Best bets
Cheltenham4:10
Echoes in Rain 0.5pt win 9/1
Matrix bets
2:10
Riviere D’etel 2 units win CEP 5.5 FP 5.5
Coeur Sublime 2 units win CEP 16 FP 15
2:50
Fantastikas 3 units win CEP 16.5 FP 15
Gericault Roque 2 units win CEP 15 FP 15
Ben Dundee 2 units win CEP 24 FP 21
Grumpy Charlie 1 unit win CEP 21 FP 26
Corach Rambler 1 unit win CEP 13.5 FP 15
Death Duty 1 unit win CEP 15 FP 13
4:10
Tellmesomethinggirl 2 units win CEP 5.3 FP 5
4:50
The Tide Turns 2 units win CEP 9.8 FP 9
HMS Seahorse 1 unit win CEP 12.5 FP 14
Saint Segal 1 unit win CEP 21 FP 20
Bell ex One 1 unit win CEP 38 FP 30
2:10
Riviere D’etel 2 units win CEP 5.5 FP 5.5
Coeur Sublime 2 units win CEP 16 FP 15
2:50
Fantastikas 3 units win CEP 16.5 FP 15
Gericault Roque 2 units win CEP 15 FP 15
Ben Dundee 2 units win CEP 24 FP 21
Grumpy Charlie 1 unit win CEP 21 FP 26
Corach Rambler 1 unit win CEP 13.5 FP 15
Death Duty 1 unit win CEP 15 FP 13
4:10
Tellmesomethinggirl 2 units win CEP 5.3 FP 5
4:50
The Tide Turns 2 units win CEP 9.8 FP 9
HMS Seahorse 1 unit win CEP 12.5 FP 14
Saint Segal 1 unit win CEP 21 FP 20
Bell ex One 1 unit win CEP 38 FP 30
Every year, I’m surprised by how much easier it is to issue
bets at Cheltenham, than it is on ‘normal’ weekends.
I find the issuing of bets incredibly stressful - mainly because of the constantly changing prices - but today, I could have issued whenever I felt like and it wouldn’t have made any difference !
Ofcourse, that was just as well, as I managed to completely mess things up for the days Best bet - getting the race time wrong and not advising on stake !
Quite an impressive lapse in concentration…
Anyway, hopefully you all managed to figure out what I was suggesting - I did at least manage to get the horse name right - which is the most important thing !
Here’s my thinking behind that bet - and the others that I issues for the Matrix…
Cheltenham
I like Constitution Hill best in the opener (1:30) - but up against 4 serious rivals, it’s hard to make him at bet at 5/2.
I think that price is about right - so if you can get 3/1, he may be worth supporting.
The 2 others worthy of consideration at the respective prices, are Jonbon and Kilcruit.
Jonbon is arguably a touch of value at 11/2: whilst the same is true of Kilcruit at 9/1.
The trouble is, it’s hard to recommend either (officially speaking), when you don’t actually think they will win !
I considered making Riviere D’etel a Best bet in the 2:10 - but I’ve cooled a little on her.
I think that she is the most solid of the Irish raiders - but it’s hard to be confident about that - and there is little margin in a price of 9/2 (assuming you can get that !).
I’ve covered her in the Matrix - and hopefully her price will drift a little…
The other one I’ve covered, is Coeur Sublime.
He is held on form by Rivier D’etel - but I find it interesting that Henry de Bromhead is running him in this race, rather than tomorrows Grand Annual (where he looked to have a very good chance).
He ran Ferny Hollow close, at Punchestown in December - and based purely on that form, he is over-priced at 14/1.
If ever a race was designed for the Matrix, it’s the Ultima (2:50) - so I’ve deployed a full Matrix on it.
As a reminder of how this works, the idea is that I half the field (those that have a chance - and those that I believe have little chance); I then half it again, based on odds - and which ones I fancy the most.
This process should result in me siding with a quarter of the field - but that quarter should have a near 50% chance of winning…
This particular race looks quite open - but I would say the 6 I’ve sided with have roughly a 40% chance of taking the race - so you want to achieve at least 6/4 on your total bet.
