Bets/Staking rationale

Best bets

Kempton

3:15
Diego de Charmil 0.5pt win 6/1


Matrix bets

Kempton

2:40
Masters Legacy 1 unit win CEP 23 FP 15
Jay Bee Why 1 unit win CEP 14 FP 13

3:15
Debece 1 unit win CEP 1 2.5 FP 9

Uttoxeter

1:50
Kateson 1 unit win CEP 21 FP 15
Illegal Model 1 unit win CEP 9.6 FP 10

3:00
Llandinabo Lad 1 unit win CEP 17.5  FP 15

3:35
Achille 2 units win CEP 15.5 FP 13
Captain Drake 1 unit win CEP 15 FP 13

There is some decent racing this afternoon - at both Kempton and Uttoxeter.

However, my focus on Cheltenham over the past few days, meant that I was unable to put as much time into studying as I would have liked…

It’s a bit of a shame, as I suspect this will be the last decent Saturday before Aintree - but it’s the way things are…

I suspect we’ll see very different ground conditions at the 2 courses.
My expectation is that Kempton will be riding as quick as we’ve seen in a long time; whilst I’ll be surprised if Uttoxeter isn’t soft/bottom-less !

The change of ground at Kempton, gives us a possible angle - and I suspect a few horses will have been targeted at the meeting.

That’s certainly the hope with the days Best bet - whilst I’ve also managed to find a few more speculative ones for the Matrix.

Here’s the thinking…


Kempton

The opening race (1:30) looks too tight to call.
I was initially drawn to the very well handicapped Mellow Ben - but I’m now not so sure.
He could get challenged for the lead by Brewers Project - and that won’t help his chance.
Cap St Vincent looks just about the most likely winner - even with top weight - but at 7/2, makes minimal appeal from a betting perspective.

It’s a similar story in the 2:05, where there are effectively only 4 runners.
Race pace could be key - but it’s hard to know how that will work out.
Rockstar Ronnie will probably lead - but Sirocco Jo may challenge him.
Again, with no obvious angle, it’s an easy enough race to leave alone…

With so many of the runners reverting to hurdles after time over fences, the 2:40 is a slightly baffling race…
Brief Times has the most conventional profile - but I’m not completely convinced by him.
I was staggered that Masters Legacy could be backed at 40/1 this morning, as he is arguably the form pick.
He disappointed last time, but holds Annsam and Dorking Boy on previous form at Newbury.
He may have gone completely off the boil - even at half that price, it’s worth paying to find out !
Jay Bee Why is the other one I want on side.
He switches back to hurdles after a few runs in novice chases - but still has scope for improvement over the smaller obstacles.

Diego du Charmil strikes me as the best bet of the day, in 3:15.
Paul Nicholls effectively by-passed Cheltenham (he doesn’t like to lose - and he knew he wasn’t going to win !) - but I almost guarantee he’ll be looking to bounce back, all guns blazing, today.
He gave Harry Cobden a bit of stick for his ride on Diego, last time - and I suspect that will fire Harry up to ride the perfect race today (a little like Rachel on A Plus Tard, yesterday).
Diego is now well handicapped - whilst the trip and track should be perfect for him.
There is a lot of pace in the race - and that should also suit him.
He’s a good bet.
However, just in case (!), I’ll have a saver on Debece.
He will come good at some point (he’s too well handicapped not to) - and whilst I don’t think it will be today, it just might be !


Uttoxeter

Serious Charges and Pulling Stumps are the obvious ones in the 1:50 - but at the prices, I’d prefer to take small risks on Kateson and Illegal Model.
Kateson is very well handicapped (even ignoring the 10lb claimer !) - and whilst there is a doubt about him over 3 miles, connections could have run him in 3:00 over half a mile shorter, but chose this race instead.
Illegal Model reverts to hurdles after a few goes over fences - and the handicapper has given him every chance.
He’s 9lb lower than when he last ran over hurdles (on this card, last year) - and Lilly Pinchins 5lb claim simply adds to that.
Conditions should suit him fine - whilst the blinkers and recent wind op, suggest today could be the day for him.

I just about like Saint Palais best in the 2:25 - but I have too many niggling doubt to suggest him as a bet.
He disappointed last time (admittedly in strong company) - and there is a possibility that he’s had enough for the time being.
He also faces a few strong opponents - most notably Fuji Flight, Young Bull and Midnight River.
As a consequence, I think it’s a race probably best watched…

Boothill and Beauport are worthy favourites for the 3:00 - and it’ll be no surprise if one of them wins. However, there is no value in their prices…
I’d rather take a small risk on Llandinabo Lad.
He ran really well on his seasonal debut at Bangor - and whilst he has disappointed in 2 subsequent runs, he gets a much more suitable test today.
He is now 6lb lower than at Bangor and also has first time cheek pieces applied.
He looks over-priced at around 16.

The market is really keen on the prospect of Time to Get up, repeating last years win in the Midlands National (3:35).
It’s easy to see the argument, off a mark just 4lb higher - but he had a very hard race at Haydock, last month, and that must have taken plenty out of him.
Strictly on the book, Achille should be able to reverse the form from last years race.
He was only beaten 6 lengths - and is now 13lb better off.
In fairness, he is now 12 - and his latest run was poor - but he wears blinkers for the first time today - and he would hardly be the first one of Venetias to bounce back from a poor run !
Captain Drake is the other one I want on side.
He was runner up in this race 2 years ago and races off a mark 4lb lower today.
He returned to form last time at Exeter - and as he’s only 9, should now be at his peak.