There’s plenty of rain around again - and figuring out how the ground will be riding at tomorrows 3 meetings, isn’t going to be easy.
My expectation is that all 3 will be roughly ‘soft’ - but if there is more rain than expected, it could end up ‘heavy’; whilst less rain, and ‘good to soft’ is a possibility.
Not ideal…
On the plus side, there are some really good races - and in general, the fields have held up far better than has been the case on most the weekends this season.
I should certainly be able to find some bets (provided some one else doesn’t beat me to the punch !).
Here are my early thoughts on all of the televised races…
Kelso
1:32
North Lodge and Richmond Lake head the market for this - and that’s understandable.
The pair clashed at Aintree in December, and North Lodge came out on top, by just over a length.
However, Richmond Lake is 6lb better off tomorrow, which should be sufficient to turn the tables.
That said, North Lodge was making his hurdling debut that day - and has subsequently put up an improve effort, to win a grade 2 at Cheltenham.
In fairness, Richmond Lake also probably improved when running Jonbon to 3 lengths at Haydock last time.
In short, you pay your money and make your choice.
My choice would probably be North Lodge - but I don’t expect there to be much between the pair.
All this said, it is far form a 2 horse race…
Sholokjack and Bold Endeavour both boast unbeaten records - and it’s hard to know how good they are.
It’s certainly interesting that Harry Skelton is riding at Kelso, when brother Dan is running some good horses at both Newbury and Doncaster.
I can’t be sure that Sholojack is the reason - but he might be !
Even beyond the 4 mentioned, there are a few interesting looking ones.
Nells Son was behind Richmond Lake at Haydock - but should benefit form todays longer trip; whilst Datsalrightgeno won well at Cheltenham in December, before disappointing last time at Sandown, on dreadful ground.
Honneur D’Ajonc is another one who can’t be discounted, in what looks a very competitive race of its type.
2:05
It’s no surprise to see Famous Bridge heading the market for this.
He’s an unexposed novice, who was sent off at 1/2 on his handicap debut last time, and had just taken up the running when unseating his jockey at the second last hurdle.
However, he had come under pressure - and it wasn’t guaranteed that he would have won that race.
We should find out more about him, tomorrow…
In truth, there is plenty that you can take him on with (if you so wish !)
Hart of Steel is the obvious one, in his hattrick bid.
He’s won his last 2 races at Bangor and Uttoxeter - but he’s edging up the handicap and this looks tougher.
By contrast, Wilde About Oscar is dropping down the weights.
He won well at Uttoxeter last spring, off a mark of 146 - but will be running off a mark of 141 tomorrow.
That’s because he’s disappointed on his 4 subsequent races - tho in fairness, he had a lot on in most of them.
He showed more last time at Huntingdon, when returning from a wind op - and if he’s strong in the betting tomorrow, I suspect he will be hard to beat.
Kaizer bounced back to form last time, when romping home over the course.
He’s been raised 9lb for that win - but more pertinently will be taking on stronger opposition over a shorter trip.
One Night in Milan also drops back in trip after some eye catching runs over 3 miles.
There is no doubt that he is now a well handicapped horse - the question is whether he will have the pace to cope with 2m5f (soft ground would help his cause).
N’golo is the final one of interest.
He’s very hard to get a handle on, but has shown definite promise on his 2 starts for Ann Duffield.
He’s dropped to as mark from which he could be very competitive - provided he puts his best foot forward…
2:40
Based on official ratings, Espoir de Romay is very much the one to beat in this.
He has an official mark of 160 - and that’s at least 9lb higher than all of his rivals (some of whom will be giving him weight).
However, it’s debatable whether he deserves such a lofty mark, as it is based on a single run at Aintree last spring, when he fell at the second last.
He’s only run once this season - and he ran to a mark at least 10lb lower that day - so there are definitely question marks over the mark.
He also hasn’t been seen for 3 months - and is unproven over 3 miles in soft ground (though I doubt that will be an issue).
In short, there are sufficient question marks to temper the appeal of odds of around 2/1.
That said, the opposition looks limited…
On official ratings, Itchy Feet is the next best horse in the race - and he does deserve his mark of 151.
However, he’s a horse who prefers not to win - so a lot will come down to how he reacts to first time blinkers.
If they have the desired effect - and provided he copes with the trip in the ground - then he should be hard to beat.
Windsor Avenue is probably the most solid option in the race, following his all the way win in the Sky bet chase.
The application of blinkers transformed him that day - and it remains to be seen, whether they will be as effective second time…
It’s hard to see Big River being quick enough, over this distance, up against strong opposition; whilst there has to be a question mark over the stamina of Nuts Well, upped in trip, on soft ground.
