As I am writing this before any of Tuesdays action has taken place, I’ve not got much to add to yesterdays pre-amble..!
The fields for Wednesday have stood up a bit better than those on Tuesday - even if numbers are a little down on what they once were.
Looking at the weather forecast, a fair amount of rain could hit Cheltenham on Wednesday - so that’s something to bear in mind…
Aside from that, I’ve not got much to say ! - so here are my early thoughts on day 2 of the festival.
Cheltenham
1:30
Whilst 2m4f may be a little further than ideal for Sir Gerhard - he faces much lesser rivals in this race, than he would have done if he had contested Tuesdays Supreme.
Presumably that swung things for Willie Mullins - and provided Paul Townend can get him settled, he is likely to take the world on beating in this.
He was a top class bumper horse (he won the champion bumper at last years festival) and he is unbeaten in 2 runs over hurdles this season (including a grade 1 at the Dublin Racing festival on his most recent start).
Simply, his form is at a higher level than any of his rivals - so provided he stays the trip and doesn’t encounter any misfortune of the way round, he is likely to win.
In fact, it says much for his chance, that second favourite, Three Stripe Life, was beaten 6 lengths by him at the Dublin Racing festival.
There is no good reason why the form should be reversed - so that provides a fair measure of Sir Gerhards superiority.
Certainly, it would be hard to back Three Stripe Life to win the race - though he could be a good EW bet (or in the ‘without the fav’ market).
Journey With Me is quite interesting for Henry de Bromhead,
He’s unbeaten in 3 starts under rules - including 2 hurdle races.
His form doesn’t match that of Sir Gerhard - though his defeat of Minella Crooner and Kilcrut on his seasonal debut at Leopardstown in December, showed that he is decidedly useful.
He subsequent win at Naas doesn’t read as well - but he got the job done and almost certainly has scope for further improvement.
Stage Star looks the best of the home defence.
He’s won his 3 starts over hurdles this season - and was quite impressive in taking the Challow hurdle on his most recent outing.
However, despite that being a grade 1, it wasn’t a particularly strong contest and he will really need to step up, if he’s to get the better of the Irish raiders.
None of the outsiders hold much appeal - so this really does look Sir Gerhards race to lose…
2:10
As with Tuesdays Arkle, the field for the Browns Advisory (ex RSA) has stood up really well…
Bravemansgame heads the market - and it’s impossible to disagree with that.
He’s unbeaten in 4 chase starts this season - and his near perfect fencing, has been a joy to behold.
In all the time I’ve been watching racing, I can think of few horses better over a fence - and no novices !
He really is that good.
It’s not as if he’s been beating up vastly inferior rivals - as all of his races have been proper tests (or at least, should have been !).
He took on second season chasers in his first 2 starts: before wining the grade 1 Kauto Star novice chase - and carrying 11st 8lb in a novice handicap at Newbury.
He has been tested in a variety of ways - and passed them all with flying colours.
He looks sure to run his race - and sets a very high standard - it’s just a question of whether one of his rivals will be a bit better than him…
Ahoy Senor took him on in the Kato Star - but he came up short.
In truth, the sharp Kempton track wouldn’t have played to his strengths - and I would expect him to do better around Cheltenham.
Whether he will do well enough to reverse the form is a different matter - and I suspect he is a horse who will really come into his own next season (and beyond).
L’Homme Presse is another serious horse.
He too is unbeaten in 4 chases this season - and has shown improved form on each occasion.
He took the grade 1 Scilly Isles novice chase on his latest start - and could well benefit from the step up in trip in this.
Like Bravemansgame, he is a very good jumper - and he shouldn’t be under-estimated.
It’s quite amazing that the 3 main contenders are all trained in the UK - so if an Irish horse takes this race, it will be something of a shock !
That said, I suspect they have quite a few capable of running big races - though picking out the best one, isn’t easy…
Capodanna briefly looked to have Bob Olinger in trouble on his penultimate start at Punchestown, though ultimately he was well beaten.
He then unseated on his next start, in the grade 1 won by Galopin des Champs.
He’s certainly been mixing with the right Irish horses - even if it’s tricky to assess how good he actually is !
Beacon Edge, Fury Road and Farouk D’alene, all run in the colours of Gigginstown - and it’s quite hard to choose between them.
None of them are world beaters - but they are all useful animals, capable of producing a shock, if things happen to fall their way.
It’s unusual to see Willie Mullins and Nickey Henderson saddling a couple of the outsiders - but that's the case with Gaillard du Mesnil and Dusart.
