The final day of an intense week - during which things haven’t been helped by a constant moving of the of the goal posts ! (ie. changing ground conditions)
It’s hard to know how it will be riding tomorrow - but after a drying day, I suspect it will be on the soft side of good (so similar to how it was on Tuesday !).
That seemed unimaginable on Wednesday afternoon - but Cheltenham is a quick draining course - and coupled with good weather, the ground will dry out very quickly.
Again however, that’s guesswork on my behalf - which isn’t great when you are trying to assess races.
Anyway, it is what it is !
For now, I’ll just focus on the form - and delay making a call on conditions until tomorrow morning.
Here are my early thoughts on the final days races…
Cheltenham
1:30
Irish runners dominate the head of the betting for the Triumph hurdle - which is understandable.
The only time the British and Irish runner have met this season, was when Pied Piper came over to Cheltenham and contested the Triumph hurdle trial, at the end of January.
Admittedly he didn’t face the very best British juveniles that day - but he barely broke sweat in coming home 9 lengths clear of his nearest rival.
At that time, he wasn’t even considered the best juvenile in Gordon Elliotts stable - which suggests that the Irish juveniles were superior by some margin.
And nothing that has happened since has really contradicted that feeling - the question is more, which is the best of the Irish…
Prior to the Dublin Racing festival, it was thought to be Fil Dor - a stablemate of Pied Piper.
However, he was soundly beaten by Vauban at the DRF - and there is no obvious reason why that form should be reversed.
That said, Vauban had been beaten by Pied Piper, on his previous outing at Punchestown.
That was his first run for Willie Mullins - though he had run 4 times previously in France, so didn’t lack experience.
The circle is therefore complete: Fil Dor is considered better than Pied Piper; but Pied Pier beat Vauban; and Vauban beat Fil Dor !
In short, you pay your money and make your choice !
Icare Allen and Il Etait Temps are 2 other Irish trained runners, who can’t be easily dismissed.
Like Vauban, both are trained by Willie Mullins - and both ran in the Spring juvenile, won by Vauban.
Icare Allen was quite well fancied for that race - but disappointed. He has subsequently bounced back with an easy win at Fairyhouse; whilst Il Etait Temps ran a massive race on his Irish debut to finish third.
Of the pair, Il Etait Temps looks the more interesting…
The admirable Knight Salute is probably the best of the home defence.
He’s unbeaten in 5 races over hurdles - and has a great attitude,.
However, he almost certainly doesn’t have the ability of the Irish horses.
If the ground was heavy, then Porticello would become interesting.
He has bolted up in his 2 most recent starts, on very heavy ground - though was beaten by Knight Salute on decent ground at Doncaster.
Whilst the Dan Skelton trained Doctor Parnassus is unbeaten in 2 starts - and literally could be anything.
That said, he’s going to have to be pretty good, if he’s going to win this on his third start over hurdles…
2:10
A trio of Irish novices are at the head of the market for this - which is hardly ideal !
A lot of guesswork will be required to try and establish how well handicapped they are - and connections of the horses will be better placed to judge than we are !
That’s particularly true for the early favourite, State Man.
He’s only run 3 times in his life - and just twice for Willie Mullins.
Furthermore, he fell on the first occasion - before bolting up by 12 lengths at odds on 1/7, at Limerick last month.
How the handicapper has decided on a mark for him, is beyond me !
He is clearly held in high regard by the stable - and could easily be a graded horse in a handicap.
That said, as we saw with Gaellic Warrior on Tuesday, the best horse doesn’t always win these ultra competitive handicaps - experience counts for a lot…
The Gordon Elliott trained Top Bandit has a bit more experience - having run 4 times over hurdles.
He also has course experience, as he beat Brorsun at the October meeting.
That’s reasonable form - and an opening mark of 139 for him, looks fair.
Colonel Mustard is a second season novice and much more experienced than the other 2.
He’s been beaten by Jonbon and Sir Gerhard on his 2 most recent starts - so has been mixing with the best.
His opening mark of 140 looks attractive - though his ability to cope with the hustle and bustle of a big field of seasoned handicappers, has to be taken on trust.
Away from the novices, West Cork looks the most interesting of the exposed handicappers.
He won a red hot running of the Greatwood over course and distance in November, and hasn’t been overly harshly treated with a 7lb rise.
The form of that race simply couldn’t have worked out any better - and whilst he has disappointed on his only subsequent run, you can bet your life that Dan Skelton will have him spot on for this.
He really should be the one to beat…
Surprise Package bolted up in the Imperial Cup at Sandown on Saturday - and in theory, should have every chance with just a 5lb penalty.
