Wednesday, December 29, 2021

Dec 26th - Preview for Kempton, Wetherby, Leopardstown & Limerick

There are a plethora of meetings scheduled for tomorrow - but with my remit of focusing on ‘big’ races, I’ll be concentrating on Kempton, Wetherby, Leopardstown and Limerick.


There are big races (or at least, a big race) being run at each of the venues - though in truth, a lot of the fields are a bit disappointing (numerically speaking).

There is also significant doubts concerning the weather.

Rain is forecast in most places - with some snow forecast at Wetherby.
The state of the ground, is therefore going to require a bit of guesswork…

As a consequence, I doubt there will be many suggested bets tomorrow - but with a long week ahead of us, I’m not unduly worried about that.

Here are my thoughts on the main races of the day…



Kempton

1:20


8 should be going to post for this novice handicap chase - and it looks a tight contest…

Nicky Henderson appears to hold the aces, courtesy of Bothwell Bridge and Mister Coffeey.
Nico de Boinville has chosen to ride the former - suggesting he’s the one to beat (and explaining why he is the early favourite).
He showed promise in novice hurdles last season - but appeared to improve for fences on his seasonal debut at Sandown, where he was a comfortable winner.
A 5lb rating rise doesn’t look overly harsh - and he appears to set the race standard.
Master Coffeey was very highly regarded last season, when he was running over hurdles - but things didn’t quite drop right for him.
It was a similar story on his chasing debut at Newbury, where despite being sent off 5/4 fav, he could only finish third (of five).
He may well have needed the run that day - and I’d expect better tomorrow.
However, that was the fourth consecutive race, where he had run below market expectations - and you can only make excuses for so long…
Danny Kirwan appears to be the third major player in the race - for Paul Nichols.
He ran well on his chasing debut at Cheltenham in October - and I would expect him to improve for that experience.
As a PTP winner, he’s always looked the sort who will be best suited to fences.
All of the outsiders can be given some kind of chance - with Your Darling, perhaps the most interesting…
He looked a horse going places, when he won at Huntingdon in October - but then disappointed in a hotter race at Aintree, on his only subsequent start.
Whilst Jacamar is another who can’t be dismissed - in first time cheek pieces.
He is talented, but tends to race quite lazily.
If the head gear has the desired effect, then he could easily play a part.

1:55


Numerically, there’s a disappointing turnout for the Kauto Star novice chase, with just 4 runners - and realistically, it looks a 2 horse race.

However, on the flip side, the 2 runners of significance are probably the 2 best staying novice chasers in the UK - and provided they both jump round without mishap, it should be a very informative race…

Bravemansgame and Ahoy Senor are the 2 to focus on - and they clashed over hurdles at Aintree, in the spring.
Despite being sent off at 66/1 and 13/8 fav respectively, Ahoy Senor beat the Bravemansgame by 7 lengths - and there appeared to be absolutely no fluke about the result.
Maybe the only caveat, was that it came at the end of a hard season for Bravemansgame (so he may have been slightly past his peak); whilst Ahoy Senor, was having just his third outing of the season - and only his second over hurdles.
This season, both have switched to chasing - and made a really big impact.
Ahoy Senor unseated on his chasing debut at Carlisle - but that was late on, in a listed chase against experienced rivals.
He still ran a huge race - and it was no surprise to see him dot up next time, in a grade 2 novice event at Newbury.
Bravemansgame is unbeaten in his 2 chases - both against more experienced rivals.
He was hugely impressive first time at Newton Abbot - and almost equally so, in his subsequent race at Haydock.
A real feature both times, was his pin point accurate jumping - and that could be a crucial weapon around Kempton.
Ahoy Senor hasn’t looked quite so foot sure - and that might prove to be the difference between the pair.
On the flip side, it they both jump soundly, then I suspect that Ahoy Senor has more stamina - and possibly, more talent…
The other 2 runners (Tea Clipper and Kiltealy Briggs), are fair performers - but the suspicion is that they simply aren’t in the same class as Ahoy Senor and Bravemansgame.

2:30

There’s a disappointing turn out for the Christmas hurdle - with just 5 runners.

