Dec 4th - Preview for Sandown, Aintree & Chepstow

 It’s a typically busy mid-winter Saturday tomorrow - with 5 NH meetings.

Sandown and Aintree share top billing - though there are also some decent races at both Chepstow and Wetherby.

Time constraints mean that I can’t cover all of the races - but I’ll preview the 8 that are on terrestrial TV - plus a couple of others (one from Chepstow and an additional one from Aintree).

I’ll aim to issue any bets at the usual time for a Saturday (so just after 9:00 for the Best bets - and around 10:30 for the Matrix)


Sandown

1:50

The first of 2 grade 1 contests on the card - this one is for novice chasers

Third Time Lucki heads the betting on the back of 2 wins at Cheltenham.
He was particularly impressive on the first occasion - when he powered through the race and came home unchallenged.
However, he was slightly less impressive last time - when he also powered through the race - but looked as if he had little left, for the Cheltenham hill.
Sandown also has a hill - so that could make things interesting…
That said, his fast, accurate jumping should be a real asset over the Railway fences.
He’s a tough one to call…
All of his rivals have a chance of beating him - which is probably why he’s been relatively weak in the early market.
Edwardstone was impressive last time at Warwick, when finally getting off the mark over fences.
He definitely has a bit of class about him.
Minella Drama isn’t as classy - but he’s a solid jumper - with a fair amount of talent.
He lost out to War Lord on his most recent outing at Carlisle - though there was virtually nothing between the pair.
Ordinarily, I’d expect that form to be confirmed - but Minella Dramas jumping may enable him to reverse the form.
Whatever, I wouldn’t expect there to be much between the pair.
Stolen Silver has been running well in good handicaps - but probably doesn’t have the class of most of his rivals: whilst Do your Job is unexposed over fences (just one run) - but was high class over hurdles.
Provided the ground doesn’t get too soft, he should outrun his odds.
Il Ridoto is the final runner.
He did us a massive favour last Saturday, when bolting up at Newbury.
That was off a mark of 131 in a handicap - so I didn’t expect to see him running a week later in a grade 1 !
In fairness, it was a decent handicap - and he did hack up, on only his second run in the UK.
I suspect he is still open to improvement - whilst the 6lb age allowance he receives, is a big plus.
He’s hard to assess - but definitely enters calculations…

2:25

The second grade 1 on the card is the Tingle Creek - one of the high-lights of mid winter.

Chacun Pour Soi has been sent over by Willie Mullins - and he is arguably better class than he rivals.
He’s already won 5 grade 1 chases - and his demolition of Allaho at Punchestown in the spring, marked him out as something special.
Nube Negra was 25 lengths back in third that day - and on that form, has absolutely no chance tomorrow.
However, a month earlier, he had finished just in front of Chacun Pour Soi, when the pair were placed in the Champion stakes at Cheltenham.
The question is, which of those form lines do you believe..?
My feeling is that both horses should have been spot on for Cheltenham - so that’s the more reliable.
Nube Negra almost certainly ran below form at Punchestown - which again suggests that he could be a good bet to come out on top.
However, Chacun Pour Soi probably didn’t run up to form at Cheltenham - which makes it all a bit of a puzzle.
I would expect Nube Negra to be ready to run for his life tomorrow - and the same may not be true to Chacun Pour soi.
Not that this is just a 2 horses race...!
On Champion chase form, Greaneteen has every chance - as he finished just behind the principals in fourth.
He subsequently beat Altior at Sandown on the final day of the season - and on that form, he has a definite chance tomorrow.
However, he disappointed on his comeback run at Exeter - and that running suggests he may struggle to beat his stablemate, Hitman.
In truth, I’m not convinced that Hitman is quick enough to win a race of this nature -but he’s still only 5, so has scope for improvement.
Captain Guiness is the final runner - and he could be the fly in the ointment.
As with Hitman, his form suggests he won’t be good enough - but he has loads of potential - and the fact Henry de Bromhead sends him over, is almost a tip in itself.

All in all, a fascinating contest.