However, I struggle a little to see him winning his second big handicap in a week.
I like to Move it makes more appeal.
He was runner up in the Betfair hurdle on his most recent start - and the winner, Glory and Fortune, franked that form with an excellent run in the Champion hurdle.
I like to Move it showed a great attitude that day and still has scope for improvement.
Jesse Evans is perhaps the most interesting of those at big prices.
He finished fourth in the Galway hurdle - and was sent off favourite for the Greatwood, but ran disappointingly.
If he can bounce back to form, then he is likely to outrun his odds.
Whilst Tempo Chapter Two looks an intriguing runner for Willie Mullins.
He’s only run 3 times in novice hurdles for Mullins - and not jumped particularly well - so it seems odd that he is being thrown into a massive field handicap !
Perhaps Willie has seen something in the horse, that the rest of us haven’t…
2:50
This looks a near impossible puzzle to solve - and I suspect I won’t try..!
I really hope that Hillcreast can win it for Henry Daly - as he’s a trainer I’ve always liked and it would be good to see him get a Cheltenham winner.
And undoubtedly the horse has a chance…
He’s absolutely huge - and possesses a significant engine.
He powered home at the course, on new years day - and did the same again last time at Haydock, when stepped up to 3 miles.
The trip certainly won’t be an issue for him - though very soft ground would probably be ideal.
I think he will run well - but suspect that will be outspeeded up the home straight by one or two of the Irish horses.
Figuring out which ones is the tricky bit…
Ginto is the obvious one, after his last time out win in the Lawlors of Naas hurdle.
He should appreciate stepping up to 3 miles - and probably sets the race standard.
Minella Crooner won a grade 1 novice event at the DRF - and on that form, has a good chance.
However, he got the run of the race that day, under a canny ride from Danny Mullins, and I’d be a little worried about his stamina lasting out over the longer trip.
Shantreusse looks to have stamina to burn - and must have a good chance of providing Henry De Bromhead with a second winner in the race.
He has progressed with every run this season - and whilst he was beaten in a bumper by Ginto last season, he may have improved sufficiently to reverse that form.
The Nice Guy is unbeaten in 3 runs - and was impressive last time, when winning on his hurdling debut.
This race represents a big step up in class - but he clearly has a lot of ability.
Half chances can be given to a number of the others - so it certainly isn’t a race that can be tackled with confidence !
3:30
I’m really surprised to see that Galvin has usurped A Plus Tard at the head of the betting for the Gold cup.
Whilst it’s true that he beat him last time, in Savills chase - A Plus Tard did appear a slightly unlucky loser that day.
Things didn’t go quite right for him in the race - and Galvin just managed to run him down close home.
It’s a little harsh to take anything away from the winner - but it did seem like a bit of a fluke result.
I guess the issue with Galvin, is that I don’t really think that he has the class required to win a Gold cup.
He was beaten off a mark of 142 at the 2020 festival; and whilst he did win at last years festival - a narrow defeat of Next Destination and Escaria Ten, is hardly top class form.
He was also beaten by Frodon at Down Royal in October - when race fit - so the win the Savills was a bit of a bolt out of the blue.
That said, maybe he’s improving - and soft ground would certainly aid his cause.
I would give him a good chance of placing - but winning feels a step too far…
A Plus Tard and Minella Indo are the 2 who interest me most, from a win perspective.
They finished first and second last year - and I wouldn’t be overly surprised if they did the same this time round.
Minella Indo came out on top 12 months ago - but he was given a sublime ride by Jack Kennedy.
Robbie Power is in the saddle this time - and that doesn’t strike me as a positive move.
Minella Indo is also a year older than A Plus Tard, so there must be every chance that A Plus Tard has made the greater improvement in the interim.
That certainly looked to be the case first time up this season, when A Plus Tard was a hugely impressive winner of the Betfair chase at Haydock.
If he can recapture that form then he sets a very high standard.
Protektorat heads the home defence on the back of an unbelievable win in the Many Clouds chase at Aintree in December.
That race was run on desperate ground - and Protektorat pulled throughout - yet still came home 25 lengths clear of his nearest rival.
The trouble is, the form may amount to very little - as none of his rivals handled the conditions.
On the flip side, he’s only 7 - and relatively unexposed - so could still have plenty of improvement in him.
Of the others: Royal Pagaille will only have a chance, if the ground is desperate: whilst dual winner Al Boom Photo is likely to struggle to match last years third place.
Tornado Flyer is interesting, based on his last time out win in the King George - though the race did fall apart that day; and whilst Asterion Forlonge is a complete enigma, he’s a talented one !
If there is to be a massive shock, then he strikes me as the one most likely to provide it.
