Best bets
Sandown
1:50
War Lord 0.5pt win 11/1 (10/1 is acceptable)
3:00
Christmas in April 0.5pt win 8/1 (7/1 is acceptable)
Aintree
3:10
Ballyandy 0.5pt win 16/1 (14/1 is acceptable)
Chepstow
1:22
Ami Desbois 0.5pt win 8/1 (7/1 is acceptable)
Matrix bets
Chepstow
1:22
Laskalin 1 unit win CEP 6 FP 7
Eclair Surf 1 unit win CEP 10.5 FP 9
Sandown
3:00
Strictlyadancer 1 unit win CEP 8 FP 6
3:35
Benson 3 units win CEP 5.4 FP 6
Aintree
12:55
Galahad Quest 3 units win CEP 4.8 FP 5
2:40
Snow Leopardess 2 units win CEP 7.2 FP 8
Achille 2 units win CEP 10 FP 13
Kimberlite Candy 1 unit win CEP 13.5 FP 13
Tout est Permis 1 unit win CEP 24 FP 21
Hill Sixteen 1 unit win CEP 29 FP 26
3:10
Tamar Bridge 3 units win CEP 4.2 FP 4.5
Kateson 1 unit win CEP 12 FP 11
Martinhal 1 unit win CEP 15.5 FP 13
Chepstow
1:22
Laskalin 1 unit win CEP 6 FP 7
Eclair Surf 1 unit win CEP 10.5 FP 9
Sandown
3:00
Strictlyadancer 1 unit win CEP 8 FP 6
3:35
Benson 3 units win CEP 5.4 FP 6
Aintree
12:55
Galahad Quest 3 units win CEP 4.8 FP 5
2:40
Snow Leopardess 2 units win CEP 7.2 FP 8
Achille 2 units win CEP 10 FP 13
Kimberlite Candy 1 unit win CEP 13.5 FP 13
Tout est Permis 1 unit win CEP 24 FP 21
Hill Sixteen 1 unit win CEP 29 FP 26
3:10
Tamar Bridge 3 units win CEP 4.2 FP 4.5
Kateson 1 unit win CEP 12 FP 11
Martinhal 1 unit win CEP 15.5 FP 13
There’s some good racing today - some really good racing -
and I was always confident that I’d be able to find a few bets.
I had quite a long list of potentials - the tricky bit was deciding which ones to go with !
Of the 10 races I previewed, I decided that 3 were best swerved completely.
I fancy the favourite in 3 of the others - which left me 4 to focus on.
One of those was the Becher chase - and despite turning the race round innumerable times, I couldn’t find a Best bet.
It’s therefore being covered via the Matrix.
I was happy enough issuing Best bets for the other 3 - and I also went back and issued a Best bet against one of the favourites that I fancied !
Have I made the right calls ? - Only time will tell..!
Here’s my thinking on a race-by-race basis…
Sandown
I wanted to be against Third Time Lucki at the prices, in the 1:50 - but so it appears, does everyone else !
The only consolation, is that I’m also happy to oppose Edwardstone - and that’s the one that most people have latched on to.
If the price had been there, I would have gone will Il Ridoto - but it wasn’t so I went with War Lord instead.
He beat Il Ridoto at Newton Abbot - and then beat Minella Drama at Carlisle.
There are arguments why the form of both races might be reversed - but there are also arguments why it will be upheld.
War Lord is clearly progressing over fences - will have no issue with the ground - and could have the race run to suit (a fast pace).
At the prices, he’s a decent bet.
There’s been a lot of support for Chacun Pour Soi in the Tingle Creek (2:25) - suggesting that he’s ready for today.
If that’s the case, then he’s likely to win.
The softer ground will also help him - whilst it won’t help Nube Negra.
Hitman is moderately interesting - and I did consider a tiny play on him for the Matrix.
However I eventually decided it was a race that could just be watched…
The 3:00 looks quite an open race - but I like Christmas in April best.
He was very progressive 2 seasons ago - and whilst that progression stalled a bit last season, I’m happy to put that down to the general issues within the Tizzard yard.
He showed plenty on his comeback at Carlisle - and if he can build on that, he looks sure to run well.
Diese Aba and Strictlyadancer are both dangers - and the former has drifted to a price where I feel he warrants a saver for the Matrix.
I like Benson best in the 3:35 - but his price got hammered yesterday evening, so there is minimal value in his price this morning.
