Best bets
Doncaster2:55
Bun Doran 0.5pt win 5/1
Kelso
3:15
Voix de Reve 0.5pt win 14/1
3:43
Gold des Boid 0.5pt win 11/2
Matrix bets
Kelso
2:05
Wilde about Oscar 1 unit win CEP 8 FP 7
N’golo 1 unit win CEP 11 FP 15
3:15
Saint D’oroux 1 unit win CEP 12.5 FP 11
Cormier 1 unit win CEP 8.8 FP 8
3:34
Hardy du Seuil 2 units win CEP 3 FP 3
Doncaster
2:55
The Big Bite 2 units win CEP 3.75 FP 3.5
3:30
Mister Malarky 1 unit win CEP 5.7 FP 6
Legends Gold 1 unit win CEP 10 FP 11
Newbury
1:15
Encounter a Giant 1 unit win CEP 20 FP 17
1:50
Tamaroc du Mathan 1 unit win CEP 5.8 FP 6
Paint the Dream 1 unit win CEP 11.5 FP 10
3:37
Boreham Bill 1 unit win CEP 16.5 FP 11
Commanche Red 1 unit win CEP 11 FP 9
2:05
Wilde about Oscar 1 unit win CEP 8 FP 7
N’golo 1 unit win CEP 11 FP 15
3:15
Saint D’oroux 1 unit win CEP 12.5 FP 11
Cormier 1 unit win CEP 8.8 FP 8
3:34
Hardy du Seuil 2 units win CEP 3 FP 3
Doncaster
2:55
The Big Bite 2 units win CEP 3.75 FP 3.5
3:30
Mister Malarky 1 unit win CEP 5.7 FP 6
Legends Gold 1 unit win CEP 10 FP 11
Newbury
1:15
Encounter a Giant 1 unit win CEP 20 FP 17
1:50
Tamaroc du Mathan 1 unit win CEP 5.8 FP 6
Paint the Dream 1 unit win CEP 11.5 FP 10
3:37
Boreham Bill 1 unit win CEP 16.5 FP 11
Commanche Red 1 unit win CEP 11 FP 9
I was really surprised when the final decs came through on
Thursday and I saw the fields for todays televised races.
All 10 looked quite reasonable - and I was confident that I’d be able to find some decent bets.
I still felt that on Friday morning, having worked my way through the form - but then the rain came and the goal posts moved…
On top of the changing ground, there was a number of NRs - and suddenly I was looking at a very different situation.
The markets this morning reflected that - with a good deal of volatility.
They did eventually settle down - but many of the good bets from Friday morning, had gone.
As always, it wasn’t helped by the various high profile tipsters - who also latched on to a number of the horses I was interested in…
Such is life, I guess…
As a result, I’ve ended up with just the 3 Best bets on the day - plus a few for the Matrix.
Here’s the thinking behind them…
Kelso
I can’t see an angle into the 1:32 race.
North Lodge and Richmond Lake are the 2 obvious ones - but they head the market.
There are plenty of potential dangers at bigger prices - but it’s hard to pick out one in particular.
If the ground is very soft, then I could see Nells Son out running his odds and maybe placing - but officially speaking, it’s just a watching race.
I had originally ear-marked Wilde about Oscar as a Best bet in the 2:05 - but I’ve cooled on him…
He looked as if he might be Skelton plot - but if that’s the case, I would expect him to be well backed (and he’s weak in the market).
I’ll cover him for the Matrix - but more as an insurance, in case I’ve read the market wrongly.
I’ll also cover N’golo.
I expected him to be a bigger price than he currently is - but maybe he’ll drift near the off.
He’s shown promise in his 2 runs for his new connections - and may have been targeted at this race.
Espoir de Romay should win the 2:40 - but I couldn’t suggest backing him at 6/4.
He arguably deserves to be that price - but that’s more a reflection on the opposition (or lack of it).
There really is nothing to take him on with - so even if he runs 10lb below his official rating, he’s likely to win.
Windsor Avenue looks the biggest danger - but it’s a race I feel happiest just watching…
The market for 3:15 has been all over the place, as people try to figure out the effect of the rain.
Buveur D’air was a 4/1 shot on the opening show - but can now be backed at 10/1 !
I did think I’d found a really good bet in the shape of Voix de Reve - and he was easy to back at 20/1 all of yesterday.
Ironically, he’d prefer good ground, so I thought the rain would put people off him.
However, he has been well backed this morning - and 12/1 was the price when I could issue.
That’s tight - and I would except him to drift. However, I still think he’s the Best bet in the race.
I’ll back him up with Saint D’oroux and Cormier, for the Matrix.