Epatante and Not So Sleepy look the 2 to focus on - but the betting tells us that.
However, whether the betting has got the respective odds right, is a different matter…
The pair clashed recently, in the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle - and at the end of 2 miles, the judge couldn’t separate them.
It can be argued that Epatante should have come on more for that race (her first since the spring) - and she will appreciate the easier Kempton track.
However, if the rain comes, then that will suit Not so Sleepy - whilst he’s also likely to get an uncontested lead…
They are currently priced up at around even money and 3/1 - however, I feel it should be more like 6/4 and 2/1.
Furthermore, there is a possibility that either Tritonic or Soaring Glory, could spring a surprise.
Both have won good quality handicaps - and are stepping into grade 1 company.
Clearly they will need to up their games if they are to have any chance of winning - but that’s far from impossible.
That said, Soaring Glory seemed unsuited by a small field last time: whilst Tritonic is only 4 - and it’s just a week since he collected the big pre-Christmas handicap at Ascot.
In short, the race should be won by one of the big 2, with Not so Sleepy currently representing a bit of value (even more so, if the rain comes).

3:05


This years King George, is an absolute cracker !

The standard is set by last years winner - Frodon.
His victory 12 months ago, was a big surprise - but he got an uncontested lead; jumped from fence to fence - and nothing was able to get past him.
He’s likely to get an uncontested lead again tomorrow - and his jumping is likely to again, be flawless - the question is simply, whether there is anything in the field that will be able to reel him in…
Clan des Obeaux couldn’t 12 months ago - but he’s been aimed at the race this time.
He’s already won it twice - and I’m sure he’ll be primed to regain his crown, tomorrow.
I’d feel slightly happier if Nicholls had managed to get a prep run into him.
That said, there is no one better at getting a horse ready to run for his life - and I suspect that Clan will be spot on.
Minella Indo could definitely be the fly in the ointment for Ditcheat.
He was a very impressive winner of the Gold cup in March - and whilst Frodon beat him at Down Royal in October, I doubt he was primed for that race.
I’d be slightly concerned that he might not be at his absolute peak tomorrow - but the fitting of first time blinkers certainly suggest intent.
I think he’s the best horse in the race - though is remains to be seen, how he copes with the test…
Chantry House and Asterion Forlonge represent last seasons novices - and there’s a real possibility that either one of them could be good enough to step up and take the prize.
Chantry House is the more consistent of the pair - and he had Asterion back in third, when taking last seasons Marsh chase.
However, there remains a feeling that Asterion hasn’t yet shown what he is really capable of - and stepping up to 3 miles might be the making of him (assuming the fences don’t intervene !).
The other 4 are all talented horses - but they really shouldn’t be good enough, up against some top notch rivals.

Wetherby

2:10


Of all the races being run tomorrow, this is potentially the most interesting, from a betting perspective.

Most of the 10 runners can be given a chance - and good cases can be made for at least half a dozen of them.

Silver Hallmark is the early favourite, which is understandable.
He’s only had 3 previous runs over fences - and his head defeat by Fiddlerontheroof, at Exeter last season, suggests he could be very well handicapped.
Even his fourth place, behind the same horse on his return at Carlisle, makes good reading - and there is every chance that he will improve for tomorrows step up in trip.
Empire of Steel, is the other unexposed potential big improver.
He’s had 5 previous runs over fences - and shown very good form on at least a couple of occasions.
He ran a nice race on his seasonal return at Haydock - and if he has improved for that, then he could well be in the mix, tomorrow.
Debece is potentially the best handicapped horse in the race, on his second run for Dan Skelton.
He should really have won on his stable debut at Sandown in March - but was too free and didn’t get home.
He was raised 5lb for that defeat - but still looks to have leeway off a new mark of 135.
Cloudy Glenn was the game winner of last months Ladbrokes trophy - but he was clearly primed for that race, so may struggle tomorrow off a 10lb higher mark.
The form of Windsor Avenues seasonal debut run at Bangor, has subsequently been well franked - most notably, by the winner, Snow Leopardess…  
There is little doubt than he ran very well that day - but a third placing in this race 12 months ago, off a 2lb higher mark, suggests he’s an unlikely winner (as tomorrows race looks a stronger renewal)
Top Ville Ben won this race in 2019 - and off a mark 4lb higher than he races off tomorrow.
He loves Wetherby - and if he gets his favoured soft ground, and an uncontested lead, he could prove tough to pass.
Whilst outsider, Taking Risks, can’t be dismissed, in first time blinkers.
He won the Sky bet chase at Doncaster in January - and whilst he has disappointed a few times since then, he is now on a pound lower mark - with the new head gear suggesting that connections will be going for it.