In terms of the horses I’ve sided with:
Fantastikas is my main fancy in the race - but only just. He is a progressive novice, who should be well suited by conditions. At around 14/1, he’s a good bet.
Gericault Roque was my original fancy for the race - but drying ground and the fact he is 5lb ‘wrong’ in the weights, have slightly tempered my enthusiasm for him.
Ben Dundee looks the best of the Irish. He has good festival form; ran a cracker in the Paddy Power at Christmas - and looks to have been layed out for the race.
Corach Rambler, Death Duty and Grumpy Charlie, complete the Matrix.
All 3 have a chance - and are fair prices (tho Grumpy Charlie has been well backed since I produced the preview)
The Champion hurdle (3:30) looks at the mercy of Honeysuckle.
She is an exceptional mare - and in receipt of weight from most of her rivals, will be very hard to beat.
Ignoring her, then Epatante holds some appeal.
She won the race 2 years ago - and is apparently back close to that level.
She probably isn’t as good as Honeysuckle - but she receives weight from all of her other rivals, and could well be the one who chases home the favourite.
I could also see Adagio running a big race - though my prejudice against 5 year olds in the Champion hurdle, means I can’t be overly strong on him…
The mares hurdle (4:10) has a particularly open look to it.
My long term fancy for the race is Tellmesomethinggirl - and I still think she has a very good chance.
The issue is mainly the price - though she has drifted to 4/1 - and that is fair.
The other issue, is that Echoes in Rain is now running in the race.
She was originally ear-marked for the Country hurdle on Friday - but Willie Mullins has evidently changed his mind !
She is a class horse - who was expected to make up into a Champion hurdle horse this year.
That’s not happened - but a last time out 7 length defeat by Honeysuckle in the Irish Champion hurdle, is very good form.
There is likely to be a very strong pace in todays race - and that should help her to settle.
If she does - and provided her jumping holds up - she will be hard to beat.
She strikes me as the days best bet - with Tellmesomethinggirl worth covering for the Matrix.
The presence of Gaellic Warrior makes it very hard to play in the 4:50.
He could be anything - but can’t really be backed at 5/2 in a 21 runner handicap - based on reputation and guesswork.
Instead, I’ve taken a chance on 4 of his rivals, in a reduced Matrix.
The Tide Turns is the first one - as he looks like he has been plotted up for the race by Gordon Elliott.
That said, he is held on form by HMS Seahorse - so it’s hard not to also have him onside…
Saint Segal is my long term fancy for the race - I’m just a little worried that the Irish horses may be a bit too strong.
Whilst Bell ex One is interesting on debut for Paul Nicholls - particularly as this is a race in which he has historically done very well.
If Gaellic Saint isn’t the second coming, then hopefully one of the 4 will be able to take advantage !
With just 6 runners (effectively 5) in the 5:30, it’s impossible to see an angle.
When there were 7, I hoped I might have been able to suggest Vanillier at 5/1 - but that price has long evaporated.
He is just about the one that interest me most - though it does require an act of faith that he will bounce back to form - and there is no value in his current price of 3/1.
Unfortunately, this has to be a watching race…
I find the issuing of bets incredibly stressful - mainly because of the constantly changing prices - but today, I could have issued whenever I felt like and it wouldn’t have made any difference !
Ofcourse, that was just as well, as I managed to completely mess things up for the days Best bet - getting the race time wrong and not advising on stake !
Quite an impressive lapse in concentration…
Anyway, hopefully you all managed to figure out what I was suggesting - I did at least manage to get the horse name right - which is the most important thing !
Here’s my thinking behind that bet - and the others that I issues for the Matrix…
Cheltenham
I like Constitution Hill best in the opener (1:30) - but up against 4 serious rivals, it’s hard to make him at bet at 5/2.
I think that price is about right - so if you can get 3/1, he may be worth supporting.
The 2 others worthy of consideration at the respective prices, are Jonbon and Kilcruit.
Jonbon is arguably a touch of value at 11/2: whilst the same is true of Kilcruit at 9/1.
The trouble is, it’s hard to recommend either (officially speaking), when you don’t actually think they will win !
I considered making Riviere D’etel a Best bet in the 2:10 - but I’ve cooled a little on her.
