Best bets
Sandown2:25
Current Mood 0.5pt win 10/1 (with patience, you should be able to get 12/1)
Matrix bets
Sandown
1:50
Dubrovnik Harry 1 unit win CEP 11 FP 11
King of the West 1 unit win CEP 16 FP 15
2:25
Lucky One 2 units win CEP 9 FP 9
3:00
Hidden Beauty 1 unit win CEP 12.5 FP 11
Flirtatious Girl 1 unit win CEP 15 FP 13
3:35
Killer Kane 1 unit win CEP 6.6 FP 6
4:10
Ofalltheginjoints 3 units win CEP 4.3 FP 5
4:45
Deyrann de Carjac 1 unit win CEP 6.4 FP 6
1:50
Dubrovnik Harry 1 unit win CEP 11 FP 11
King of the West 1 unit win CEP 16 FP 15
2:25
Lucky One 2 units win CEP 9 FP 9
3:00
Hidden Beauty 1 unit win CEP 12.5 FP 11
Flirtatious Girl 1 unit win CEP 15 FP 13
3:35
Killer Kane 1 unit win CEP 6.6 FP 6
4:10
Ofalltheginjoints 3 units win CEP 4.3 FP 5
4:45
Deyrann de Carjac 1 unit win CEP 6.4 FP 6
7mm of rain have fallen at Sandown in the last 24 hours and
as a result, the ground has softened a fair bit.
It’s not a negative for my main fancies - but it has resulted in a few NRs - and shortening prices for the horses who prefer give under foot.
It was always going to be tricky to find good bets today - the races just aren’t there.
I was hopeful that I’d picked out a couple of decent ones - but the price has gone on one of them, so as a consequence there is now just one Best bet.
In truth, the price has also gone a bit on that one - due to Pricewise tipping it last night.
Certainly, I think 10/1 is a minimum - and I would expect a drift, prior to the off…
Anyway, here’s the thinking behind the bets that I’ve issued - both the Best bet and the Matrix bets…
Sandown
It’s hard to rule anything out of the 1:50 with confidence - which makes it a tough race to play in.
Knappers Hill looks the one to beat - though the rain won’t help his chance; whilst Thunder Rock is the solid option - but he looks beatable…
Dubrovnik Harry and Kingofthewest are totally unexposed and could be capable of significant improvement.
Both have already shown decent form - but may easily step up on that today and are worth supporting for the Matrix.
There are quite a few of interest at big prices, who could be capable of causing a shock, headed by Arizona Cardinal and Georges Saint.
But there is just too much guesswork involved to get heavily involved in the race.
Despite the big field, I’m quite keen on Current Mood in the Imperial Cup (2:25).
A rating of 127 looks to significantly under-estimate her - and connections seem to have finally worked out that a stiff 2 miles is her optimum trip.
Softening ground won’t be an issue - and I’ll be disappointed if she doesn’t run a very big race.
It’s not helped her price, that Pricewise tipped her last night. I suspect that 12/1 is a ‘fair’ price - and with patience you should be able to achieve that.
Lucky One is potentially a big danger - and is definitely worth a saver.
He appears to have been targeted at the race by Dan Skelton.
Plenty of others can be given half chances - but I’m happy with the pair of them against the field.
The betting suggests that the 3:00 is between Mullenbeg and Luccia and it may be right.
However, they are both now too short, and there’s almost an obligation to take them on…
Hidden Beauty and Flirtatious Girl finished well behind Mullenbeg last time - but both had legitimate excuses.
In truth, I can’t be confident that either will be able to reverse the form - but at the available odds, it’s worth a small risk for the Matrix, that they will.
The 3:35 looks a particularly hard race to call - with the pace of the race likely to be key.
If Danny Kirwan can get into a rhythm at the head of affairs, he will be hard to pass - but that appears unlikely.
My feeling is that the race will be set up for a closer - and whilst Dorking Lad is the obvious one, he was very harshly treated by the handicapper, for his recent Huntingdon win.
Killer Kane wasn’t treated as badly for his Kempton victory and at 5/1+, he’s worth a small risk for the Matrix.
I was hoping to make Ofalltheginjoints a Best bet in the 4:10 - but the price has gone.
He opened at 11/2 last night - but you’ll struggle to get 10/3 now.
Needless to say, I think the current price is much nearer the mark - but the margin in it is limited.
