Best bets
Limerick2:40
Espanito Bello 0.5pt win 9/1
Matrix bets
LImerick
2:40
Full Time Score 1 unit win CEP 20 FP 13
2:40
Full Time Score 1 unit win CEP 20 FP 13
It was very tempting to swerve todays racing
completely…
As I said in the preview yesterday evening, the UK racing is particularly poor - and whilst there are some good races taking place at Leopardstown, they don’t have the right shape for betting (short priced favs, who will be hard to beat).
There is really only one race of interest - but it’s at Limerick.
I’ve no issue with Limerick (!) - but the exchange markets for races there, are incredibly weak (even at 10:30).
The issue I had, was that I’d got quite a strong fancy - and all of the conventional bookmakers were offering a fair price (9/1).
As it’s in a competitive handicap, plenty of the other runners will be backed - so if you have to back on the exchanges, it should really just be a case of biding your time and waiting for an acceptable price (which will come - eventually !).
If you don’t want to wait around, then I suggest you just ask for BSP (in this instance).
Anyway, enough of my trials and tribulations - here’s my thoughts on the actual races…
Leopardstown
The likely presence of Ardhill made the 1:10 a near impossible race to play in.
As it happened, he didn’t get a run - but by the time he’d been withdrawn, I’d already decide to swerve the contest.
In truth, I would only ever have considered tackling it with the Matrix - with Duffel Coat, the one who would have interested me most.
It’s a race I’m happy enough just to watch tho…
The 1:45 should be won by either Klassical Dream or Flooring Porter - but the betting tells you that.
Neither are completely reliable - so an argument could be made for taking them on - but it would be more in hope than expectation.
Ronald Pump is the most interesting alternative - provided he’s recovered from a disappointing recent run at Ascot.
However, again, it’s a race I’m happy to just watch.
A Plus Tard really should win the 2:20.
On all known form, he’s well clear of his rivals. He’s also only 7 - and at the peak of his powers.
Again, he could only be opposed in hope, rather than expectation…
Janidil is the most interesting of his opponents - but he’s been picked up by Pricewise, so any chance of getting a bit of value on him, has now gone.
Galopin des Champs is the most likely winner of the 2:55 - but again, he’s a short priced favourite.
Blue Sari could be a threat provided he builds on his chasing debut.
However, it doesn’t help that both horses are trained by Willie Mullins.
I’m sure Willie plays things with a straight bat - but at very least, those associated with the stable will have a good feel for which horse is more likely to win (ability and fitness).
As a consequence, if we play in the race, we’ll be at a disadvantage…
Limerick
The 2:40 is by far the best race of the day, from a betting perspective - and I’m quite keen on Espanito Bello…
He looked a horse of huge potential, last season - and I’m sure he’s capable of winning a race such as this.
His trainer, Barry Connell, will have had loads of possible options for him - so I suspect he has been targeted at this race (which is quite valuable).
He should be better for a pipe opener over hurdles - and if I’ve read him right, he’s going to run a massive race.
In fairness, it is quite a competitive contest - and there are plenty of others who I would expect to be backed.
Dinny Lacey has been supported into favouritism - and is clearly thought capable of better than he’s shown; whilst Longhouse Poet has also remained strong in the market (but is held by Espanito, on last seasons form).
However, I see the biggest danger as Full Time Score.
He’s completely unexposed, so could literally be anything.
I think he’ll need to be very good to beat Espanito, but stranger things happen.
He’s worth a saver for the Matrix.
I was never going to get involved at either Catterick or Leicester - and the latter was abandoned early this morning due to incessant rain (which I can vouch for !)
As I said in the preview yesterday evening, the UK racing is particularly poor - and whilst there are some good races taking place at Leopardstown, they don’t have the right shape for betting (short priced favs, who will be hard to beat).
There is really only one race of interest - but it’s at Limerick.
I’ve no issue with Limerick (!) - but the exchange markets for races there, are incredibly weak (even at 10:30).
The issue I had, was that I’d got quite a strong fancy - and all of the conventional bookmakers were offering a fair price (9/1).
As it’s in a competitive handicap, plenty of the other runners will be backed - so if you have to back on the exchanges, it should really just be a case of biding your time and waiting for an acceptable price (which will come - eventually !).
If you don’t want to wait around, then I suggest you just ask for BSP (in this instance).
Anyway, enough of my trials and tribulations - here’s my thoughts on the actual races…
Leopardstown
The likely presence of Ardhill made the 1:10 a near impossible race to play in.
As it happened, he didn’t get a run - but by the time he’d been withdrawn, I’d already decide to swerve the contest.
In truth, I would only ever have considered tackling it with the Matrix - with Duffel Coat, the one who would have interested me most.
It’s a race I’m happy enough just to watch tho…
The 1:45 should be won by either Klassical Dream or Flooring Porter - but the betting tells you that.
Neither are completely reliable - so an argument could be made for taking them on - but it would be more in hope than expectation.
Ronald Pump is the most interesting alternative - provided he’s recovered from a disappointing recent run at Ascot.
However, again, it’s a race I’m happy to just watch.
A Plus Tard really should win the 2:20.
On all known form, he’s well clear of his rivals. He’s also only 7 - and at the peak of his powers.
Again, he could only be opposed in hope, rather than expectation…
Janidil is the most interesting of his opponents - but he’s been picked up by Pricewise, so any chance of getting a bit of value on him, has now gone.
Galopin des Champs is the most likely winner of the 2:55 - but again, he’s a short priced favourite.
Blue Sari could be a threat provided he builds on his chasing debut.
However, it doesn’t help that both horses are trained by Willie Mullins.
I’m sure Willie plays things with a straight bat - but at very least, those associated with the stable will have a good feel for which horse is more likely to win (ability and fitness).
As a consequence, if we play in the race, we’ll be at a disadvantage…
Limerick
The 2:40 is by far the best race of the day, from a betting perspective - and I’m quite keen on Espanito Bello…
He looked a horse of huge potential, last season - and I’m sure he’s capable of winning a race such as this.
His trainer, Barry Connell, will have had loads of possible options for him - so I suspect he has been targeted at this race (which is quite valuable).
He should be better for a pipe opener over hurdles - and if I’ve read him right, he’s going to run a massive race.
In fairness, it is quite a competitive contest - and there are plenty of others who I would expect to be backed.
Dinny Lacey has been supported into favouritism - and is clearly thought capable of better than he’s shown; whilst Longhouse Poet has also remained strong in the market (but is held by Espanito, on last seasons form).
However, I see the biggest danger as Full Time Score.
He’s completely unexposed, so could literally be anything.
I think he’ll need to be very good to beat Espanito, but stranger things happen.
He’s worth a saver for the Matrix.
I was never going to get involved at either Catterick or Leicester - and the latter was abandoned early this morning due to incessant rain (which I can vouch for !)
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