3:00

A long distance handicap chase, in which it’s not hard to make a case for the 2 market principals…

Strictlyadancer is on a roll.
He’s won his last 3 - in progressively stronger company - and whilst he is edging up the ratings, the handicapper may not have caught him just yet.
He’s being helped by the fact that he started life on a basement mark (110) - so even though he is now rated 19lb higher, in absolute terms, he still has quite a low mark (129).
More of an issue to him, is that he will be taking on better quality opponents - whilst this will also be his fifth race in 2 months (he lost the first of them).
The step up in trip may bring about more improvement - but equally, this could prove one step too many…
Diese Aba has an unblemished record at Sandown, having won on his 2 starts at the track.
The most recent of those, was in February - and off a mark just 3lb lower than he races off tomorrow.
He was a comfortable winner that day, so he remains handicapped to go very close - whilst his comeback run, when he was runner up at Aintree over hurdles, showed him to be in good form.
He’s another who is taking a step up in trip - but he’s been very strong at the line, both times he’s won at Sandown, so it’s quite possible that the extra distance will work in his favour.
Larry won a strong race at Ascot, at the end of October - and has probably been targeted at this, by Gary Moore.
He has won off a higher mark at the course, in that past - so is potentially well treated.
However, it remains to be seen, how he will handle the marathon trip.
The trip will be no issue for Christmas in April.
He was very progressive a couple of season ago - but struggled last season (as did many in the Tizzard stable).
That said, he won on his final outing of the season in May - and ran really well on his return at Carlisle, when runner up to an improver.
If he can build on that, then he could still have scope off his current mark.
I put up The Mighty Don, last time at Cheltenham - when he should probably have won.
However, he took a few of the fences with him - and Sandown is arguably even more of a jumping test.
If he gets round without mishap, he is handicapped to go close - but..!
Red Infantry is the final one of interest.
He was runner up in this race, 3 years ago, off a 7lb higher mark - and won at Doncaster last season, off a mark just 11lb lower than he races off tomorrow.
He’s clearly handicapped to go close - and will be well suited by the test.
However, this is quite a strong race - and he’s now 11 - so probably not quite as good as he was…

3:35

I was hoping to be able to take a risk on Benson in this…
As regular readers will know, I’m a big fan of the horse - and put him up in a hot Ascot handicap, just before last Christmas.
He could only finish 4th in that race - but came home like a train, having been tailed off, turning in.
That run suggested he was one to be with next time - however, ‘next time’ was 11 months later..!
I’ve no idea what happened to him during the interim - but you have to assume that he had some sort of issue.
Anyway, he reappeared at Cheltenham last month , in what looked strong race - and put up an eye catching performance.
Ultimately he was beaten a fair way behind Gowel Road - but he again showed a deal of promise.
He comfortably won tomorrows race 12 months ago - so the test will suit him well - and he must have every chance of doubling up, off a mark just 8lb higher.
However, he’s been well picked up in the early betting - and I can see no margin in his current price of 7/2…
Hudson de Grugy is second favourite - but he should have his work cut out to beat Elham Valley.
The pair clashed in the juvenile race on this card 12 moths ago - and Elham Valley came out on top by nearly 2 lengths.
Furthermore Elham Valley is 10lb better off at the weights tomorrow - so it’s a bit of a mystery as to how Hudson is a 5/1 shot and Elham Valley twice that price !
Ofcourse things are rarely that simple (as we’ve already seen at least a couple of times this season) - but all the same…
Natural History is a stable companion of Hudson de Grugy - and he is certainly of some interest.
He’s rated 101 on the flat - which suggests he should be competitive off a mark in the 140s over hurdles.
However, he was well beaten last time at Plumpton, off a mark of just 125…
In truth, excuses are wearing a little thin for him - but the fact remains that he has sufficient natural ability to win off his current mark, if connections can get him right.
Metier is the other one worth a mention.
He won the grade 1 Tolworth hurdle last year, over course and distance, before disappointing in the supreme hurdle at the Cheltenham festival.
His rating of 144 looks about right - and as he would prefer softer ground, he may be one to watch on his comeback…

Aintree

12:55

This is a really good race - and it's a shame that it's not being shown on terrestrial TV…
The only issue is, all of the horses of particular interest, are sat at the top of the betting.

