With the Cheltenham festival getting under-way on Tuesday, this weekend was always likely to be a quiet one - and it is !
There’s a fair meeting at Sandown tomorrow - where the £100K Imperial Cup is the feature- but there is little else of interest.
In truth, that’s probably a good thing.
Next week is going to be exceptionally busy for me - so the more I can get ahead with form study etc., the better.
As a consequence, the preview for tomorrow is relatively light.
There are just 4 races on ITV - but I’ve also offered thoughts on the final 2 races on the card.
Here are my early thoughts…
Sandown
1:50
This race is invariably a great source of novice chasers for next season - so it should pay to watch it closely.
However, figuring out what’s going to win tomorrow, isn’t easy…
Top weight, Knappers Hill, is the obvious place to start.
He was a top class bumper horse last season - and was expected to take high rank amongst this seasons novice hurdlers - but that’s not quite how it’s worked out.
In fairness, he did manage to win his first 2 races this season - but then was firmly put in his place by Jonbon at Ascot.
In truth, there was little shame in that - and his subsequence sixth in the Betfair hurdle, was a good effort for an inexperienced horse.
He should appreciate the step up in trip tomorrow - and it’s not hard to think that he’s a fair bit better than his current mark of 135.
Thunder Rock is a very progressive horse, who comes into this on the back of a hat-trick of wins.
His defeat of Cobblers Dream at Wetherby in November, looks particularly good in light of the runner ups subsequent win in the Lanzarote hurdle.
Whilst he was impressive on his most recent start, at Huntingdon.
His form has a really solid look to it, and I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t run well.
Our Jet represents the Skeltons and is stepping into handicap company for the first time.
He was beaten less than a length by Hillcrest at Aintree in November - and if that form can be taken literally, he is a certainty off a mark of 122 !
However, the winner has improved markedly since then - though the form of Our Jets subsequent runs, still gives him a fair chance - and he has scope for improvement.
Dubrovnik Harry is a hard one to assess, after just 3 life-time runs.
He disappointed a little at Leicester on his most recent start, but prior to that had hacked up at Exeter.
Again, he has huge scope for improvement…
Kingofthewest and Jerrash, are 2 other lightly raced sorts, who could be capable of much better than they have shown so far.
The former in particular, looks to be going in the right direction.
There are also a few of interest, at bigger prices…
Arizona Cardinal holds Our Jet, based on Warwick form in December.
He has disappointed in 2 subsequent races - but ran much better last time, when winning a novice hurdle (again at Warwick).
Whilst Marble Sands has form tied in with both Kingofthewest and Knappers Hill, which gives him a fair chance, at tomorrows weights…
2:25
Balco Coastal is the obvious favourite for this: an unexposed novice from a big stable, stepping into handicap company for the first time.
On the back of finishing runner up in a grade 2 at Cheltenham last time, a mark of 134 looks generous - and it’s not hard to see him running a big race.
However, tomorrows race will be very competitive - and his inexperience may count against him. Also, there are question marks over the form of the Nicky Henderson stable.
At around 7/2 in a 22 runner race, he is relatively easy to oppose…
Onemorefortheroad has solid handicap form, courtesy of his last time out second in the Betfair exchange trophy at Ascot.
He was only raised a pound for that run, which suggests he should still be competitive - though I do wonder about the strength of the form…
Hystery Beres last time out third to Cormier, looks stronger form - in light of the winners victory at Kelso last Saturday.
Second placed Severance, also franked the form by finishing fourth in the same race.
Lucky One could be interesting, dropped back in trip, off a rapidly falling mark.
He was rated 143 a year ago - and whilst that was probably too high, his current mark of 125, definitely looks exploitable.
It’s interesting that he has been held up in 3 runs this season - despite making the running in his races last season.
I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see a change in tactics, tomorrow…
Samarrive was a hugely impressive winner over tomorrows course and distance in early December - but was then pulled up at Ascot a fortnight later.
Maybe he hadn’t fully recovered - or maybe an 11lb rise was too much for him to cope with.
We should learn more tomorrow…
Current Mood is interesting, as a novice making her handicap debut.
As always, it’s hard to judge whether an opening mark of 127 is fair - but her runs at Cheltenham, behind Blazing Khal and Gellino Bello, suggest it probably is.
The trip is also a question mark with her - particularly on good ground; whilst her run style (she races prominently) and inexperience, are also possible negatives.
On the flip side, she has plenty of potential and is a fair price.
As you would expect in a race of this nature, it’s not hard to find an interesting outsider…
Monviel and Lebowski, are a couple that catch my eye.
Both are completely unexposed, so very hard to assess.
Monviel has only run 3 times over hurdles, winning on his 2 most recent outings.
It’s impossible to know what the form is worth - but an opening mark of 121 looks workable and Philip Hobbs doesn’t tend to over-face his horses.
Lebowski has also only run over hurdles 3 times - winning the first 2, before getting pulled up in a grade 2 at Haydock on his most recent start.
His opening mark of 124 also makes him look interesting…
3:00
It’s unusual to have a bumper as a feature race on a Saturday card - particularly one that is restricted to mares…
Flirtatious Girl won the corresponding race 12 months ago - and whilst she will have to carry a 4lb penalty tomorrow, based on that run, she should have every chance.
However, she has only been seen once since then - at Cheltenham, on trails day at the end of January - when she finished well behind Mullenbeg.