I can’t see it getting much lower, so I’ll put him in the Matrix - and have a few units on him.
I also want to cover Natural History. He may well bomb out - but he has the ability to win, if everything drops right for him.
In truth, this race isn’t quite as straightforward as I originally thought (I can make a case for a few of the others) - so that stops me from going in too deep on it…
Aintree
I would have liked to make Galahad Quest a Best bet in the 12:55 - but the price isn’t there…
I think he’s the most likely winner - but the race has a bit of depth.
There is no margin in an early quote of 3/1 - but I’ll cover him in the Matrix and hope his BSP is a bit bigger (4/1 would be acceptable)
The 1:30 is the least interesting race of the day (harsh - but fair !).
The suggestion is that White Pepper could be quite smart - and if she is, she will probably win.
2 of the other Irish raiders (Six Feet Apart and Se Sessions) look the most likely dangers - with Malakahna the best of the home team.
However, they are the top 4 in the betting…
As I said in the preview, ground conditions are likely to be key for the 2:05.
I’m not sure exactly how the ground will be riding - but I would guess at ‘very soft’ !
If that’s the case, then it is likely to suit Native River best - and he looks the one to beat.
His price is a bit bigger than I expected (4.8 on the exchange) - but it’s still too short for me to suggest him, without being confident over the ground.
I’ll cover this race on the Live thread.
I was hoping that I might be able to find a Best bet in the Becher chase (2:40) - but I can’t…
I like Snow Leopardess best - but she’s the favourite. My next choice is Achille - but he’s only a couple of points bigger in the betting.
This is a classic Matrix race - so I’ll build one around those 2.
I’ll also add in Kimberlite Candy, Mighty Thunder, Tout Est permis and Hill Sixteen.
I reckon there’s a close to 50:50 chance of me hitting the winner with one of those 6 - so try and adjust your stakes to achieve at least that…
I thought long and hard over whether to make Ballyandy a Best bet in the 3:10 - and the bottom line is, if I hadn’t done - and he wins - I’ll be beyond repair !!
I should point out that this doesn’t mean he’s a certainty - far from it !
However, he’s as well handicapped as any horse running this afternoon - and that’s ignoring the 10lb claim of his jockey !
Just 12 months ago, he ran a series of career best races - so whilst he may be in decline, that decline will need to have particularly rapid if he can’t be competitive off todays mark.
I think the step up to 2m4f - and softer ground - are exactly what he needs (he’s probably lost a bit of his pace).
At 14/1+, he’s a very good bet (unless the late market tells us otherwise !).
If he doesn’t run his race, then there aren’t too many that I fancy...
The favourite, Tamar Bridge is the obvious one - along with last seasons winner, Kateson.
I’ll build a Matrix with the 3 of them - and add in Martinhal, who I just have a feeling about.
Hopefully, one of the 4 will provide the race winner (ideally, Ballyandy !)
Chepstow
I think the ground will be key at Chepstow - and if the description of ‘Good - G/S in places’ is accurate, then Ami Desbois is the one to be on in the 1:22.
He ran a lifetime best, first time out last season - and Fergal is more than capable of getting one ready after a break.
He’s not massively well handicapped - but unlike a few of his rivals, today could be the main day for him.
Laskalin is impossible to assess - he warrants a saver for the Matrix: as does Eclair Surf.
He probably wants softer ground than he is going to get - unless ofcourse, the going description is inaccurate..!
I had quite a long list of potentials - the tricky bit was deciding which ones to go with !
Of the 10 races I previewed, I decided that 3 were best swerved completely.
I fancy the favourite in 3 of the others - which left me 4 to focus on.
One of those was the Becher chase - and despite turning the race round innumerable times, I couldn’t find a Best bet.
It’s therefore being covered via the Matrix.
I was happy enough issuing Best bets for the other 3 - and I also went back and issued a Best bet against one of the favourites that I fancied !
Have I made the right calls ? - Only time will tell..!
Here’s my thinking on a race-by-race basis…
Sandown
I wanted to be against Third Time Lucki at the prices, in the 1:50 - but so it appears, does everyone else !
The only consolation, is that I’m also happy to oppose Edwardstone - and that’s the one that most people have latched on to.
If the price had been there, I would have gone will Il Ridoto - but it wasn’t so I went with War Lord instead.
He beat Il Ridoto at Newton Abbot - and then beat Minella Drama at Carlisle.
There are arguments why the form of both races might be reversed - but there are also arguments why it will be upheld.