I think that she is the most solid of the Irish raiders - but it’s hard to be confident about that - and there is little margin in a price of 9/2 (assuming you can get that !).
I’ve covered her in the Matrix - and hopefully her price will drift a little…
The other one I’ve covered, is Coeur Sublime.
He is held on form by Rivier D’etel - but I find it interesting that Henry de Bromhead is running him in this race, rather than tomorrows Grand Annual (where he looked to have a very good chance).
He ran Ferny Hollow close, at Punchestown in December - and based purely on that form, he is over-priced at 14/1.
If ever a race was designed for the Matrix, it’s the Ultima (2:50) - so I’ve deployed a full Matrix on it.
As a reminder of how this works, the idea is that I half the field (those that have a chance - and those that I believe have little chance); I then half it again, based on odds - and which ones I fancy the most.
This process should result in me siding with a quarter of the field - but that quarter should have a near 50% chance of winning…
This particular race looks quite open - but I would say the 6 I’ve sided with have roughly a 40% chance of taking the race - so you want to achieve at least 6/4 on your total bet.
In terms of the horses I’ve sided with:
Fantastikas is my main fancy in the race - but only just. He is a progressive novice, who should be well suited by conditions. At around 14/1, he’s a good bet.
Gericault Roque was my original fancy for the race - but drying ground and the fact he is 5lb ‘wrong’ in the weights, have slightly tempered my enthusiasm for him.
Ben Dundee looks the best of the Irish. He has good festival form; ran a cracker in the Paddy Power at Christmas - and looks to have been layed out for the race.
Corach Rambler, Death Duty and Grumpy Charlie, complete the Matrix.
All 3 have a chance - and are fair prices (tho Grumpy Charlie has been well backed since I produced the preview)
The Champion hurdle (3:30) looks at the mercy of Honeysuckle.
She is an exceptional mare - and in receipt of weight from most of her rivals, will be very hard to beat.
Ignoring her, then Epatante holds some appeal.
She won the race 2 years ago - and is apparently back close to that level.
She probably isn’t as good as Honeysuckle - but she receives weight from all of her other rivals, and could well be the one who chases home the favourite.
I could also see Adagio running a big race - though my prejudice against 5 year olds in the Champion hurdle, means I can’t be overly strong on him…
The mares hurdle (4:10) has a particularly open look to it.
My long term fancy for the race is Tellmesomethinggirl - and I still think she has a very good chance.
The issue is mainly the price - though she has drifted to 4/1 - and that is fair.
The other issue, is that Echoes in Rain is now running in the race.
She was originally ear-marked for the Country hurdle on Friday - but Willie Mullins has evidently changed his mind !
She is a class horse - who was expected to make up into a Champion hurdle horse this year.
That’s not happened - but a last time out 7 length defeat by Honeysuckle in the Irish Champion hurdle, is very good form.
There is likely to be a very strong pace in todays race - and that should help her to settle.
If she does - and provided her jumping holds up - she will be hard to beat.
She strikes me as the days best bet - with Tellmesomethinggirl worth covering for the Matrix.
The presence of Gaellic Warrior makes it very hard to play in the 4:50.
He could be anything - but can’t really be backed at 5/2 in a 21 runner handicap - based on reputation and guesswork.
Instead, I’ve taken a chance on 4 of his rivals, in a reduced Matrix.
The Tide Turns is the first one - as he looks like he has been plotted up for the race by Gordon Elliott.
That said, he is held on form by HMS Seahorse - so it’s hard not to also have him onside…
Saint Segal is my long term fancy for the race - I’m just a little worried that the Irish horses may be a bit too strong.
Whilst Bell ex One is interesting on debut for Paul Nicholls - particularly as this is a race in which he has historically done very well.
If Gaellic Saint isn’t the second coming, then hopefully one of the 4 will be able to take advantage !
With just 6 runners (effectively 5) in the 5:30, it’s impossible to see an angle.
When there were 7, I hoped I might have been able to suggest Vanillier at 5/1 - but that price has long evaporated.
He is just about the one that interest me most - though it does require an act of faith that he will bounce back to form - and there is no value in his current price of 3/1.
Unfortunately, this has to be a watching race…
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