She was conceding 4lb to a race fit rival that day - but was beaten over 12 lengths.
Even at level weights tomorrow, it’s hard to make a case for her reversing the form.
In truth, Mullenbeg very much looks the one to beat.
She was hugely impressive that day, following up an equally impressive debut win at Ludlow.
She clearly has loads of ability - and her position at the head of the market tomorrow, is fully justified.
The Nicky Henderson trained Luccia has been installed second favourite on the back of a winning debut run at Warwick.
The form doesn’t amount to much - but because of her connections, the bookmakers were never going to take any chances (even with the stable possibly out of form).
Eabha Grace is a very interesting raider for Willie Mullins.
She won on her debut at Thurles in December, before running disappointingly in a grade 2 race at the Dublin Racing festival.
She’s impossible to assess - but the fact that Willie Mullins sends her over, means she has to be respected.
Hidden Beauty put up an amazing performance at Ffos Las on debut, before disappointing behind Mullenbeg at Cheltenham.
We should fine out tomorrow, which piece of form best reflects her ability.
Fairy Gem finished a distant runner up to Mullenbeg at Cheltenham - and whilst she really shouldn’t be able to reverse the form on just 4lb better terms, she should run well (and maybe place).
3:35
There may only be 6 runners in this, but it looks likely to be strongly run.
All 6 of the runners like to either lead or race prominently, so tactics may well prove crucial.
If he was guaranteed an uncontested lead, then I think Danny Kirwan would take a lot of beating.
He made all in a novice chase at Wincanton on his most recent start - and I suspect that he is the most talented horse in the field.
However, if he is taken on for the lead, then I’d be fearful that his jumping might let him down…
If that happens, then Killer Kane could be the one to take advantage.
He finally came good on his most recent start, when taking a novice handicap at Kempton.
He’s been raised 6lb for that win - but a new mark of 126 shouldn’t be beyond him.
Scene not Herd has been a revelation this season, winning all 3 of his chase starts.
His mark has risen by 22lbs as a consequence - but he’s a particularly sound jumper and that should stand him in good stead over the challenging Sandown fences.
Dorking Lad is another who is rapidly improving - whilst his hold up style could prove ideal, if the race pace is overly strong.
Venetias horses aren’t really firing at the moment - and that lessens the case of Frenchy du Large.
On form, he could certainly be given a chance - even if his claims aren’t outstanding.
Whilst the issue with Flic ou Voyou is that Harry Cobden seems to have deserted him in order to ride Danny Kirwan.
That Said, Bryony has ridden the horse on his 2 most recent starts - so maybe it’s just a case of not changing jockeys unnecessarily.
Again, on form, he certainly has a chance - whilst the jockey booking is likely to see him sent off a bigger price than should be the case.
4:10
Whilst it’s not on ITV, this is still an interesting little handicap in which most of the runners can be given a chance.
The novice, Switch Hunter, has been installed the early favourite for this - but I suspect that’s because he’s a novice (so open to improvement) - and trained by Paul Nichols.
Certainly the form of his 3 chase runs isn’t anything spectacular, so it’s likely that he will need to show improved form if he is to win.
Fragrant Delitiep was quite impressive when scoring at Wincanton on his most recent start.
That was a very similar race to tomorrows - but it remains to be seen whether he will be able to repeat the dose off a 7lb higher mark.
Powerstone Park also won on his most recent start - when getting the better of Oscar Robertson at Hereford.
He will be looking to defy a 6lb higher mark tomorrow - but he could be up to the task.
Ofalltheginjoints finally bounced back to form last time, when runner up to Flegmatic at Kempton.
That was a good effort against an improving winner - and he must have every chance tomorrow, running off the same mark.
Musical Slave comes into tomorrows race off a dropping handicap mark.
He’s run well on a couple of occasions during the last 12 months - and if he is on a going day tomorrow, then he must have a chance.
Similarly, Larry must have every chance off a mark just 1lb higher than he won from at Ascot in October.
There were excuses for 2 subsequent defeats - though he was a little disappointing on his most recent start, behind Fortescue.
Notachance completes the line up - and whilst he should have a good chance off a mark 3lb lower than when winning last years classic chase, he’s shown literally nothing in 5 subsequent runs, and it would take an act of faith to support him tomorrow.
4:45
As I’m sure many of you will recall, I was particularly keen on Deyrann de Carjac when he ran at Kempton a fortnight ago (I made him a 1pt bet).
However, he made a mistake at the first fence - and then fell at the third…
In a similar race tomorrow, it could be argued that I should be just as strong on him - but I’m not feeling the same…
Maybe it’s a case of once bitten - but I wonder if connections will be happy for him simply to get round and place.
I could be wrong, as the application of cheek pieces does suggest intent - but I’m currently not viewing him as strongly as last time (though I guess that could change !).
In terms of his opponents, then Nocte Volatus is the obvious one.
He’s an improving front runner, who’s unbeaten in 3 completed chases.
The concern is, that he has got a mistake in him - and the Sandown fences tend to be unforgiving.
However, if he gets everything right, he’s likely to prove hard to beat.
Foxboro, Nickolson and Mahler’s Promise are all solid performers, who should run their races.
However, all 3 look beatable.
And whilst Defi Sacre and Maypole Class are both potentially well handicapped, neither has shown much form for quite some time, so they will need to bounce back tomorrow, if they are to be involved.
No comments:
Post a Comment