Leopardstown

There’s an interesting card to open up the 4 day Leopardstown meeting - but as at Kempton, potential betting opportunities look thin on the ground…

2:20

The grade 1 Racing Post novice chase is the high-light of the card - but the betting suggests it’s a 2 horse race…

Ferny Hollow has been installed a slight odds on favourite, on his second run over fences.
He won that race - and he won his only race, last season.
That was an innocuous looking novice hurdle at Gowran Park in November - when he got the better of Bob Olinger.
The latter then went unbeaten for the remainder of the season - and in winning the Ballymore hurdle at the Cheltenham festival, layed strong claims to being the best novice of the season.
Realistically, his only rival for that title, was Appreciate It - and he was beaten by Ferny Hollow in the Champion bumper at the 2019 Cheltenham festival.
To say that Ferny Hollows form is strong, is a bit of an under-statement !
Ofcourse, strong form in bumpers/over hurdles, in the past 2 years, is not the same as strong recent form over fences.
However, he won nicely on his chasing debut at Punchestown earlier this month - so there is reason to believe that all the ability remains.
However, if he is to conceded to 13lb to Riviere D’etel tomorrow, then it will need to !
She has been hugely impressive in racking up a hatrick in early season novice chases.
Her jumping has been pretty much flawless - and whilst she has doubtless benefited from both a juvenile allowance and a mares allowance - she will receive both again tomorrow.
On chasing form she sets the clear standard - and Ferny Hollow will need to be operating at close to the level he operated at, in bumpers/over hurdles, if he is to beat her.
The only other runner worthy of consideration, is Coeur Sublime.
He was runner up to Ferny Hollow in Punchestown race - when making both his chasing debut and debut for Henry De Bromhead.
He actually looked as if he might win that day, approaching the final fence - but Ferny Hollow ultimately proved too strong.
A lot will depend on which way yhe pair of them have gone since that run.
Coeur Sublime is a horse who has tended to run well fresh - so the expectation is that he won’t improve as much as Ferny Hollow.
However, that may not be the case…
It can certainly be argued that he represents a bit of value at the likely odds - at least to reverse the form with the winner…

2:55


This is the best race on the card from a betting perspective - even if it does look a bit of a minefield !

Henry de Bromhead saddles 4 - suggesting he is quite keen to win it !
Defan is probably the most interesting of the quartet.
He won at Listowel in September - and would have gone close to following up last time at Thurles - if he’d not tried to take the final fence with him !
Tiger Voice and Zarkareva are 2 of the other De Bromhead runners - and like the Peter Fahey trained Soviet Pimpernel, they are owned by Robcour.
All 3 have a definite chance - and again, the fact that the owners are so strongly represented in the race, makes you think they are particularly keen to secure the prize.
Willie Mullins relies on Fan de Blue - a second season novice, stepping down in trip.
His case isn’t compelling based on form - but you under-estimate Willie at your peril !
Similarly, Gordon Elliott relies on just the one runner - in Coach Carter.
He’s very inexperienced, with just 2 previous runs over fences.
His opening mark of 130 is a complete guess - and he really could be anything.
Take All is the final one of major interest.
He won at Wexford in October - and has been placed behind Riviere D’Etel in his 2 subsequent races.
Based on his 12 length second in his most recent race, an opening chase mark of 135 looks fair enough.

Limerick

2:40


This is the high-light of the Limerick card - and it’s a cracking little novice chase.

I’m a little surprised to see that Farouk D’Alene has been installed the early favourite…
He was a very decent novice hurdler last season (though his season was cut short) - and he won well on his chasing debut at Navan, earlier this month,
However, he is being priced up on potential - and a few of his rivals tomorrow, have undoubtedly achieved more…
Gabynako finished runner up in the Grade 1 Drinmore chase, on his most recent outing.
More than that, he was arguably unlucky not to win, as poor jumps at the final 2 fences, probably cost him victory.
He’d been immaculate when winning on his previous start at Fairyhouse - and if he gets into a rhythm tomorrow, he could prove hard to pass.
Lifetime Ambition was sent off favourite for the Drinmore on the back of an exemplary round of jumping, when winning at Down Royal.
He wasn’t as good at Fairyhouse - and it may have been that he resented not being able to lead.
With Gabynako again in the line up, it could be a similar story tomorrow - but if connections decide to adopt different tactics, he could be interesting.
Vanillier is the final one of interest.
He was a revelation when winning the Albert Bartlett at last years Cheltenham festival - but has been a little disappointing on his 2 chase starts this season.
He finished behind Lifetime Ambition on the first of them - and whilst he did win his most recent start, his caused was helped by 2 of his main rivals falling.
The other issue with him is the trip.
He will be tackling 2m4f tomorrow - but I think he will need 3 miles to be at his best.
Very soft ground will help - though I suspect he may still lack a bit of tactical speed when it’s needed.

No comments:

Post a Comment

End of season report - 2021-22

  Introduction I made very few changes to the service for the tenth TVB season. The tips/Best bets had been profitable ...