The former is tied in closely with Voix de Reve, on recent form; whilst the latter could still be ahead of his mark (even if he too, would prefer decent ground).
I’m hoping that the 3:43 is between Hardy du Seuil and Gold des Bois.
Certainly, the pair of them have the best form in the race - and the others don’t appear to have massive scope for improvement.
Gold des Bois was an 8/1 shot yesterday evening - which made him a clear Best bet.
At 5/1 this morning, things are much tighter - but it’s still a lot better than the 2/1 about Hardy du Seuil !
I’ll cover him for the Matrix - just to get the stake back, if Gold des Bois doesn’t manage to deliver.
Doncaster
I was most interested in Holly Hartingo in the 2:20 race - but she’s a non runner.
Get a Tonic has now drifted to 9/4 - and she’s quite tempting at that price.
However, there are doubts about her over the trip, in bad ground, so she can’t really be backed.
There are also a number of potential dangers lurking at big prices - which makes this a race that I’m happy to just watch.
I was concerned that 3 non runners would completely mess up the 2:55 race.
However, they were all relative outsiders - and one of them was a possible pace rival to Bun Doran.
As a consequence, their absence is arguably a positive thing - even if it has resulted in a 25% drop in the price of Bun Doran.
I am hopeful that he will be able to make all, in conditions that should suit him well.
5/1 (or thereabouts) is a fair price.
I felt that The Big Bite was far and away the biggest danger - and worth saving stakes for the Matrix.
However, the support for Cheddleton is quite concerning.
He is not particularly well handicapped - but he is a class horse and maybe soft ground will swing things in his favour.
It’ll be interesting to see how the market moves, close to the off…
I would have considered Mister Malarky as a best bet in the 3:30 - but I would have wanted a fair bit bigger than 9/2…
I guess he may drift a few points, close to the off - so I’ll cover him for the Matrix.
I’ll also cover Legends Gold.
Again, I was hoping for a bigger price - but Pricewise tipped her last night, which meant that wasn’t going to be the case this morning.
I think the pair of them have good chances, in a race where there is likely to be a lot of pace (so it could pay to be held up).
Newbury
I like Kauto Riko best in the 1:15 - but he’s not a horse you could ever back at 2/1 !
He has the talent to easily win this race off his current mark - but an attitude that means he’s far form guaranteed to run to his best.
As a result, I’d rather take a risk on Encounter a Giant.
There’s a lot of guesswork with him - but he retains potential (which is unusual for a veteran !).
He could easily pull up, so could never be a Best bet - but he’s worth a small risk for the Matrix.
Tamaroc du Mathan strikes me as the most likely winner of the 1:50 - provided the ground isn’t desperate.
I’d be pretty sure that he’s the best handicapped horse in the field - it’s just a question of whether he will be able to show it.
The other ones of interest, are all at the top of the market - but Paint the Dream looks a little over-priced at around 10/1.
He doesn’t have much scope off his current mark - but conditions should be fine for him and I’ll be disappointed if he doesn’t run well.
The pair of them are worth covering for the Matrix.
A bonus race ! - the 3:37…
Prompted by Gags (who posted in the forum), I had a look at the race - and agreed with him that Commanche Red looks interesting at a double figure price.
I also like the look of Boreham Bill, who is potentially very well handicapped - and is an even bigger price than Commanche Red !
Certainly, I feel that both represent ‘value’ - and are worth covering to minimum stakes, for the Matrix.
All 10 looked quite reasonable - and I was confident that I’d be able to find some decent bets.
I still felt that on Friday morning, having worked my way through the form - but then the rain came and the goal posts moved…
On top of the changing ground, there was a number of NRs - and suddenly I was looking at a very different situation.
The markets this morning reflected that - with a good deal of volatility.
They did eventually settle down - but many of the good bets from Friday morning, had gone.
As always, it wasn’t helped by the various high profile tipsters - who also latched on to a number of the horses I was interested in…
Such is life, I guess…
As a result, I’ve ended up with just the 3 Best bets on the day - plus a few for the Matrix.
Here’s the thinking behind them…
Kelso
I can’t see an angle into the 1:32 race.
North Lodge and Richmond Lake are the 2 obvious ones - but they head the market.
There are plenty of potential dangers at bigger prices - but it’s hard to pick out one in particular.
If the ground is very soft, then I could see Nells Son out running his odds and maybe placing - but officially speaking, it’s just a watching race.
I had originally ear-marked Wilde about Oscar as a Best bet in the 2:05 - but I’ve cooled on him…
He looked as if he might be Skelton plot - but if that’s the case, I would expect him to be well backed (and he’s weak in the market).