Dingo Dollar is likely to struggle if the ground gets too soft: whilst Hill Sixteen just doesn’t look god enough !
In short, a race which everything looks beatable :)
3:15
Not only is there £100K up for grabs in this (the same as the County hurdle at Cheltenham) - there is also the possibility of £100K bonus for any horse that wins this race and also wins at Cheltenham
No wonder it’s drawn a strong field…
Dual champion hurdler Buveur D’air heads the weights on his comeback from nearly a year off the course.
He was last seen when finishing fourth to Abacadabras at Aintree - and on that run, would have every chance off a mark of 152.
In fact, his current rating is 20lb lower than he was rated at his peak - tho that’s because he is now 11 and in decline.
The tricky bit is figuring out which is declining fastest - his mark, or his ability !
Metier sits above him in the betting, following his convincing win at the Lingfield Million meeting in January.
He bounced right back to form that day and easily took a valuable handicap.
However, it was a relatively weak race - and the heavy ground really suited him.
On likely quicker ground tomorrow, up against stronger opposition - and from a 7lb higher mark, the task won’t be as easy…
It’s interesting that Jessie Harrington has chosen to send over Autumn Evening - though he looks harshly handicapped, 7lb higher than his Irish mark (which itself, looked high enough).
Cormier looks a very solid option, off a mark just 4lb higher than the one he won off at Cheltenham in January.
It’s hard to see him not running a big race, with very soft ground, the only thing that might be an issue.
Very soft ground also wouldn’t be ideal for Voix de Reve.
However, he is becoming a well handicapped horse - and he ran a big race last time, when third to Saint D’oroux, over the course. A 4lb pull in the weights might be sufficient to enable him to reverse the form - though things are confused a little by the booking of claiming jockeys for both horses…
3:43
Despite top weight, Hardy de Seuil looks the right favourite in this…
He’s won 2 of his 5 chases this season - and failed to complete in 2 others (a fall and an unseat).
However, he probably put up his best performance last time, when runner up to Minella Drama at Haydock.
The winner is a very decent horse - as are the two who finished third and fourth.
In short, it is a solid piece of form and very much makes Hardy de Seuil the one to beat.
It’s reasonable to expect that Dubai Days will be primed to run a big race.
On form, the case for him isn’t compelling - but the race is named in honour of the trianers father, so it’s a fair assumption that Duba Days will be at its peak.
Heartbreak kid did well to beat Le Ligerein at Uttoxeter - but a 6lb rating rise will make things tougher for him tomorrow.
Whilst both Dino Velvet and Gold des Bois have both developed nasty cases of ‘seconditis’…
The former has filled that spot 4 times in his last 5 runs; and whilst the latter can ‘only’ boast 4 seconds from his last 6 runs - it would probably have been 5 from 6 if he’d not fallen at the second last, when in second place at Doncaster.
That said, his second to Nuts Well over course and distance in October, is good form; as is his last time out fourth to Funambule Sivola at Doncaster.
Doncaster
2:20
Based on official ratings, Get a Tonic is very much the one to beat in this…
She is rated at least 9lb superior to all of her rivals - and her last time out second to Maries Rock, is strong form (in the context of this race).
She’s improved with each run - tho it remains to be seen how she will cope with a step up in trip, on the likely soft ground.
If she does handle it, then she sets the standard…
That said, she faces a number of unexposed rivals, who despite being rated inferior to her, are open to significant improvement.
Chief amongst them, is Holly Hartingo.
She is unbeaten in two runs over hurdles - and has shown a good attitude on both occasions.
She had Miss Fairfax back in third, when making a winning debut at Ludlow.
Miss Fairfax has subsequently improved to win her 2 most recent starts, seemingly benefiting from a step up in trip.
However, it’s quite possible that Holly Hartingo will also benefit from racing over further tomorrow and I would expect her to confirm the form.
Gazette Bourgeoise and So Said I are both stepping out of handicap company, after recent wins.
The pair clashed twice, earlier in the season, at Stratford and Exeter.
Gazette Bourgoise, came out on top at Stratford; but So Said I reversed the form at Exeter.
However, that was likely helped by Gazette Bourgoise having to concede 7lb - and on level terms tomorrow, Gazette Bourgeois should come out on top.
It’s hard to make much of a case for the outsiders, tho Eureka Creek has form with Miss Fairfax and Get a Tonic, which suggest she should run well.