Both have a lot to do based on their runs over fences this season - though there is a feeling that they are better than they have shown so far.
2:50
The market for the Coral cup has been thrown into disarray by the fact that the ante-post favourite for the race - Good Risk at All - has missed the cut by one (he is the first reserve).
He got a 10lb rating rise for bolting up at Ascot last month - but unfortunately for him, he needed an 11lb rise !
It looks like we’ll be seeing him in the Martin Pipe hurdle on Friday, instead…
In his absence, Unexpected Party now heads the market.
Like Good Risk at All, he was a very easy winner at Ascot on his most recent start - but he got a 12lb rise for his trouble and that was enough to get him in to this race.
Whether he can still be competitive off his new mark, only time will tell - but I suspect he probably can…
That said, the form book says that he is going to struggle to beat Gowel Road.
He gave Unexpected Party a stone and a 2 length besting when the pair clashed over the course in November.
He now only has to give him 3lb - which suggests the form should be confirmed (and some !).
Ofcourse, if it was that easy, we’d all be millionaires - but it’s certainly worth bearing in mind.
Camprand is the other English trained horse, towards the head of the betting.
He’s not been seen since finishing fourth in the Greatwood hurdle at the November meeting - but that is red hot form and the suspicion is that Philip Hobbs has kept him back for this race.
He’s young enough to still be improving - and he has good form over this longer trip.
He has to be on any short list…
All of the other fancied horses are Irish trained - but again, it’s not easy to pick between them.
The Shunter won over fences at last years festival - and has been well backed to follow up in this.
However, he will be running off an 8lb higher mark - and now looks relatively exposed.
By contrast, Saint Felicien is completely unexposed, after just 3 runs over hurdles.
He was a beaten favourite on his most recent start - but that was behind Durasso in a grade 3 event at Naas.
An opening mark of 149 looks fair - and he clearly has plenty of scope for improvement.
He’s another one who has to be on the short list.
Drop the Anchor is interesting. He finished seventh in last seasons County hurdle - running on strongly at the finish.
He was also running on strongly on his most recent start behind Call me Lyreen at Leopardstown.
The suggestion is that he will be well suited by the step up in trip - and if that is the case, he could easily play a big part in the finish.
Plenty of others can be given half chances, with The Paul Nichols trained McFabulous and the Martin Brassil trained Fastorslow, 2 of definite interest…
3:30
The Champion chase is likely to be one of the high lights of the meeting - as it sees a rematch between Shishkin and Energumene.
The pair clashed in the Clarence House chase at Ascot in January - with Shishkin coming out on top by a length, in an epic duel.
It’s hard to think why the form would be reversed, as Energumene had the run of that race - and Shishkin made a significant mistake around half way.
That said, there was only a length between them at the line - and it’s anyones guess which horse had the harder race.
It will be fascinating to see them lock horns again.
Not that it is a 2 horse race…
Energumenes stablemate Chacun Pour Soi is an exceptional talent - and was sent off an odds on favourite for the race 12 months ago.
However, he disappointed and could only finish third.
He made amends next time at Punchestown - before disappointing again in the Tingle Creek at Sandown.
Maybe he’s not a good traveller - time will likely tell on that score…
Nube Negra was unlucky not to win this race 12 months ago - and there can be little doubt that he will be produced in peak condition, to try and put the record straight.
However, this is a much deeper renewal - and even though he’s a very good horse, he’s probably not as good as a peak form Shishkin (or Energumene).
I could see Funambule Sivola outrunning his odds - but he will need a significant personal best, if he is to reach the frame.
Whilst it says much for the quality of the race, that the last 2 winners, Put the Kettle On and Politologue are the outsiders of the field.
In truth, both of them were slightly fortuitous to win - and it will be quite a surprise if either one is good enough to repeat the feat.
4:10
Whilst the cross country chase isn’t everyones cup of tea, this years renewal is likely to provide the final chance to see an equine super star in action…
Not many horses win at 5 Cheltenham festivals - but Tiger Roll has. He’s also won 2 Grand Nationals - though he’s not going to win a third.
3 of his 5 festival wins have been in the cross country chase - and there’s a fair chance he will make it 4 in this…
He hacked up in the race last year - comfortably taking his revenge on Easysland, who had beaten him 12 months earlier.
He’s done nothing in 3 subsequent outings - but that counts for very little.
Apparently he is back in peak form - and I have little doubt, he will be ready to run for his life, as he bids for a slice of history.
Easysland will be taking on again - having recently transferred in to the care of Jonjo O’Neil.