It’s a tight little race - and whilst he is undeniably well handicapped, the softening ground and undulating track may not be ideal.
I’ll cover him for the Matrix with a target price of 4/1.
If I’d been able to secure that at 10:00, he would have been a Best bet.
As I mentioned in the preview, I’m struggling to get fully behind Deyrann de Carjac in the 4:45 - though I’m not prepared to oppose him !
He should be capable of bolting up - but his fall last time and softening ground, temper enthusiasm.
My feeling is that connections will be happy with him jumping round without incident - and a couple more pounds off his mark.
He’ll then be something to bet on, in the series final at Haydock, on decent ground.
Just in case I’m wrong, I’ll have a minimum stake on him for the Matrix.
It’s not a negative for my main fancies - but it has resulted in a few NRs - and shortening prices for the horses who prefer give under foot.
It was always going to be tricky to find good bets today - the races just aren’t there.
I was hopeful that I’d picked out a couple of decent ones - but the price has gone on one of them, so as a consequence there is now just one Best bet.
In truth, the price has also gone a bit on that one - due to Pricewise tipping it last night.
Certainly, I think 10/1 is a minimum - and I would expect a drift, prior to the off…
Anyway, here’s the thinking behind the bets that I’ve issued - both the Best bet and the Matrix bets…
Sandown
It’s hard to rule anything out of the 1:50 with confidence - which makes it a tough race to play in.
Knappers Hill looks the one to beat - though the rain won’t help his chance; whilst Thunder Rock is the solid option - but he looks beatable…
Dubrovnik Harry and Kingofthewest are totally unexposed and could be capable of significant improvement.
Both have already shown decent form - but may easily step up on that today and are worth supporting for the Matrix.
There are quite a few of interest at big prices, who could be capable of causing a shock, headed by Arizona Cardinal and Georges Saint.
But there is just too much guesswork involved to get heavily involved in the race.
Despite the big field, I’m quite keen on Current Mood in the Imperial Cup (2:25).
A rating of 127 looks to significantly under-estimate her - and connections seem to have finally worked out that a stiff 2 miles is her optimum trip.
Softening ground won’t be an issue - and I’ll be disappointed if she doesn’t run a very big race.
It’s not helped her price, that Pricewise tipped her last night. I suspect that 12/1 is a ‘fair’ price - and with patience you should be able to achieve that.
Lucky One is potentially a big danger - and is definitely worth a saver.
He appears to have been targeted at the race by Dan Skelton.
Plenty of others can be given half chances - but I’m happy with the pair of them against the field.
The betting suggests that the 3:00 is between Mullenbeg and Luccia and it may be right.
However, they are both now too short, and there’s almost an obligation to take them on…
Hidden Beauty and Flirtatious Girl finished well behind Mullenbeg last time - but both had legitimate excuses.
In truth, I can’t be confident that either will be able to reverse the form - but at the available odds, it’s worth a small risk for the Matrix, that they will.
The 3:35 looks a particularly hard race to call - with the pace of the race likely to be key.
If Danny Kirwan can get into a rhythm at the head of affairs, he will be hard to pass - but that appears unlikely.
My feeling is that the race will be set up for a closer - and whilst Dorking Lad is the obvious one, he was very harshly treated by the handicapper, for his recent Huntingdon win.
Killer Kane wasn’t treated as badly for his Kempton victory and at 5/1+, he’s worth a small risk for the Matrix.
I was hoping to make Ofalltheginjoints a Best bet in the 4:10 - but the price has gone.
He opened at 11/2 last night - but you’ll struggle to get 10/3 now.
Needless to say, I think the current price is much nearer the mark - but the margin in it is limited.
It’s a tight little race - and whilst he is undeniably well handicapped, the softening ground and undulating track may not be ideal.
I’ll cover him for the Matrix with a target price of 4/1.
If I’d been able to secure that at 10:00, he would have been a Best bet.
As I mentioned in the preview, I’m struggling to get fully behind Deyrann de Carjac in the 4:45 - though I’m not prepared to oppose him !
He should be capable of bolting up - but his fall last time and softening ground, temper enthusiasm.
My feeling is that connections will be happy with him jumping round without incident - and a couple more pounds off his mark.
He’ll then be something to bet on, in the series final at Haydock, on decent ground.
Just in case I’m wrong, I’ll have a minimum stake on him for the Matrix.
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