2:55
There are some potentially well handicapped horses in this - though softening ground might prove to be a leveller…
The Big Bite is the early favourite, following his last time out second to Funambule Sivola, over course and distance.
That was a good effort - and approaching the last, it briefly looked as if he might win that race.
The handicapper has seen fit not to raise him for that - and there can be little doubt he can win off his current mark, if things drop right.
King D’Argent can also win off his current mark - in the right situation.
He hacked up at Warwick a year ago, off a mark just 3lb higher - and has subsequently run with credit, off higher marks.
Certainly his seasonal debut third to Nuts Well off a mark of 146, suggests that he should be very competitive off his current mark of 138.
Malystic is a hard one to assess, making his seasonal debut.
He threatened to be a good horse last year - but the market is likely to provide the best pointer on his return.
Cheddleton is an admirable horse - but he looks in the grip of the handicapper; whilst Cedar Hill will have his work cut out to follow up his recent win in a much tougher race, off a 4lb higher mark.
Bun Doran is quite interesting, as he continues to slide down the handicap.
The race wasn’t run to suit at Sandown last time - and his previous second to Gunsight Ridge, is good form.
If he gets an uncontested lead, he could prove tough to pass.
3:30
Despite there being just 8 runners, it looks as if there will be a lot of pace in this…
Le Milos, Storm Control and Cloth Cap, all like to front run - so at least a couple of them are likely to be disappointed.
Le Milos has won his 2 most recent starts, at Exeter and Sandown, and led on both occasions.
He also jumped left both times - and as they are right handed courses, he should be better suited by racing left handed tomorrow.
A 4lb rise for his most recent win, looks fair - and he is likely to be right in the mix again tomorrow.
Strom Control ran a massive race last time, when runner up in the Sky bet chase.
He looked to have the race won, jumping the last - but idled on the run in and was caught close home.
It’s hard to argue with a 4lb rise - but it will need a personal best, if he is to defy his new mark of 141.
Cloth Cap won on this day last year (the Premier chase at Kelso) - but hasn’t done much since.
In fairness, he didn’t run badly in either the Grand National or the Ladbroke trophy - tho he failed to get home in both races.
The worry is that he may have a breathing issue - and if that’s the case, it won’t matter how far he drops in the handicap.
Mister Malarky is the best handicapped horse in the race, on a mark 13lb lower than when third in the old Racing Post chase, just over a year ago.
He’s disappointed in 4 subsequent runs for Colin Tizzard - but makes his debut for Richard Bandy tomorrow and if he has him right, then he could prove very hard to beat.
Powerstone Park steps up in grade after a good win at Hereford.
It’s guesswork as to whether he can be competitive in tomorrows stronger company.
It’s a similar story with Soyouthinksoagain; whilst Undersupervision will need to improve on his 2 recent runs in open company.
Legends Gold is quite interesting, based on her third to Snow Leopardess at Bangor in November.
She’s not matched that level of form in 3 subsequent runs, but if she bounces back tomorrow, she’s capable of going close.
2:20
Based on official ratings, Get a Tonic is very much the one to beat in this…
She is rated at least 9lb superior to all of her rivals - and her last time out second to Maries Rock, is strong form (in the context of this race).
She’s improved with each run - tho it remains to be seen how she will cope with a step up in trip, on the likely soft ground.
If she does handle it, then she sets the standard…
That said, she faces a number of unexposed rivals, who despite being rated inferior to her, are open to significant improvement.
Chief amongst them, is Holly Hartingo.
She is unbeaten in two runs over hurdles - and has shown a good attitude on both occasions.
She had Miss Fairfax back in third, when making a winning debut at Ludlow.
Miss Fairfax has subsequently improved to win her 2 most recent starts, seemingly benefiting from a step up in trip.
However, it’s quite possible that Holly Hartingo will also benefit from racing over further tomorrow and I would expect her to confirm the form.
Gazette Bourgeoise and So Said I are both stepping out of handicap company, after recent wins.
The pair clashed twice, earlier in the season, at Stratford and Exeter.
Gazette Bourgoise, came out on top at Stratford; but So Said I reversed the form at Exeter.
However, that was likely helped by Gazette Bourgoise having to concede 7lb - and on level terms tomorrow, Gazette Bourgeois should come out on top.
It’s hard to make much of a case for the outsiders, tho Eureka Creek has form with Miss Fairfax and Get a Tonic, which suggest she should run well.
2:55
There are some potentially well handicapped horses in this - though softening ground might prove to be a leveller…
The Big Bite is the early favourite, following his last time out second to Funambule Sivola, over course and distance.