Galahad Quest is probably the most interesting of them all.
He finished fifth last time in the Paddy Power gold cup - which is top class handicap form.
More than that, he gets to run tomorrow, off a mark 1lb lower.
That's very generous - and if he’s in the same form, he’s likely to take a bit of beating…
Annual Invictus has won his 2 of his 3 starts this season, in the style of an improving horse.
That was always a possibility, as he was a fair novice hurdler, who looked likely to be even better when sent over fences.
The only issue with him, is that his handicap rating is on the rise - and he races tomorrow, off a mark 8lb higher than the one he started the season on.
Palmers Hill finally came good last time out at Wetherby.
He’d always threatened to be a decent chaser - but has rarely been seen, over the past few seasons.
He only got a 4lb rise for his Wetherby win - and he still looks to have scope off his new mark of 134.
Five Star Getaway is the final one for the short list.
He racked up a hattrick last season - before disappointing on his final start at Ayr.
He showed little on his return at Chepstow in October - but could be a different proposition tomorrow, with that run under his belt.

1:30

Fillies juvenile hurdle races, are not really an area of expertise for me (or for many people, I would think !) - so I won’t go into too much detail on this particular race…

There are 4 runners over from Ireland (presumably in search of ‘black type’) and they all warrant respect.

White Pepper heads the early betting for Gavin Cromwell.
She was decent on the flat - and won easily over hurdles at Galway in October.
She sets a fair standard.
That said, Six Feet Under for Joseph O’Brien and Sea Sessions for Ross O’Sullivan are also noteworthy raiders.
Of the pair, I slightly prefer the former - but based on minimal evidence.
Calvados is the final Irish runner - and whilst she looks less likely than the other 3, I doubt she can be confidently dismissed from calculations.
Malakana appeals most of the home team.
She’s ex French and won easily on her hurdling debut at Fakenham, for Ian Williams.
She’s impossible to assess (as are most of them !) - but appears to possess a reasonable level of ability and a fair amount of potential.

I suspect this will end up a watching race…

2:05

The result of this race is likely to be determined by the state of the ground.

It’s hard to make a case for the 3 outsiders (a case could be made for Tiger Roll - but connections are almost certainly working on his handicap mark, wit ha view to the Grand National) - meaning there are 5 to concentrate on.
Native River and Sam Brown are both confirmed stayers, at their best on soft/heavy ground; Whilst Protektorat, Imperial Aura and Simply the Betts are all unproven over tomorrows trip - and would therefore benefit from the ground not being too deep.
The ground at Aintree is currently described as ‘soft’ - but according to the forecast, they could receive a fair amount of rain, prior to tomorrow afternoon - in which case, the possibility of heavy ground can’t be ruled out.
If that happens, then Native River is the obvious one - though Sam Brown may
well be the ‘value’ bet in the race.
If however, the rainfall is minimal, things will look very different.
In that case, Protektorat is the most likely winner - though I could also be interested in Simply the Betts, on his second run for Paul Nichols.
I could obviously drill into the form of the various contenders and make a case based on historical runs - but I do feel that ground conditions will be key to the outcome of this race.
I guess I may have a better idea tomorrow morning - but in all likelihood, this will be a race best tackled on the Live thread…

2:40

22 runners are scheduled to go to post for the Becher chase - and it should be some sight, watching them all (hopefully !) jump round the big fences

The presence of Chris’s Dream, means the handicap has a slightly lop-sided look to it.
Only 2 horses (him and Lord du Mesnil) will carry more than 11st - whilst 8 of the runners, will be carrying more than the handicapper allotted them.

