Best bets
Newbury2:35
Cobolobo 0.5pt win 18/1
Matrix bets
Newbury
1:25
The Russian Doyen 1 unit win CEP 9.8 FP 11
2:35
Gericault Roque 1 unit win CEP 5.3 FP 5.5
Crypto 1 unit win CEP 9 FP FP 7
3:05
Go Dante 1 unit win CEP 18 FP 15
Doncaster
2:50
Danny Whizzbang 1 unit win CEP 26 FP 17
Leopardstown
1:45
Bacardys 1 unit win CEP 13 FP 11
1:25
The Russian Doyen 1 unit win CEP 9.8 FP 11
2:35
Gericault Roque 1 unit win CEP 5.3 FP 5.5
Crypto 1 unit win CEP 9 FP FP 7
3:05
Go Dante 1 unit win CEP 18 FP 15
Doncaster
2:50
Danny Whizzbang 1 unit win CEP 26 FP 17
Leopardstown
1:45
Bacardys 1 unit win CEP 13 FP 11
When I first looked at todays fields, I had high hopes.
At Newbury in particular, there are a number of seemingly competitive handicaps - so I didn’t think that finding bets would be tricky.
However, when I looked a bit deeper, I found that the races weren’t quite as strong as the numbers suggested.
Most of the races could be whittled down to 3 or 4 - and it didn’t take long for the betting to reflect that.
Come this morning, and pretty much all of the horses of interest, were trading at 4/1 or less - and with 2 or 3 others of significant interest in each race - and allowing for the ‘luck’ variable, it doesn’t make sense to get involved at those kind of prices.
Ofcourse some of them may drift close to the off - but that’s no good when you are tipping early.
As a consequence, there is just the one Best bet on the day - plus a few more speculative ones for the Matrix.
Newbury
I like Early du Lemo best in the 1:25 - but he’s taking on a couple of improvers - and there is no margin in an early price of 3/1.
The Russian Doyen is quite interesting at a bigger price - accepting that he’s also quite risky !
He’s worth a small play for the Matrix.
Masters Legacy, Beauport and Dashel Drasher are the 3 of interest in the 2:00 - but at 7/2, 7/2 and 4/1, there’s again no margin in the early prices.
Half chances can be given to a few of the others - and Pounding Poet would become interesting, if he reached double figures on the exchanges.
However, at the prices currently available, I can’t see an angle into the race.
Again, the obvious ones have gone very short in the 2:35 - with Saint Palais and Gericault Roque now trading at prohibitively short prices.
Crypto has been a little less popular - but he is the one I fancy least, of the main 3…
Nestor Park has apparently been laid out for the race, which explains why he’s been well backed.
Any of the 4 could win - but I do think that Cobolobo has been overlooked…
His run behind Enqard at Ascot in January, gives him a really good chance - and he’s off a mark 4lb lower today.
I also thought he showed distinct promise on his return at Aintree.
He’s the only runner on the card for the Jonjos - and at 18/1, he is definitely worth a bet…
Rather than go EW - I’ll cover a couple of the main dangers for the Matrix.
I think Gericault Roque is the most likely winner: whilst Crypto is now a little over-priced…
There’s a lot of guesswork required in the 3:05 - tho I suspect Stage Star has been overbacked, because of his similarities with Bravemansgame.
That’s not to say he can’t win - just that he’s been put in too short.
Gringo D’aubrelle could well end up a ‘value’ price (he’s 9.4 on the exchanges, as I type) - but for the Matrix, Go Dante is worth a small risk.
He’s very highly thought of - and his disappointing run last time, can be explained by relatively quick ground (which he won’t face today !).
I was quite tempted to have a crack at the 3:35 - but there’s too much guesswork required…
Valleres is tempting - on a recovery mission, after a disappointing run at Newcastle; whilst I have a feeling that Grumpy Charlie could be quite well handicapped (and will appreciate conditions).
However, Fern Hill is a solid favourite: whilst Pactrolus has a great deal of potential (and Nicky Henderson tends to unleash his better horses at Newbury).
I’d be against the other 3 runners - but that doesn’t provide enough of an angle to entice me to get involved with the race.
Doncaster
I quite like the look of Cat Tiger in the 2:50 - and would have made him a Best bet at the early 6/1.
However, Paul Kealy put him up last night in the RP - and 6/1 became 4/1…
I suspect he will drift as the off approaches (he’s 9/2 as I type) - but from an early bet perspective, the damage has been done.
Danny Whizzbang is the most interesting of the outsiders.
He’s becoming well handicapped - and will relish the conditions.
He’s worth covering for the Matrix…
Zambella should win the 3:20 - though heavy ground would play into the hands of Kapga de Lilly.
I can’t see beyond the pair of them - but neither can the betting !
Leopardstown
The 1:45 looks a very open race - and no result would really surprise me…
Run Wild Fred sets the form standard - but equally, he doesn’t strike me as a grade 1 horse (tho he might not need to be one, in order to win !)
