Bets/Staking rationale

Best bets

Cheltenham

3:30
A Plus Tard 1pt win 3/1

Matrix Bets

Cheltenham

2:10
West Cork 2 units win CEP 12 FP 11
Colonel Mustard 2 units win CEP 10 FP 9
I Like to Move it 2 units win CEP 14 FP 12
Jesse Evans 1 unit win CEP 36 FP 26

2:50
The Nice Guy 2 units win CEP 17.5 FP 15

4:10
Winged Leader 3 units win CEP 7 FP 7
Bob and Co 2 units win CEP 8.2 FP 8

5:30
Freedom to Dream 2 units win CEP 24 FP 21
Langer Dan 1 unit win CEP 7 FP 7

Looking back at the previews and ‘long lists’ that I’ve produced for the first 3 days of the festival, I find it staggering that the official bets have done so poorly.

There’s barely been a winner which I didn’t think had a chance - and yet I’ve somehow managed to swerve virtually all of them.

Some of it has been down to bad luck (the Matrix has had 3 seconds, all of which traded odds on IR) - and some of it has been down to bad selections, on my behalf.

The early odds offered by the bookmakers certainly haven’t helped with the Best bets - which is why I issued slightly earlier today.

I do fancy A Plus Tard for the Gold Cup - and when the masses wake up, I can see his price shortening.
Ofcourse he’s not guaranteed to win - but he’s a good bet, and that’s all I can offer…

I hope I’ve found a few more good bets - but they have all gone into the Matrix.

Here’s the rationale behind them…


Cheltenham

I can’t really see an angle into the Triumph hurdle (1:30).
In theory, there should be one with Fil Dor - and if I suggested EW plays, I may very well have put him up.
However, he’s more of a stayer - and on quickening ground, Vauban and Pied Piper are likely do him for speed.
I suspect the race is between the 3 of them - but I’m not absolutely sure about that.
A case can be made for Il Etait Temps: whilst it’s a broad brush that dismisses all of the UK horses…
I would certainly expect Knight Salute to run well (maybe place); whilst Doctor Parnassus could be anything.
In short, it’s a bit too trick to get involved with, so it’s a watching race…

State Man is a crazy price in the 2:10 - and has to be taken on.
He may be a graded horse in a handicap - but his lack of experience is a big negative…
Colonel Mustard is almost certainly well handicapped - and if he can cope with the hustle and bustle of the race, he’ll be hard to beat.
West Cork probably isn’t quite as well handicapped - but his form is strong and Dan Skelton has targeted him at the race.
I Like to Move it sits somewhere between the pair: fairly handicapped - but with plenty of potential.
You can back all 3, at roughly the same odds as the favourite…
At a bigger price, Jesse Evans is worth a small risk. He didn’t really feature in the Greatwood - but was sent off favourite, suggesting much better was expected.

Hillcrest and Ginto take a huge chunk out of the book for the 2:50 - and whilst I respect the chance of both, I think they are beatable.
Much has been made of the size of Hillcrest (he’s 18 hands high !) - but that’s not going to be an advantage in a big field on decent ground; and whilst Ginto has solid form - he hardly looks a world beater…
I’d rather take a small risk for the Matrix, on The Nice Guy.
He won well last time, on his hurdles debut, staying on strongly.
He’ll need to step up on that, to win today - but he should be more than capable of doing just that.

A Plus Tard is the best horse in the Gold Cup field (3:30) - and all things being equal, he should win.
I accept that he was beaten by Minella Indo in the race last year - but that one got a perfect ride from Jack Kennedy - and I think there was a doubt in Rachel Blackmores mind as to whether A Plus Tard would stay the trip.
A Plus Tard was also beaten by Galvin, last time - but he wasn’t at his sharpest that day - and still only lost by the narrowest of margins.
He will be spot on today - and all the stamina doubts are gone. I really think he will take a world of beating.
Minella Indo and Galvin are the 2 I expect to follow him home - with Chantry House the most interesting of the outsiders…

Billaway is another favourite who I want to take on, in the 4:10.
He’s been a beaten fav in the last 2 runnings of this race - and I’m optimistic he’ll get up his hattrick this afternoon !
The tricky part is deciding which ones to oppose him with, as it’s really not easy to get a proper handle on hunter chase form.
I’ve decided to split stakes between the second and third favs - Winged Leader and Bob and Co - with a slight preference for the former.
I expect both to run big races - and hopefully one of them (at least !) will be able to get the better of Billaway.

I’ve not got a strong opinion on the mares chase (4:50).
Elimay was runner up in the race last year - and I suspect she will go one better this time round.
That said, she has little in hand of Mount Ida - and Concertista could outclass them both (if her jumping holds up).
Vienna Court is the most interesting of the outsiders - but I suspect she would be better in a bigger field, with a strong pace to chase…

There are just too many unknowns to tackle the 5:30 with any confidence.
Langer Dan is the obvious one, on the back of his second in the race 12 months ago.
However, there are a host of unexposed Irish horses - and I suspect one (or two !) will be a bit too good for him.
At the prices, Freedom to Dream is the one that appeals most - tho I’ll cover Langer Dan, as it would be annoying if the race was won by the most obvious one !