The onset of proper winter weather - and consequently decent ground - meant that the fields for the weekends races were strong.
There was some good quality racing on both Saturday and Sunday - though it still feels as if things are running 2 or 3 weeks behind where they would normally be, in terms of horse fitness etc.
As is so often the case, I had to switch allegiance from a few of my early fancies, because prices were crushed overnight.
It’s a familiar story - with the host of industry tipsters/podcasts that advise the day before, making it very hard to find value with form based selections on race day mornings.
Saturday
It wasn't too hard to find some bets on Saturday - though uncertainty over the ground at Aintree, made me a little nervous about getting too heavily involved there.
Ultimately I ended up with 4 best bets on the day - and a few for the Matrix (in fact, quite a few !).
The first Best bet ran in the Welsh national trial - at Chepstow.
The race had the advantage of not having been picked over as much as those at the days main meetings…
I went with Ami Desbois, on his debut for Fergal - and hoped that he might get an uncontested lead…
However, it was clear from early on, that Iwilldoit, wasn’t going to allow that to happen - and it was also soon clear, that Iwilldoit was travelling more strongly…
He broke Ami Desbois, early in the straight - and whilst Iwilldoit galloped on to a resounding victory, Ami Desbois faded into sixth place.
In addition to Ami Desbois, I covered Eclair Surf and Laskalin for the Matrix.
Laskalin was backed into favouritism - which was a bit surprising - but he never featured.
By contrast, Eclair Surf ran well - and finished third.
He may well have finished second, if he’d not made a bad mistake at the fifth last - though he was never going to beat the winner…
War Lord was the next Best bet to run, in the Henry VIII novice chase.
I was quite keen to take on the favourite, Third Time Lucki - though originally wanted to side with Il Diroto.
However, his price was crushed overnight - so I switched to War Lord.
In truth, I was happy enough with that change.
War Lord had beaten Il Diroto earlier in the season - and was definitely ‘value’, to confirm the form.
And confirm the form he did - and he also beat Third Time Lucki.
However, he was no match for Edwardstone, who won the race by 16 lengths, looking a class act in the process.
I certainly can’t claim that War Lord was unlucky.
However, Edwardstone did peck on landing, after jumping the ninth fence - and could easily have ended up on the floor.
Whatever anyone says, you need a few of those to go your way - and again, in this race, it didn’t…
War Lords stablemate, Christmas in April, was the next Best bet to run - but he put in a lamentable effort…
Maybe it was down to the ground (it was quicker than I expected) - but he was a big pre-race drifter - at one point, touching double his advised price.
That’s never a good sign - and he ran like a horse that someone knew wasn’t going to win…
I’d also covered Strictlyadancer for the Matrix - but he ran no better !
I think it’s fair to say that I’ve read many races worse, in my 10 year tenure !
The final Best bet on the day, was Ballyandy…
He was by far the riskiest of the quartet - but I felt he was handicapped to win, if he could somehow recapture his form !
My hope was that he would respond positively to the soft ground and longer trip - and he did.
He ran much better than he had done on his 2 previous starts this season - but all the same, a well beaten fifth place was a little underwhelming…
Because I felt there weren’t too many in the race with a chance, I also deployed a full Matrix - covering the Best bet on Ballyandy.
I sided with Tamar Bridge, Kateson and Martinhal - and it was the first named who just got the better of a stirring finish - with Kateson back in third.
When I first looked at the race, Tamar Bridge was the one I wanted to be with - but he was 3/1 in a 15 horse handicap - which felt too short.
Come the off, he was 2/1 - which I find amazing - but happens quite frequently…
In addition to that race, I also deployed a full Matrix on the Becher chase.
It was a very similar story, in that the horse I most fancied (Snow Leopardess) was too short in the morning, to be a Best bet.
However, by the off, the early 6/1 had become 4/1 !
How anyone can back a horse at 4/1 in a 22 runner race on its debut over the National fences, is beyond me - but clearly plenty of people were prepared to do just that...