I’ll cover him for the Matrix - but more as an insurance, in case I’ve read the market wrongly.
I’ll also cover N’golo.
I expected him to be a bigger price than he currently is - but maybe he’ll drift near the off.
He’s shown promise in his 2 runs for his new connections - and may have been targeted at this race.
Espoir de Romay should win the 2:40 - but I couldn’t suggest backing him at 6/4.
He arguably deserves to be that price - but that’s more a reflection on the opposition (or lack of it).
There really is nothing to take him on with - so even if he runs 10lb below his official rating, he’s likely to win.
Windsor Avenue looks the biggest danger - but it’s a race I feel happiest just watching…
The market for 3:15 has been all over the place, as people try to figure out the effect of the rain.
Buveur D’air was a 4/1 shot on the opening show - but can now be backed at 10/1 !
I did think I’d found a really good bet in the shape of Voix de Reve - and he was easy to back at 20/1 all of yesterday.
Ironically, he’d prefer good ground, so I thought the rain would put people off him.
However, he has been well backed this morning - and 12/1 was the price when I could issue.
That’s tight - and I would except him to drift. However, I still think he’s the Best bet in the race.
I’ll back him up with Saint D’oroux and Cormier, for the Matrix.
The former is tied in closely with Voix de Reve, on recent form; whilst the latter could still be ahead of his mark (even if he too, would prefer decent ground).
I’m hoping that the 3:43 is between Hardy du Seuil and Gold des Bois.
Certainly, the pair of them have the best form in the race - and the others don’t appear to have massive scope for improvement.
Gold des Bois was an 8/1 shot yesterday evening - which made him a clear Best bet.
At 5/1 this morning, things are much tighter - but it’s still a lot better than the 2/1 about Hardy du Seuil !
I’ll cover him for the Matrix - just to get the stake back, if Gold des Bois doesn’t manage to deliver.
Doncaster
I was most interested in Holly Hartingo in the 2:20 race - but she’s a non runner.
Get a Tonic has now drifted to 9/4 - and she’s quite tempting at that price.
However, there are doubts about her over the trip, in bad ground, so she can’t really be backed.
There are also a number of potential dangers lurking at big prices - which makes this a race that I’m happy to just watch.
I was concerned that 3 non runners would completely mess up the 2:55 race.
However, they were all relative outsiders - and one of them was a possible pace rival to Bun Doran.
As a consequence, their absence is arguably a positive thing - even if it has resulted in a 25% drop in the price of Bun Doran.
I am hopeful that he will be able to make all, in conditions that should suit him well.
5/1 (or thereabouts) is a fair price.
I felt that The Big Bite was far and away the biggest danger - and worth saving stakes for the Matrix.
However, the support for Cheddleton is quite concerning.
He is not particularly well handicapped - but he is a class horse and maybe soft ground will swing things in his favour.
It’ll be interesting to see how the market moves, close to the off…
I would have considered Mister Malarky as a best bet in the 3:30 - but I would have wanted a fair bit bigger than 9/2…
I guess he may drift a few points, close to the off - so I’ll cover him for the Matrix.
I’ll also cover Legends Gold.
Again, I was hoping for a bigger price - but Pricewise tipped her last night, which meant that wasn’t going to be the case this morning.
I think the pair of them have good chances, in a race where there is likely to be a lot of pace (so it could pay to be held up).
Newbury
I like Kauto Riko best in the 1:15 - but he’s not a horse you could ever back at 2/1 !
He has the talent to easily win this race off his current mark - but an attitude that means he’s far form guaranteed to run to his best.
As a result, I’d rather take a risk on Encounter a Giant.
There’s a lot of guesswork with him - but he retains potential (which is unusual for a veteran !).
He could easily pull up, so could never be a Best bet - but he’s worth a small risk for the Matrix.
Tamaroc du Mathan strikes me as the most likely winner of the 1:50 - provided the ground isn’t desperate.
I’d be pretty sure that he’s the best handicapped horse in the field - it’s just a question of whether he will be able to show it.
The other ones of interest, are all at the top of the market - but Paint the Dream looks a little over-priced at around 10/1.
He doesn’t have much scope off his current mark - but conditions should be fine for him and I’ll be disappointed if he doesn’t run well.
The pair of them are worth covering for the Matrix.
A bonus race ! - the 3:37…
Prompted by Gags (who posted in the forum), I had a look at the race - and agreed with him that Commanche Red looks interesting at a double figure price.
I also like the look of Boreham Bill, who is potentially very well handicapped - and is an even bigger price than Commanche Red !
Certainly, I feel that both represent ‘value’ - and are worth covering to minimum stakes, for the Matrix.
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