Most of the runners can be given a chance of sorts - and even coming up with a short-list, isn’t particularly easy…

Mac Tottie is probably a good place to start.
He was an impressive winner of the Grand Sefton at the last Aintree meeting - and whilst he has been raised 7lb for that win, his new mark doesn’t look too onerous - provided he stays the extended trip.
Snow Leopardess should have no issue with the trip.
She was an impressive winner on her return at Bangor - and whilst she’s not previously tackled the Aintree fences, she jumps like a buck, so I wouldn’t expect them to cause her an issue.
She was raised 5lb for her win - but that was fair, considering the strength of the race and how easily she won.
Mighty Thunder really blossomed last spring: winning the Edinburgh national and Scottish national - and finishing runner up in the Midlands national.
Trip and ground will be no issue for him - it’ll come down to how well handicapped he is and whether he can cope with the fences.
Kimberlite Candy has finished runner up in the last 2 renewals of this race - so clearly loves the course.
He’s also at his best when fresh - so lack of a recent outing isn’t an issue.
However a mark of 150 looks to be as high as he’d want…
Achille is another seasonal debutante - but as with Kimberlite Candy, that’s a positive thing.
He’s put in big runs first time out, for the past 2 seasons.
He’s untried over the fences - but the main concern with him, is a rising handicap mark…
I could give Tout Est Permis a chance based on his handicap mark - but he didn’t appear to relish the fences when he ran in the Grand National in April.
That said, he could be a horse who is better in the first half of the season.
Hill Sixteen is the final one for the short(ish)-list.
He’s a couple of pounds out of the handicap - which isn’t ideal. However, he shaped well enough last time, on his stable debut for Sandy Thompson - and if he can build on that - and provided he copes with the fences - then he could outrun his odds.

3:10

This looks a bit of a minefield - but I’ll have a go at solving it - as I always do !

Kateson is the obvious place to start.
He won the corresponding race 12 months ago - and off precisely the same mark.
He’s only run 4 times since then - and didn’t perform badly on his penultimate outing, when fifth over course and distance.
There’s no reason why he won’t run well again tomorrow - it’s just a question of whether there are one or two better handicapped…
Tamar Bridge is the obvious one, on his handicap debut.
He hammered Bass Rock in a match last season - and that one is now rated 132.
Tamar Bridge runs off a mark of 128 tomorrow - which suggests he could be very well handicapped.
He was also an easy winner on his comeback at Wetherby at the end of October, from a horse who himself, won next time.
There is a chance that he is thrown in - and if so, he will be very hard to beat tomorrow…
Alberts Back won a couple of races last season - and isn’t badly handicapped on a mark just 1lb higher than for his last win.
However, he was well behind Bass Rock on his seasonal return, so will need to have come on massively from that run, if he is to play a part tomorrow.
Half chances can be given to the likes Pounding Poet and Winningseverything - even if it’s difficult to make compelling cases for them.
It’s also hard to make a compelling case for Ballyandy based on his 2 runs this season.
However, he’s been dropped 11lb on the back of them - and a 10lb claimer has been booked.
If NTD has got him back into form, then he is handicapped to absolutely bolt up 

Chepstow

1:22

Whilst it won’t be shown on terrestrial TV, the Welsh national trial is a really good, competitive race.

St Barts heads the early betting on his seasonal return.
He was a progressive novice last season - and could well be even better this season.
He definitely has a chance tomorrow - though I’d prefer the chances of a few others in the race…
Eclair Surf is one of them.
He too was a progressive novice last season - and has also had a run this season.
That was in the Bangor race won by Snow Leopardess - and he still had every chance when falling at the third last.
It seems a little odd that he’s been dropped a pound for that - even if running on the back of a fall, is never ideal…
Ami Desbois has his first run for Fergal - having transferred across as part of the merge with Graeme McPherson.
He ran a huge race first time out last season, when runner up to Double Shuffle at Kempton.
His 2 subsequent runs weren’t as good - but he’s back down to a mark just 1lb higher tomorrow - and with Lily Pinchin back in the saddle, must have every chance.
Laskalin and One for Rosie are both very hard to assess.
The first named didn’t show too much on his UK debut at Wetherby - but has been dropped 5lb for that run; stepped up half a mile in trip - and a 7lb claimer takes over in the saddle.
Trying to second guess the end result of that lot, really isn’t easy !
One for Rosie is just as hard to figure out.
He is being stepped up a mile in trip; will be sporting first time cheek pieces - and has a crack 2lb claimer on board.
Again, how he will perform, is anyones guess…