Vanillier would have been tempting at 5/1 - but not at 3/1…
Therefore, I think it is just worth having a small play for the Matrix, on Barcardys.
He’s risky - but he has the natural ability to win, if he puts it all together…
It’s hard to see beyond Sharjah in the 2:20.
Echoes of Rain looks the only realistic danger - but she will need to have improved massively on her seasonal debut if she’s to beat him.
I think you could argue that he’s actually a bit of value, at 4/5 - but they aren’t odds that are ever likely to attract me in…
At Newbury in particular, there are a number of seemingly competitive handicaps - so I didn’t think that finding bets would be tricky.
However, when I looked a bit deeper, I found that the races weren’t quite as strong as the numbers suggested.
Most of the races could be whittled down to 3 or 4 - and it didn’t take long for the betting to reflect that.
Come this morning, and pretty much all of the horses of interest, were trading at 4/1 or less - and with 2 or 3 others of significant interest in each race - and allowing for the ‘luck’ variable, it doesn’t make sense to get involved at those kind of prices.
Ofcourse some of them may drift close to the off - but that’s no good when you are tipping early.
As a consequence, there is just the one Best bet on the day - plus a few more speculative ones for the Matrix.
Newbury
I like Early du Lemo best in the 1:25 - but he’s taking on a couple of improvers - and there is no margin in an early price of 3/1.
The Russian Doyen is quite interesting at a bigger price - accepting that he’s also quite risky !
He’s worth a small play for the Matrix.
Masters Legacy, Beauport and Dashel Drasher are the 3 of interest in the 2:00 - but at 7/2, 7/2 and 4/1, there’s again no margin in the early prices.
Half chances can be given to a few of the others - and Pounding Poet would become interesting, if he reached double figures on the exchanges.
However, at the prices currently available, I can’t see an angle into the race.
Again, the obvious ones have gone very short in the 2:35 - with Saint Palais and Gericault Roque now trading at prohibitively short prices.
Crypto has been a little less popular - but he is the one I fancy least, of the main 3…
Nestor Park has apparently been laid out for the race, which explains why he’s been well backed.
Any of the 4 could win - but I do think that Cobolobo has been overlooked…
His run behind Enqard at Ascot in January, gives him a really good chance - and he’s off a mark 4lb lower today.
I also thought he showed distinct promise on his return at Aintree.
He’s the only runner on the card for the Jonjos - and at 18/1, he is definitely worth a bet…
Rather than go EW - I’ll cover a couple of the main dangers for the Matrix.
I think Gericault Roque is the most likely winner: whilst Crypto is now a little over-priced…
There’s a lot of guesswork required in the 3:05 - tho I suspect Stage Star has been overbacked, because of his similarities with Bravemansgame.
That’s not to say he can’t win - just that he’s been put in too short.
Gringo D’aubrelle could well end up a ‘value’ price (he’s 9.4 on the exchanges, as I type) - but for the Matrix, Go Dante is worth a small risk.
He’s very highly thought of - and his disappointing run last time, can be explained by relatively quick ground (which he won’t face today !).
I was quite tempted to have a crack at the 3:35 - but there’s too much guesswork required…
Valleres is tempting - on a recovery mission, after a disappointing run at Newcastle; whilst I have a feeling that Grumpy Charlie could be quite well handicapped (and will appreciate conditions).
However, Fern Hill is a solid favourite: whilst Pactrolus has a great deal of potential (and Nicky Henderson tends to unleash his better horses at Newbury).
I’d be against the other 3 runners - but that doesn’t provide enough of an angle to entice me to get involved with the race.
Doncaster
I quite like the look of Cat Tiger in the 2:50 - and would have made him a Best bet at the early 6/1.
However, Paul Kealy put him up last night in the RP - and 6/1 became 4/1…
I suspect he will drift as the off approaches (he’s 9/2 as I type) - but from an early bet perspective, the damage has been done.
Danny Whizzbang is the most interesting of the outsiders.
He’s becoming well handicapped - and will relish the conditions.
He’s worth covering for the Matrix…
Zambella should win the 3:20 - though heavy ground would play into the hands of Kapga de Lilly.
I can’t see beyond the pair of them - but neither can the betting !
Leopardstown
The 1:45 looks a very open race - and no result would really surprise me…
Run Wild Fred sets the form standard - but equally, he doesn’t strike me as a grade 1 horse (tho he might not need to be one, in order to win !)
Vanillier would have been tempting at 5/1 - but not at 3/1…
Therefore, I think it is just worth having a small play for the Matrix, on Barcardys.
He’s risky - but he has the natural ability to win, if he puts it all together…
It’s hard to see beyond Sharjah in the 2:20.
Echoes of Rain looks the only realistic danger - but she will need to have improved massively on her seasonal debut if she’s to beat him.
I think you could argue that he’s actually a bit of value, at 4/5 - but they aren’t odds that are ever likely to attract me in…
No comments:
Post a Comment