And they were proved right - as she led throughout - and managed to fend off Hill Sixteen, by a nose.
The irritating part, was that I’d also put Hill Sixteen in the Matrix - and with a BSP of 23, a win for him would have been much better for the Matrix…
The other two Matrix bets on the day, were single ones on horses which I would liked to have made Best bets - but wasn’t prepared to do so, because of the early prices (similar to the situation with Snow Leopardess and Tamar Bridge).
Interestingly, both of them drifted to acceptable prices at the off (unlike the other 2) - but neither managed to win ! (again, unlike the other 2 !)
Galahad Quest was the first - and he was still travelling fine, when he crumpled on landing after jumping the ninth fence.
Benson was the other one. However, he’s clearly a ‘character’ - as he needed cajoling early - and then tried to duck out at the final flight !
He still finished fourth - and whilst he was never going to beat the winner, he was probably the second best horse in the race.
In the days feature conditions races:
Greaneteen took advantage of a below par effort from Chacun Pour Soi and won the Tingle Creek at the barely believable price of 12/1 (he was 7/2 on Wednesday !)
Whilst Protektorat relished the Aintree mud and completely outclassed Native River.
It was a staggering performance - as he pulled throuhgout and still cruised clear. You would want to see him repeat it, but the suggestion was very much that he could be Gold cup class…
Sunday
Things were much quieter on Sunday - which with time quite limited, was welcome !
There was a decent race at each of the days 4 meetings - but little of merit beyond that.
I issued just a single Best bet on the day - in the Peterborough chase.
My feeling was that Allmankind and Master Tommytucker might get into a pace dual - and as they were first and second favourites, that could present a betting opportunity - most obviously, for Eldorado Allen.
And that’s pretty much how it panned out -with Funambule Sivola also getting involved in a battle for the lead.
Master Tommytucker was the first to crack - and he appeared beaten, going out onto the second circuit.
Eldorado Allen was still travelling nicely - but then he made a mistake at the fifth last.
It didn’t look a really bad one - but the timing couldn’t have been worse - as it happened just as the pace was quickening.
He went from being in contention, to being 5 lengths behind - and at that level, it’s difficult to make up ground.
He lost no more - and was staying no strongly at the end - but First Flow was the one who took advantage of a situation which I hoped Eldorado Allen might exploit…
As with War Lord on Saturday, he wasn’t unlucky - but things certainly didn’t go in his favour.
The only other bets on the day were for the Matrix - and I felt slightly stitched up there !
Studying the form last night, the ground at Kelso was described as ‘Good - G/S in places’ - whilst the weather forecast was ‘chance of an odd shower’…
I therefore based my study on the assumption of relatively quick ground - but that’s not how it turned out !
I don’t know exactly what happened, weather-wise - all I do know, is that after race 2, the going was changed to ‘Soft - Heavy in places’ !
That’s some difference...
I pulled together a Matrix for the race - based around good ground specialist, Chidswell.
However, he was always going to struggle on very soft ground.
I guess the Matrix could have been saved by one of the others - but none of them relished the conditions - and it was left to the ultimate plodder, Big River, to grind out a victory !
Suffice to say, I felt a bit hard done by…
Over in Ireland, Allaho won an eventful John Durkan - though it was an odd race, with the 2 market leaders, Envoi Allen and Fakir D’oudaries massively disappointing.
As a consequence, Willie had the first 3 home - which is ominous for everyone else !
Melon managed to grab third place at 50/1 and make me wish I’d made the unofficial EW suggestion on him, official - but we all know that EW is not my style !
Finally, Energumene was an impressive winner of the Hilly Way at Cork.
Notebook really served it up to him in the first half of the race - and was an exhausted horse turning in.
It therefore says much for Energumenes ability, that he was able to fend off two more challenges up the straight and come home a comfortable winner.
I thinks it’s fair to say that he has substance to back up the hype - and on soft ground, he is going to take a bit of beating, over the minimum trip.
TVB.
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