.
That should have blown away the cobwebs and I could see him outrunning his odds tomorrow (assuming his price doesn’t contract too much !).
Eclair Mag is he final one of major interest.
He was a shock winner at Market Rasen on his UK debut in January - and he followed that up with 2 more solid runs in defeat.
He returns tomorrow off a mark just 8lb higher than the one he won from - and it’s quite possible he’s made sufficient improvement over the summer to offset that.
He’s shown that he can go well fresh - and handle soft ground, so there’s no reason why he shouldn’t run a big race.
Cork
2:25
This is a really strong novice chase - and I’ll be surprised if it doesn’t throw up some graded performers and/or big handicap winners, for later in the season (so watch it closely !).
Run Wild Fred sets the race standard.
He finished second in both the Thystes and the Irish Grand National, last season - and has an official rating of 145.
It will take quite a good one to beat him - but I suspect there will be one or two of those in this race..!
French Dynamite is probably top of my list, on his chasing debut.
He was a really good hurdler last season. He finished second in a pair of grade 2 events - and fourth in a grade 1.
He could easily improve for fences - and tomorrows 2m4f trip should be perfect for him.
I suspect he will be tough to beat.
Cape Gentleman won on his chasing debut at Punchestown, 3 weeks ago.
With Ballyadam falling early, he had little to beat that day - but he jumped soundly enough.
That said, the jury (me !) remains out on how his jumping will stand up when he’s put under pressure (which is highly likely to happen tomorrow).
Diol Ker abandoned chasing after 3 goes early last season - but subsequently showed very useful form over hurdles.
I would expect him to run a good race.
I would also expect Blue Berry to run a good race - even though at 10, he’s a bit old to be switching to fences.
Noble Yeats is the real dark one.
He made a successful chasing debut at Galway earlier this month.
He had decent form in bumpers last season and it’s very interesting that Emmet Mullins has decided to send him straight over the bigger obstacles (giving hurdles a miss).
It’s impossible to compare him form-wise with his rivals - but I suspect he could be pretty useful…
3:00
There’s a smaller field than usual for the Cork National - and it doesn’t have the same feel as in previous years.
Most of the key runners are unexposed - and I’ll be surprised if one of them doesn’t come home in front…
Mister Fogpatches is a good place to start.
He won a strong handicap chase at the Punchestown festival - and a 6lb rise for that doesn’t look overly harsh.
He also has the benefit of being race fit - although his fourth at the Listowel festival flatters him, as the 2 clear leaders in that race, fell at the final fence.
Despite that, I feel that Mister Fogpatches sets the race standard tomorrow.
Russian Diamond is an interesting rival.
He’s fallen on half of his 6 chase starts - but put it all together last time at Fairyhouse and was an impressive winner.
He could get an uncontested lead tomorrow - and if he gets into a rhythm at the head of affairs, may prove tough to pass.
Eurobot and Eleazor des Neiges are the 2 others of significant interest - and both run in the colours of Gigginstown.
Eurobot was well behind Mister Fogpatches at Punchestown - but clearly ran below form that day.
He had previously run well at Navan - and on that running, should be right in the mix.
Eleazor des Neiges ran well in a few novice events last season - and should be fitter than most, following a pipe opener at Galway, 3 weeks ago.
The booking of 5lb claimer Shane Fitzgerald, adds to his appeal…
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