Best bets
Leopardstown2:55
Defan 0.5pt win 8/1
Matrix bets
Kempton
1:20
Jacamar 1 unit win CEP 13 FP 13
2:30
Not so Sleepy 2 units win CEP 5.4 FP 5
Wetherby
2:10
Empire Steel 2 units win CEP 6.8 FP 6.6
Takingrisks 1 unit win CEP 38 FP 26
Leopardstown
2:20
Coeur Sublime 1 unit win CEP 17 FP 13
2:55
Take All 2 units win CEP 6.4 FP 7
It honestly felt as if everything that could do, was
conspiring against me this morning !
For a start, the days main card at Kempton is poor, from a betting perspective.
Then the weather intervened, and I’m really struggling to get a handle on how the ground will be riding at Kempton, Wetherby and Leopardstown.
I had earmarked 4 possible Best bets - but 2 of them were declared NRs, just after 9:00 - whilst the uncertainty over the ground has ruled out another.
So then there was one...
Here’s a bit more detail behind my thinking, on what’s already been a challenging day (and the racing hasn’t yet started yet !)
Kempton
The 1:20 is one of the few races on the day, where I might have been able to find a bet. However, nothing particularly grabs me…
I think I like Danny Kirwan best - but I’m not prepared to take a risk at 7/2.
Of the outsiders, Jacamar is the one that interests me most - and he warrants a tiny play for the Matrix, at the likely price…
I prefer Bravemansgame to Ahoy Senor in the 1:55 - because I think his superior jumping could prove decisive.
However, I’m not in the habit of tipping even money shots - and I don’t plant to start today !
I do think that Not so Sleepy could be a good bet in the 2:30 - provided the ground is soft (or worse).
He can currently be backed at 7/2 - and that would be quite acceptable, in the right conditions.
I can see him getting the run of the race - and on form, he has a very good chance.
I’ll cover him in the Matrix and have another look for the Live thread - as by then, I should have a much better feel for the state of the ground.
It’s possible to turn the King George (3:05) round and round, and get a different answer each time…
All of the main players can be given a chance - but equally, none of them are bomb proof.
I just about favour Clan des Obeaux - though I would prefer it if he’d had a prep run.
There is a chance that Chantry House might improve past him - but that’s more than factored into his price.
None of the outsiders grab me sufficiently to even warrant a play on the Matrix.
It’s therefore a watching race…
Wetherby
I wanted to side with Debece in the 2:10 - but he was declared a NR this morning (apparently he’s pulled a muscle).
In his absence, I think Empire Steel is just about the most likely race winner - and he won’t mind if the ground is very soft.
He’s worth a couple of units for the Matrix: whilst Takingrisks is also worth a tiny play.
He may be in decline - but is running off a mark that he can win from and the switch to blinkers is an interesting move.
Leopardstown
Whilst the betting suggests that the 2:20 is a match between Ferny Hollow and Riviere D’etel, I think Coeur Sublime is worth a small play for the Matrix.
He could have beaten Ferny Hollow last time, with a more judicious ride - and whilst the general expectation is that Ferny Hollow will show the greater improvement, that might not happen.
Ofcourse, Coeur Sublime will still need to master Riviere D’etel, but there is sufficient in his price to warrant a small risk.
The 2:55 looks a tricky contest - but I’m drawn to Defan…
I liked his attitude when he beat Zarkareva at Listowel - and whilst that one should in theory, reverse the form at todays revised weights, she won’t appreciate soft ground.
With only 3 runs over fences, Defan also has plenty of scope for improvement…
There are lots of potential dangers, but I’m most fearful of Take All, and he warrants covering for the Matrix.
Limerick
I had planned to make Lifetime Ambition a Best bet in the 2:40 - but he was declared a NR, just after 9:00.
Arguably, he would have had his work cut out to beat Gabynako, based on their runs last time in the Drinmore.
However, I suspect we would have seen a much better effort from Lifetime Ambition today.
Alas, we’ll never know !
In his absence, this looks a 2 horse race.
I’d slightly prefer Gabynako to Farouk D’alene - but not sufficiently to consider getting involved.
For a start, the days main card at Kempton is poor, from a betting perspective.
Then the weather intervened, and I’m really struggling to get a handle on how the ground will be riding at Kempton, Wetherby and Leopardstown.
I had earmarked 4 possible Best bets - but 2 of them were declared NRs, just after 9:00 - whilst the uncertainty over the ground has ruled out another.
So then there was one...
Here’s a bit more detail behind my thinking, on what’s already been a challenging day (and the racing hasn’t yet started yet !)
Kempton
The 1:20 is one of the few races on the day, where I might have been able to find a bet. However, nothing particularly grabs me…
I think I like Danny Kirwan best - but I’m not prepared to take a risk at 7/2.
Of the outsiders, Jacamar is the one that interests me most - and he warrants a tiny play for the Matrix, at the likely price…
I prefer Bravemansgame to Ahoy Senor in the 1:55 - because I think his superior jumping could prove decisive.
However, I’m not in the habit of tipping even money shots - and I don’t plant to start today !
I do think that Not so Sleepy could be a good bet in the 2:30 - provided the ground is soft (or worse).
He can currently be backed at 7/2 - and that would be quite acceptable, in the right conditions.
I can see him getting the run of the race - and on form, he has a very good chance.
I’ll cover him in the Matrix and have another look for the Live thread - as by then, I should have a much better feel for the state of the ground.
It’s possible to turn the King George (3:05) round and round, and get a different answer each time…
All of the main players can be given a chance - but equally, none of them are bomb proof.
I just about favour Clan des Obeaux - though I would prefer it if he’d had a prep run.
There is a chance that Chantry House might improve past him - but that’s more than factored into his price.
None of the outsiders grab me sufficiently to even warrant a play on the Matrix.
It’s therefore a watching race…
Wetherby
I wanted to side with Debece in the 2:10 - but he was declared a NR this morning (apparently he’s pulled a muscle).
In his absence, I think Empire Steel is just about the most likely race winner - and he won’t mind if the ground is very soft.
He’s worth a couple of units for the Matrix: whilst Takingrisks is also worth a tiny play.
He may be in decline - but is running off a mark that he can win from and the switch to blinkers is an interesting move.
Leopardstown
Whilst the betting suggests that the 2:20 is a match between Ferny Hollow and Riviere D’etel, I think Coeur Sublime is worth a small play for the Matrix.
He could have beaten Ferny Hollow last time, with a more judicious ride - and whilst the general expectation is that Ferny Hollow will show the greater improvement, that might not happen.
Ofcourse, Coeur Sublime will still need to master Riviere D’etel, but there is sufficient in his price to warrant a small risk.
The 2:55 looks a tricky contest - but I’m drawn to Defan…
I liked his attitude when he beat Zarkareva at Listowel - and whilst that one should in theory, reverse the form at todays revised weights, she won’t appreciate soft ground.
With only 3 runs over fences, Defan also has plenty of scope for improvement…
There are lots of potential dangers, but I’m most fearful of Take All, and he warrants covering for the Matrix.
Limerick
I had planned to make Lifetime Ambition a Best bet in the 2:40 - but he was declared a NR, just after 9:00.
Arguably, he would have had his work cut out to beat Gabynako, based on their runs last time in the Drinmore.
However, I suspect we would have seen a much better effort from Lifetime Ambition today.
Alas, we’ll never know !
In his absence, this looks a 2 horse race.
I’d slightly prefer Gabynako to Farouk D’alene - but not sufficiently to consider getting involved.
No comments:
Post a Comment