4:10
Billaway is the obvious start point in this.
He has finished runner up in the last 2 runnings of the race, having been sent off favourite on both occasions.
He was well beaten by It comes to Pass, in 2020 - but only lost out by a short head 12 months ago.
He is clearly the one to beat - but equally, I suspect he is beatable…
In fact, Bob and Co may well have beaten him last year, if he’d not decanted his jockey at the third last.
He narrowly gained his revenge at the Punchestown festival, the following month - and there can be little doubt that he will have been trained to the minute by Paul Nicholls, in an attempt to give David Maxwell a festival winner.
He looks sure to go very close…
Winged Leader looks a big danger to the pair of them.
He’s won his last 5 starts - and comfortably accounted for Billaway on his most recent outing at Thurles.
It’s quite possible that Billaway needed the run that day - but Winged Leader is only 8, so has plenty of scope for improvement.
Dubai Quest is the potential joker in the pack.
He has won his last 7 races - 5 PTPs and 2 Hunter Chases.
This will be the first time he has tackled quality opposition - but he may be up to the challenge.
Plenty of the others can be given half chances, based on bits and pieces of form.
Cousin Pascal beat Bob and Co at Haydock in February - though the runner up probably needed the run that day.
Whilst Premier Magic beat Porlock Bay in a PTP over Christmas - though it’s hard to assess the merit of the form; and Mighty Stowaway dead heated with Winged Leader, back in November - tho he himself, only managed a distant sixth in this race last year…
4:50
Just 8 will go to post for the mares chase - and it’s not the most inspiring of contests.
Elimay was narrowly beaten by Colreevy in the inaugural running last year - and she must have every chance of going one better this time.
She has won 2 of her 4 subsequent starts - tho the horses that beat her on the 2 other occasions will both face her again tomorrow.
Zambella destroyed her at Aintree in December - tho it very much looked as if Elimay didn’t run her race that day (for whatever reason).
She was much better on her next outing at Fairyhouse on New Years day, but couldn’t quite peg back Mount Ida.
That race suggests that Mount Ida is the one to beat tomorrow - though she’ll need to jump better than she did when she won the Kim Muir at the festival 12 months ago !
Rarely will you see a festival winner put in such a shocking round of jumping - and it says a huge amount for her ability, that she was able to win.
She was helped that day, by the fact she was running over 3m2f - and if she jumps as poorly tomorrow over 6 furlongs less, she is unlikely to be able to recover.
Concertista is the other big player in the race.
She hacked up in the mares novice race at the 2020 festival - and was narrowly beaten in the mares hurdle, last year.
She has only run twice over fences - and whilst she has won on both occasions, her lack of experience is a worry.
That said, the small field should mean that she has time and space over her fences - and there can be no doubting her ability.
Drying ground is a concern for Zambella - and in the circumstances, her stablemate Vienna Court may prove to be the best of the home defence.
She was a really impressive winner over course and distance on new years day - and whilst she disappointed last time, when beaten by Pink Legend at Huntingdon, I would expect her to reverse the form, back at Cheltenham.
5:30
The final race of the 2022 festival - and Langer Dan will be looking to gain compensation for his defeat in last years race.
He was very unlucky to bump into Galopin des Champs - who ran that day off a mark of 142 !
Unsurprisingly, Langer Dan couldn’t handle him - but he was beaten little more than 2 lengths - with the third horse 9 lengths further back.
He’s only run once since then, when making an eye catching reappearance at Taunton.
That race was clearly designed to blow away the cobwebs, so it was amazing to see him dropped 3lb for it !
As a consequence, he will run tomorrow off a mark just 2lb higher than last year - and unless there is another Galopin des Champs in the race, that should make him very hard to beat.
Most of the obvious dangers, are unexposed novices, trained in Ireland.
Adamantly Chosen represents Willie Mullin.
He won the Land Rover bumper at last years Punchestown festival - and has taken well to hurdling, twice finishing second - before winning his maiden at Thurles on his most recent start. He could be anything.
Hollow Games is a little easier to assess - and his last time out third in a grade 1 at the DRF (when he was sent off fav), suggests he should be competitive off an opening mark of 143.
Freedom to Dream and Grand Jury finished behind him that day - and the former is quite interesting at a big price, over the shorter trip and on 8lb better terms.
Chemical Energy is yet another interesting Irish novice - he ran in last years Champion bumper (but was well beaten).
Cobblers Dream is the final one worthy of a mention.
He hacked up in the Lanzarote on his most recent start - and an 8lb rise isn’t that harsh.
He probably doesn’t have the scope of some of the Irish novices - but I would expect him to run well.
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