ITV will be showing day 3 of the Leopardstown Christmas festival tomorrow - which is fair enough.
However, to fill the gaps between the big races, they are also showing a couple of races from both Leicester and Catterick.
Without wishing to be disrespectful, they are scraping the barrel a bit - particularly at Catterick, where they will be showing class 4 and class 5 races !
I think it unlikely that I’ll be suggesting bets in either…
I may find a bet or two from Leopardstown - tho on initial inspection, I wasn’t overly taken by the shape of the main races.
In fact, the feature race at Limerick maybe more likely to yield a bet, so I’ve previewed that as well, just in case…
Leopardstown
1:10
I suspect that this will be a race best watched rather than played in - with a view to the final of the series…
Ardhil jumps out a bit - assuming he actually gets a run !
He bolted up at Ascot, 10 days ago, having been backed off the boards.
He will run off a mark 13lb higher tomorrow - but that may not stop him.
He’s a very hard one to assess - but based on his run at Ascot, the market is likely to provide a good pointer (assuming he does run).
Coltor is interesting for Dermot weld.
He is rated 90 on the flat - suggesting that he should have a few pounds in hand of his hurdles mark of 127.
He should be fit form the flat - tho the step up to 3 miles, is a step into the unknown.
Duffle Coat represents Gordon Elliott and Davy Russell.
He was a very useful juvenile last season - and his 5 length defeat of Adagio at Cheltenham a year ago, reads very well.
He too is unproven over 3 miles - but was staying on nicely over that trip on his seasonal return at Navan.
At bigger prices, Winter Fog looks quite interesting on his debut for Emmet Mullins.
He’s another who I would expect to see backed, if connections fancy him.
Whilst Tout est Permis should run well, off a mark a pound lower than he ran off when third in the series final, a couple of seasons back.
1:45
The first of 2 grade 1s on the card - this looks likely to go to one of the pair, that head the betting…
The trouble is, that whilst Klassical Dream and Flooring Porter are both very talented animals on their day - neither one is particularly reliable…
Klassical Dream came out of the wilderness to bolt up in the stayers hurdle at last seasons Punchestown festival - and was backed to do so.
Prior to that run, he’d shown nothing for 2 years - but someone clearly knew that the fire was still burning.
If he can repeat that level of form tomorrow, he will probably win again - but it’s anyones guess as to whether he will…
Flooring Porter was a massive improver last season.
He took this race - and then the stayers championship at Cheltenham - before disappointing behind Klassical Dream at Punchestown.
He shouldn’t be judged solely on that run, which came at the end of a long season - but he also fell on his return at Navan, so now does have a few questions to answer.
The issue with him is that he’s a very headstrong horse, so the suspicion is that he will always be close to boiling over.
Away from the head of the market, there’s nothing that really stands out…
Abracadabras would be of interest, if he stays - but there is a doubt over that.
Whilst Ronald Pump would have been of interest, if he’d not run himself into the ground at Ascot, 10 days ago (but he did !).
If the ground is really soft, then I could see Sams Profile outrunning his odds - but whether he’ll be good enough to win, is a different matter…
2:20
It’s hard to look beyond A Plus Tard in this…
He won the corresponding race 12 months ago - before finishing runner up in the Cheltenham Gold cup.
However, he arguably surpassed both of those efforts when taking the Betfair chase on his reappearance at Haydock.
He really did look outrageously good that day - and it’s no surprise to see him installed an odds on fav for this.
If he’s in the same form tomorrow, he will take all the beating - but they are not machines and he did only get home by half a length in this race 12 months ago.
In fact, jumping the last, he looked to have no chance of reeling in Kemboy.
And whilst he did manage to, there was very little between the pair.
The belief is that A Plus Tard has improved since then - but he will need to have done…
Like Kemboy, Delta Work is another who is at his best around Leopardstown.
He won this race 2 years ago, before unseating in last years renewal.
In truth, he showed very little last season - and not a great deal more, on his return at Down Royal.
That is a concern - tho Gordon Elliott will doubtless have him spot on for tomorrow.
Galvin and Janidil are the 2 potential improvers in the line up.
The former lost little in defeat,when narrowly beaten by Frodon at Down Royal; whilst the latter ran a huge race when runner up to Allaho in the John Durkan and may well improve for a step up in trip tomorrow.
2:55
Galopin des Champs was a big improver over hurdles at the back end of last season - and assuming he takes to fences, will be very hard to beat in this.