That was a good effort - and approaching the last, it briefly looked as if he might win that race.
The handicapper has seen fit not to raise him for that - and there can be little doubt he can win off his current mark, if things drop right.
King D’Argent can also win off his current mark - in the right situation.
He hacked up at Warwick a year ago, off a mark just 3lb higher - and has subsequently run with credit, off higher marks.
Certainly his seasonal debut third to Nuts Well off a mark of 146, suggests that he should be very competitive off his current mark of 138.
Malystic is a hard one to assess, making his seasonal debut.
He threatened to be a good horse last year - but the market is likely to provide the best pointer on his return.
Cheddleton is an admirable horse - but he looks in the grip of the handicapper; whilst Cedar Hill will have his work cut out to follow up his recent win in a much tougher race, off a 4lb higher mark.
Bun Doran is quite interesting, as he continues to slide down the handicap.
The race wasn’t run to suit at Sandown last time - and his previous second to Gunsight Ridge, is good form.
If he gets an uncontested lead, he could prove tough to pass.
3:30
Despite there being just 8 runners, it looks as if there will be a lot of pace in this…
Le Milos, Storm Control and Cloth Cap, all like to front run - so at least a couple of them are likely to be disappointed.
Le Milos has won his 2 most recent starts, at Exeter and Sandown, and led on both occasions.
He also jumped left both times - and as they are right handed courses, he should be better suited by racing left handed tomorrow.
A 4lb rise for his most recent win, looks fair - and he is likely to be right in the mix again tomorrow.
Strom Control ran a massive race last time, when runner up in the Sky bet chase.
He looked to have the race won, jumping the last - but idled on the run in and was caught close home.
It’s hard to argue with a 4lb rise - but it will need a personal best, if he is to defy his new mark of 141.
Cloth Cap won on this day last year (the Premier chase at Kelso) - but hasn’t done much since.
In fairness, he didn’t run badly in either the Grand National or the Ladbroke trophy - tho he failed to get home in both races.
The worry is that he may have a breathing issue - and if that’s the case, it won’t matter how far he drops in the handicap.
Mister Malarky is the best handicapped horse in the race, on a mark 13lb lower than when third in the old Racing Post chase, just over a year ago.
He’s disappointed in 4 subsequent runs for Colin Tizzard - but makes his debut for Richard Bandy tomorrow and if he has him right, then he could prove very hard to beat.
Powerstone Park steps up in grade after a good win at Hereford.
It’s guesswork as to whether he can be competitive in tomorrows stronger company.
It’s a similar story with Soyouthinksoagain; whilst Undersupervision will need to improve on his 2 recent runs in open company.
Legends Gold is quite interesting, based on her third to Snow Leopardess at Bangor in November.
She’s not matched that level of form in 3 subsequent runs, but if she bounces back tomorrow, she’s capable of going close.
Newbury
1:15
This isn’t the most competitive veterans chase ever run - but it’s still a pleasing puzzle..!
It’s interesting to see Prime Venture in the field.
He won the final of last years series at Sandown at the start of January.
However, he was well suited by the desperate ground that day - and off a 7lb higher mark, on quicker ground, it’s hard to make a case for him.
Of more interest, is Aso.
He was sent off at just 7/2 for that race, but didn’t handle the ground and was pulled up.
He runs off a mark 7lb lower tomorrow - so is a stone better off with Prime Venture.
On better ground, that should be more than enough for him to reverse the form.
He’s just about the best handicapped horse in the race - though whether he’ll be at his best over 3 miles in soft ground, is a different matter.
That’s also the case with Kauto Riko.
He put up a personal best last time, when fourth to Chantry House in the Cotswold chase.
If he could be guaranteed to run to that level of form he would win - but alas, he can’t !
That said, the booking of 5lb claimer, Kieren Buckley, is an eye catching move - and suggests that connections are trying to give the horse every chance…
Indy Five is the solid option in the race - and it’s hard to see him not running well.
However, he’s a 12 year old, with little in hand of his mark, so he doesn’t set an insurmountable standard.
It’s quite hard to make a case for Christmas in April, Saint Xavier and Minellacelebration - so Encounter a Giant is the most interesting of the rest.
He’s only run 3 times under rules, and didn’t show much when pulled up on his seasonal debut 3 weeks ago at Exeter.
However, he should be better for that run - and unlike his opponents still has some scope for improvement.
1:50
Paul Nicholls has a tremendous record in this race (he’s won 5 of the last 8 runnings), so with his stable seemingly back in form, it’s hardly surprising that Tamaroc du Mathan has been well backed.