War Lord is clearly progressing over fences - will have no issue with the ground - and could have the race run to suit (a fast pace).
At the prices, he’s a decent bet.
There’s been a lot of support for Chacun Pour Soi in the Tingle Creek (2:25) - suggesting that he’s ready for today.
If that’s the case, then he’s likely to win.
The softer ground will also help him - whilst it won’t help Nube Negra.
Hitman is moderately interesting - and I did consider a tiny play on him for the Matrix.
However I eventually decided it was a race that could just be watched…
The 3:00 looks quite an open race - but I like Christmas in April best.
He was very progressive 2 seasons ago - and whilst that progression stalled a bit last season, I’m happy to put that down to the general issues within the Tizzard yard.
He showed plenty on his comeback at Carlisle - and if he can build on that, he looks sure to run well.
Diese Aba and Strictlyadancer are both dangers - and the former has drifted to a price where I feel he warrants a saver for the Matrix.
I like Benson best in the 3:35 - but his price got hammered yesterday evening, so there is minimal value in his price this morning.
I can’t see it getting much lower, so I’ll put him in the Matrix - and have a few units on him.
I also want to cover Natural History. He may well bomb out - but he has the ability to win, if everything drops right for him.
In truth, this race isn’t quite as straightforward as I originally thought (I can make a case for a few of the others) - so that stops me from going in too deep on it…
Aintree
I would have liked to make Galahad Quest a Best bet in the 12:55 - but the price isn’t there…
I think he’s the most likely winner - but the race has a bit of depth.
There is no margin in an early quote of 3/1 - but I’ll cover him in the Matrix and hope his BSP is a bit bigger (4/1 would be acceptable)
The 1:30 is the least interesting race of the day (harsh - but fair !).
The suggestion is that White Pepper could be quite smart - and if she is, she will probably win.
2 of the other Irish raiders (Six Feet Apart and Se Sessions) look the most likely dangers - with Malakahna the best of the home team.
However, they are the top 4 in the betting…
As I said in the preview, ground conditions are likely to be key for the 2:05.
I’m not sure exactly how the ground will be riding - but I would guess at ‘very soft’ !
If that’s the case, then it is likely to suit Native River best - and he looks the one to beat.
His price is a bit bigger than I expected (4.8 on the exchange) - but it’s still too short for me to suggest him, without being confident over the ground.
I’ll cover this race on the Live thread.
I was hoping that I might be able to find a Best bet in the Becher chase (2:40) - but I can’t…
I like Snow Leopardess best - but she’s the favourite. My next choice is Achille - but he’s only a couple of points bigger in the betting.
This is a classic Matrix race - so I’ll build one around those 2.
I’ll also add in Kimberlite Candy, Mighty Thunder, Tout Est permis and Hill Sixteen.
I reckon there’s a close to 50:50 chance of me hitting the winner with one of those 6 - so try and adjust your stakes to achieve at least that…
I thought long and hard over whether to make Ballyandy a Best bet in the 3:10 - and the bottom line is, if I hadn’t done - and he wins - I’ll be beyond repair !!
I should point out that this doesn’t mean he’s a certainty - far from it !
However, he’s as well handicapped as any horse running this afternoon - and that’s ignoring the 10lb claim of his jockey !
Just 12 months ago, he ran a series of career best races - so whilst he may be in decline, that decline will need to have particularly rapid if he can’t be competitive off todays mark.
I think the step up to 2m4f - and softer ground - are exactly what he needs (he’s probably lost a bit of his pace).
At 14/1+, he’s a very good bet (unless the late market tells us otherwise !).
If he doesn’t run his race, then there aren’t too many that I fancy...
The favourite, Tamar Bridge is the obvious one - along with last seasons winner, Kateson.
I’ll build a Matrix with the 3 of them - and add in Martinhal, who I just have a feeling about.
Hopefully, one of the 4 will provide the race winner (ideally, Ballyandy !)
Chepstow
I think the ground will be key at Chepstow - and if the description of ‘Good - G/S in places’ is accurate, then Ami Desbois is the one to be on in the 1:22.
He ran a lifetime best, first time out last season - and Fergal is more than capable of getting one ready after a break.
He’s not massively well handicapped - but unlike a few of his rivals, today could be the main day for him.
Laskalin is impossible to assess - he warrants a saver for the Matrix: as does Eclair Surf.
He probably wants softer ground than he is going to get - unless ofcourse, the going description is inaccurate..!
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