Bets/Staking rationale

Best bets

Cheltenham

5:30
Omar Maretti 0.5pt win 11/1


Matrix Bets

Cheltenham

2:10
Pileon 2 units win CEP 40 FP 26
Dunboyne 1 unit win CEP 11 FP 10
Sire de Berlais 1 unit win CEP 7.2 FP 9
The Cob 1 unit win CEP 50 FP 34
If the Cap Fits 1 unit win CEP 40 FP 34

4:10
Stolen Silver 2 units win CEP 24 FP 17
The Glancing Queen 1 unit win CEP 5.4 FP 6
Adrimal 1 unit win CEP 12 FP 13

5:30
School Boy Hours 1 unit win CEP 7.6 FP 8
Mister Coffey 1 unit win CEP 13 FP 13
Come on Teddy 1 unit win CEP 13 FP 13

The combination of watering and rain, completely changed the going at Cheltenham yesterday. It caused a number of issues, which collectively ended up turning things into a bit of a lottery...

Some horses clearly couldn’t cope with the ground (eg. Shishkin); but there was also a definite bias to front runners (presumably because of the kick back) - and a number of non-runners (which affected the way some of the races were run).

In such circumstances, it’s hard to be sure about anything - and that makes it impossible to bet with confidence…

I suspect things to be very different today - but that doesn’t really help !

The action switches to the new course - and hence fresh ground.
It’s a drying day - and the course drains incredibly quickly, so I’ll be surprised if the ground is much worse than ‘soft’ - though I’m guessing…

Again, that makes it hard to heavily commit, as you are aiming at a moving target.

As a consequence, I’ve backed off a little with the bets - reducing the number that I’ve put in the Matrix.
Simply, I don’t feel I’ve got a sufficiently good feel of things, to be able to narrow the fields down.

Hopefully I’ve still managed to come up with a few of interest - along with a Best bet.
It would be nice if one or two of them came good !

Here’s the thinking…


Cheltenham

It’s very hard to choose between Galopin des Champs and Bob Olinger in the opener (1:30).
Bob Olinger was sensational over hurdles last season - but hasn’t looked quite as good over fences this season (though it’s still early days); whilst Galop des Champs, has been unbelievably good in his 2 chase starts to date.
It really is a question of paying your money and making your choice.
I favour Galopin - as I think Bob will struggle to live with his slick jumping.
However, if he does, then he may well be able to out-speed him up the home straight.
It’ll be a fascinating watch - but it isn’t a race in which I feel a need to bet…

The Pertemps final (2:10) looks a bit of a minefield - even tho 4 horses are strongly favoured by the market.
Of the 4 (Sire de Berlais, Winter Fog, Alaphilippe and Dunboyne), I like the Gordon Elliott trained pair best (Sire de Berlais and Dunboyne).
That said, neither one is a great price - so they can only be savers for the Matrix.
My main fancy for the race is Pileon - and he’s a good price (around 40).
He has festival form; will handle the ground - and was impressive when winning the qualifier at Sandown in December.
He beat The Cob that day - and I think he is also worth having on side. He shouldn’t really be able to reverse the form - but he’s a young horse who I can see being suited by conditions.
If the Cap Fits is the final one for the Matrix. He is incredibly well handicapped, and whilst he may be in decline, he simply has to be included.

Allaho should win the Ryanair (2:50) - but everyone knows that and he is priced up accordingly…
I actually think he might struggle a little more than the betting suggests, as he faces at least 4 strong rivals.
Conflated is probably the pick of them - but Shan Blue, Eldorado Allen and Janidil, are all capable of running very big races.
If Allaho gets into the same rhythm as last year, then he will be hard to beat - but if that doesn’t happen it’s likely he’ll need to battle very hard to retain his crown.

The stayers hurdle (3:30) is an impossible puzzle to solve…
It’s quite feasible that any of the top 6 in the betting could win - and if you ran the race 10 times, I suspect each of them would win at least once !
As a consequence, it’s only a race you could bet in, if you could get a ‘value’ price - and all the value prices have long since gone.
If forced off the fence, I’d side with last years winner, Flooring Porter - and at 5/1, I’d be prepared to take a risk on him.
However, 4/1 is the best price available - and I’m not sure he will drift from that.
It’s probably a race best assessed nearer the time, via the Live thread on the forum.

There have already been 5 non runners in the 4:10 - and I wouldn’t be surprised to see one or two more.
That’s clearly not ideal, as it affects the prices of the remaining runners - and can also affect the way the race is run.
The market is keen on 3 (The Glancing Queen, Imperial Alcazar & Celebre D’Allen) - and I like The Dancing Queen best of that trio.
Her last time out second to L’Homme Presse, got a real boost yesterday.
That said, a smaller field and soft ground, would help Celebre D’Allen (who likes to be held up); whilst drying ground would help Imperial Alcazar.
Adrimel was the best bet in the race last night, when he was 20/1 - but he’s half that price now (probably due to his love of heavy ground).
As a consequence, Stolen Silver is now probably the best bet.
He has some good form from earlier in the season - likes to race prominently - and should handle the ground.
I’ll cover him - along with Adrimel and The Glancing Queen in the Matrix - but the race feels too fluid for great confidence.

Dinoblue is very strong in the market for the 4:50 - and as all of the main contenders are trained by Willie Mullins, you have to think that’s significant
I couldn’t back her at 2/1 - but it may be folly to oppose her.
Brandy Love is probably the best option, if you do want a bet in the race.
I didn’t expect her to be as big as 8, on the exchanges.
Officially speaking however, it’s a watching race.

The last race of the day (5:30) hopefully contains the best bet, in the shape of Omar Maretti.
I really like his profile, as an experienced PTPer, who has started racing under rules late in life.
He’s improved in leaps and bounds, in his 5 races for Alex Hales and could easily have more to offer.
It also looks significant that his former trainer, Dale Peters, takes the ride. If anyone can get the best out of him, he should be able to !
Come on Teddy, Mister Coffey and School Boy Hours are all worth covering for the Matrix.
Come On Teddy has form that ties in with Omar Maretti (and gives him a good chance); whilst Mister Coffey could improve for the step up in trip and School Boy Hours looks the best of the Irish.
Hopefully though, the 3 of them will just be chasing home Omar Maretti !