He’s a young horse, who looks well handicapped on a mark of 142, based on his runs in a couple of grade 2 novice events last season.
However, he has only been seen twice this season, suggesting he’s had issues - he’s also considered best on good ground (which he’s unlikely to get).
It’s not easy balancing everything up - he almost certainly has the ability to win - but may not necessarily be able to show his best…
He’s disputing favouritism in the early market, with Dublin Four.
He was impressive when winning over course and distance in November - but looked in trouble when falling at the second last at Newbury on his only subsequent run.
Again, he’s a hard one to assess, as he probably has the ability to win - but it’s guesswork as to whether he’ll be at his best.
Glen Forsa bounced back to form, when winning last time at Musselburgh.
However, he faces sterner opposition tomorrow - and off a 5lb higher mark.
Farinet disappointed last time, but that was over 3 miles on good to soft ground at Sandown.
He should be much better suited by half a mile less and softer ground tomorrow - and whilst he’s moving up the handicap, the full extent of his ability may not yet have been revealed.
Paint the Dream is very feasibly handicapped, back on the mark he won from on his seasonal debut at Chepstow in October.
His 3 subsequent runs haven’t been as good - but they’ve not been bad either - and the handicapper may have been a little premature in dropping his mark.
It’s not easy making a case for the other 5 - though Kildisart is certainly handicapped to run well, if he’s anywhere near his best, after 18 months on the sidelines…
1:15
This isn’t the most competitive veterans chase ever run - but it’s still a pleasing puzzle..!
It’s interesting to see Prime Venture in the field.
He won the final of last years series at Sandown at the start of January.
However, he was well suited by the desperate ground that day - and off a 7lb higher mark, on quicker ground, it’s hard to make a case for him.
Of more interest, is Aso.
He was sent off at just 7/2 for that race, but didn’t handle the ground and was pulled up.
He runs off a mark 7lb lower tomorrow - so is a stone better off with Prime Venture.
On better ground, that should be more than enough for him to reverse the form.
He’s just about the best handicapped horse in the race - though whether he’ll be at his best over 3 miles in soft ground, is a different matter.
That’s also the case with Kauto Riko.
He put up a personal best last time, when fourth to Chantry House in the Cotswold chase.
If he could be guaranteed to run to that level of form he would win - but alas, he can’t !
That said, the booking of 5lb claimer, Kieren Buckley, is an eye catching move - and suggests that connections are trying to give the horse every chance…
Indy Five is the solid option in the race - and it’s hard to see him not running well.
However, he’s a 12 year old, with little in hand of his mark, so he doesn’t set an insurmountable standard.
It’s quite hard to make a case for Christmas in April, Saint Xavier and Minellacelebration - so Encounter a Giant is the most interesting of the rest.
He’s only run 3 times under rules, and didn’t show much when pulled up on his seasonal debut 3 weeks ago at Exeter.
However, he should be better for that run - and unlike his opponents still has some scope for improvement.
1:50
Paul Nicholls has a tremendous record in this race (he’s won 5 of the last 8 runnings), so with his stable seemingly back in form, it’s hardly surprising that Tamaroc du Mathan has been well backed.
He’s a young horse, who looks well handicapped on a mark of 142, based on his runs in a couple of grade 2 novice events last season.
However, he has only been seen twice this season, suggesting he’s had issues - he’s also considered best on good ground (which he’s unlikely to get).
It’s not easy balancing everything up - he almost certainly has the ability to win - but may not necessarily be able to show his best…
He’s disputing favouritism in the early market, with Dublin Four.
He was impressive when winning over course and distance in November - but looked in trouble when falling at the second last at Newbury on his only subsequent run.
Again, he’s a hard one to assess, as he probably has the ability to win - but it’s guesswork as to whether he’ll be at his best.
Glen Forsa bounced back to form, when winning last time at Musselburgh.
However, he faces sterner opposition tomorrow - and off a 5lb higher mark.
Farinet disappointed last time, but that was over 3 miles on good to soft ground at Sandown.
He should be much better suited by half a mile less and softer ground tomorrow - and whilst he’s moving up the handicap, the full extent of his ability may not yet have been revealed.
Paint the Dream is very feasibly handicapped, back on the mark he won from on his seasonal debut at Chepstow in October.
His 3 subsequent runs haven’t been as good - but they’ve not been bad either - and the handicapper may have been a little premature in dropping his mark.
It’s not easy making a case for the other 5 - though Kildisart is certainly handicapped to run well, if he’s anywhere near his best, after 18 months on the sidelines…
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