Having won the Martin Pipe handicap hurdle at the Cheltenham festival, he stepped up to take the grade 1 novice hurdle at the Punchestown festival.
If he’s close to that level on his chasing debut, then it will take a smart one to beat him.
Fury Road sets the standard for the race, based on his last time out third in the grade 1 Drinmore chase.
He looked likely to win that day, on the run to the last - but his stamina gave out on him, close home.
He will be wearing first time cheek pieces tomorrow - but I can’t see that really helping (as they are likely to make him keener).
As a consequence, Blue Sari may prove to be Galopin Des Champs biggest rival.
His career seemed to be going nowhere, but he bounced back last time on his chasing debut, when running Farouk D’alene close.
If he can build on that, then he could easily give the favourite something to think about…
Limerick
2:40
This is quite a valuable handicap - and it doesn’t look a hugely competitive field…
Top weight Longhouse Poet, is the obvious start point.
He beat Run Wild Fred and The Big Dog, on his most recent start - tho that was just under a year ago - and the placed horses have subsequently franked the form in no uncertain terms.
Obviously there is a slight question mark over Longhouse Poets fitness - but if he’s ready to do himself justice, then he will be hard to beat.
Ten Ten has a big chance, based on his narrow defeat at Punchestown in the spring.
He threatened to win a big pot for most of last season - and was very unlucky not to do so, when just inched out by Brahma Bull.
However, he got a 4lb rating rise for that run - and will be making his seasonal debut tomorrow (so fitness has to be taken on trust).
Full Time Score has run only twice previously over fences, so is nearly impossible to assess.
He was impressive when winning on his chasing debut at Gowran in March - but then disappointed badly at Limerick a fortnight later.
He really could be anything…
Rebel Gold was still in with a chance when falling last time at Gowran.
Provided that’s left no ill effects, he should run well.
Whilst Espanito Bello is closely tied with Coko Beach on a couple of runs from last season - and that gives him every chance in a race like this.
Provided he has come on for his seasonal debut run over hurdles at Navan, then he’s another who could go close.
Leicester
The Leicester races really don’t warrant extensive previews (and they are better than the Catterick ones !).
I’m unfamiliar with many of the runners, and there isn’t time for me to work through the form and watch videos of all their recent runs.
As a consequence, I’ll limit myself to a few comments on each race…
2:45
It’s interesting that the ground is ‘good’ on the chase course at Leicester - but ‘heavy’ on the hurdle course !
Kilbrook strikes me as just about the most likely race winner, on the back of a successful chasing debut at Carlisle.
He was raised 4lb for that win - but could well be capable of further improvement.
Ahead of the Field is the most obvious alternative: tho the ex. French Red Happy, could be anything (and has been subject to early support)
3:20
Lebowski is the obvious one on his handicap debut, following 2 wins in novice races.
An opening mark of 127 doesn’t look overly harsh - though it remains to be seen how he will cope with very heavy ground.
Jante Law is similarly unexposed - but also unproven on heavy.
Natural History has become a very disappointing animal.
He really should be capable of winning a race such as this, off his current mark - but that’s been the case on his last 2 runs (and he’s shown very little on both).
McGowans Pass is the solid option.
He will have no issue with the heavy ground - and should improve for his seasonal debut at Haydock.
He looks almost certain to run his race - but is vulnerable to an improver (such as Lebowski or Jante Law)
Catterick
1:25
Whilst this isn’t a bad race for a class 5 contest, it’s not one that I’ll be prepared to suggest bets in (I can only imagine how fragile the early market will be !)
Representing Bob looks the right favourite.
He’s unbeaten in 2 chase starts - and also ran well last time, when runner up over hurdles.
His mark is edging up - but he started off in the basement - and as he’s still only 5, he remains open to plenty of improvement.
Of the more exposed runners, then No Cruise Yet looks the best.
He would have gone close on his penultimate outing, if he’d not fallen - but made amends last time, when winning at Sedgefield.
He’s 6lb higher tomorrow, but appears to be on an upward curve, so may be capable of defying his new mark.
2:00
Findthetime is the obvious one, stepping into handicap company off a fair looking mark. However, he has been well found in the early market…
Happy and Fine is of more interest, at a price.
He ran well on his UK debut in November, before disappointing last time, when pitched into handicap company.
However, that was probably a stronger race than tomorrows - whilst he may also benefit from being stepped up in trip.
Clearly, he comes with risks - but they are factored into the early price.
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