At face value, that move doesn’t seem to have gone too well - as he’s been pulled up in his 2 starts for Jonjo.
However, they were both over hurdles - and I suspect the main aim was to get to know the horse.
As with Tiger Roll, it will be all about this race for him - and I’ll be surprised if we don’t see a much improved performance.
Outside of the big 2, then Delta Work will become yet another grade 1 winner, who is turning his attention to the cross country.
He has won 5 grade 1s (which is some achievement) - the most recent being the Irish gold cup, 2 season ago.
He’s still only 9 - and if he does take to the new discipline, he clearly has the class to go very close.
Pregarde, Shady Operator and Midnight Maestro represent Banks king, Enda Bolger.
The first named is a recent acquisition from France, who has won 5 times over the cross country course at Compiegne.
A run over hurdles at Naas last month, should have blown away the cobwebs, and he could easily run a big race.
Shady Operator and Midnight Maestro have twice clashed over the banks course at Punchestown this season - winning one race apiece.
It’s hard to choose between the pair this time - though the suspicion is that neither will be quite good enough to win.
Brahma Bull is another classy animal making his cross country debut for Willie Mullins; whilst Diesel D’allier and Back on the Lash both won cross country races at Cheltenham earlier this season. However, neither of those races was as classy as this one…
4:50
This years Grand Annual looks wide open - and even drawing up a short list, is quite a challenge…
One things that strikes me, is that there is likely to be some serious pace in the race.
Editeur du Gite and For Pleasure, both have just one way of running - flat out !
Whilst there are plenty of others, who like to race prominently, and would be more than happy to lead, if they were able.
In such circumstances, it can pay to side with a hold up horse - though they inevitably need luck in running, in order to pick their way through weakening horses….
In terms of the short-list, then Amarillo Sky is the first one on it.
He’s been gradually finding his form this season - and was impressive when winning last time at Newbury.
He got an 8lb rise for that win - which is not ideal - but his aggressive jumping style is likely to be a real plus in this race.
Thyme White is the next one.
He was beaten by Amarillo Sky at Wincanton in November - but a a 7lb swing in the weights, could easily see him reverse that form.
He also won well on his most recent start at Doncaster - and again, whilst an 8lb rating rise wasn’t ideal, it did at least mean he would get a run in this !
Embittered was sent off the 9/2 fav for this race 12 months ago - but fell at half way.
He will be running off a pound lower mark this time - and whilst his recent from looks uninspiring, he’s been competing in graded races, where he had little chance.
The suggestion is that this might have been a year long plan…
Before Midnight has really progressed this season - and whilst his mark has risen as a consequence, I suspect he will go very well.
There is a chance that there will be one or two better handicapped horses in the race - but he looks a good bet to at least place.
Gumball appeals most of those at bigger prices.
I’ve always been a fan of his - and whilst he has disappointed in 3 runs for Fergal this season, his mark has dropped 8lb as a consequence.
The fitting of first time cheek pieces is an interesting move - and I could certainly see him outrunning dismissive odds.
5:30
Whilst 22 will go to post for the bumper, it does look as if it could be a straight shoot out between Facile Vega and American Mike.
The fact that it is also Mullins v Elliott, just adds to the spice !
Facile Vega is a son of super mare Quevega - so there were great expectations when he made his racecourse debut at Leopardstown over Christmas
He didn’t disappoint that day - powering home as easy winner - and it was more of the same, next time at the Dublin Racing festival.
Again he was sent off a shade of odds on - and again he made that look a generous price, as he took apart a strong field.
He sets a very high standard - but he faces a serious rival in the shape of American Mike.
He too is unbeaten in 2 bumper starts.
He cantered home at Down Royal in October- before taking a listed race at Navan by 17 lengths.
Both horses look well up to the standard required to win this race - and it will be fascinating to see which one comes out on top.
Willie Mullins runs 7 in the race (including Facile Vega) - and collectively, they have won 10 of their 11 races !
His second string appears to be Redemption Day - and he was an easy winner at Leopardstown over Christmas.
In truth, he - and the other 5 - could be literally anything - which makes it a tough to play in…
The two 4 year old mares look the most interesting of the British horses, in receipt of 17lb from their older rivals.
Poetic Music is unbeaten in 3 races for Fergal - including over the course on New years day; whilst Rosy Redrum ran an amazing race at Newbury last time, when she made up a huge amount of ground, in the home straight but couldn’t quite reel in Top Dog.
The application of a hood should see her reverse that form - but whether it will see her get the better of the Irish horses, is a different matter !
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