Tomorrows racing is a little unusual…
There are 4 NH meetings - at Punchestown, Cork, Huntingdon & Kelso - and each hosts a big race - but not much more…
That’s maybe a little harsh - particularly in Ireland, where some good horses will be running.
However, it is true that there are only 4 Big races on the day (in which I could possibly suggest bets).
Still, such is life - at least it means I won’t be stretched too thin !
I’ve previewed all 4 - and if I can find any bets tomorrow morning, I’ll issue them at 10:00 (or advise that there won’t be any !).
Punchestown
2:00
The grade 1 John Durkan chase is the main race of the day - but it’s a slightly bizarre one…
Willie Mullins is responsible for 7 of the 10 runners - and all of them will be making their seasonal debuts.
He’s clearly using the race as a pipe opener for some of them - maybe all of them !
Henry de Bromhead is responsible for 2 of the other runners - but he also looks to be using this race as a pipe opener for Grand National winner, Minella Times.
And so there were 2…
Envoi Allen and Fakir D‘oudaries appear the pair to concentrate on - even if they are first and second favourite !
Envoi Allen had looked as if he was going to be the second coming - until he fell in the Marsh chase at Cheltenham - and then went lame at Punchestown.
However, he was impressive enough on his seasonal return at Down Royal in October - though that was a relatively weak contest.
This could be much stronger - even if only Fakir D’oudaries runs his race !
He was an impressive winner of the grade 1 Melling chase at Aintree in the spring - and although he was subsequently beaten at the Punchestown festival over 3 miles, he comfortably won the Clonmel Oil chase, back over 2m4f on his return.
Both of the market leaders should be spot on for this race - so even if the Mullins battalions are a little off the pace, it should still be a good race.
Ofcourse, there is a chance that Willie will have one or two of his ready to go.
Allaho is the most obvious one.
He arguably put up the performance of last season, when destroying Fakir D’oudairies in the Ryanair.
He was beaten by Chacun Pour Soi at Punchestown - but lost little, over a trip short of his best.
If he is at his peak tomorrow, then he’ll be the one to beat - but the suspicion is that’ll he be around 90% fit…
Of the other Mullins runners, then Asterion Collonges and Melon both could be interesting - if they are ready.
They will both be running over their optimum trip - whilst Asterion still has plenty of scope for improvement.
However, it’s always hard when you have to guess on fitness - and that’s definitely the case in this race…
Cork
2:20
According to the betting, Energumene is a certainty for this - but I’m not quite so sure…
There can be no crabbing what he achieved as a novice last season.
He was unbeaten in 4 races - and very impressive in all of them.
However, he will be taking his first step into open company tomorrow - and will also have to give weight to some decent rivals.
If he’s not close to his best, then he will struggle to do that - and I certainly wouldn’t entertain a price of 1/3…
Notebook is his most solid opponent.
He’s a good horse - and whilst he’s not quite top class, anything that beats him, needs to be !
He will be race fit, following his defeat of Samcro at Navan last month. Energumene will have no easy job conceding him 2lb…
Cash Back, Daly Tiger and Sizing Pottsie are all potentially good horses - but will all be having their first runs of the season.
Cash Back would probably interest me most - if it weren’t for the fact that he’s trained by Willie Mullins - the same as Energumene !
He’s often threatened to be a really good horse - but his jumping keeps on letting him down.
His has form that ties him in closely with Notebook - so in receipt of 4lb from that one, he could definitely be a danger.
Daly Tiger won a good handicap on his return last season - so he can clearly go well fresh.
He probably lacks a bit of class - but is still young, so has scope for improvement.
It’s a similar story with Sizing Pottsie - though he is more likely to benefit from the run.
Darasso is race fit - but that’s about all he has in his favour !
If he can pick up some place prize money, then I’m sure connections will be happy…
Huntingdon
1:52
Allmankind is likely to take a bit of beating in this…
He produced a huge effort last time, to win the Old Roan chase under top weight - and I suspect that he’s been targeted at this race since then.
And in fairness, it does look the perfect race for him - 2m4f on a flat course, on good ground.
He’s the highest rated horse in the race - and he’s the most likely winner…
If the ground were a bit softer, then I might fancy Master Tommytucker to upset him.
A flat, right-handed track, is exactly what he needs - and he would be just as happy on soft ground.
He’ll cope with good - but maybe not as well as Allmankind…
Where he won’t help Allmankind, is with the pace in the race.
Allmankind likes to front run - but Master Tommytucker almost insists on it !
I suspect that Allmankind will be happy to take a lead - but if he’s not, then things could get interesting for the other runners…
Eldorado Allen is the one most likely to take advantage if their is a pace battle.
He finished strongly to win the Haldon Gold cup on his seasonal debut - and could improve again for a further step up in trip.
He has a few pounds to find with the market principals on official ratings - but he could be capable of doing just that…
Funambule Sivola was a big improver last season - and as he’s still only 6, may well be capable of improving further this season.
I’d expect him to come on for his first run of the season - but if Venetia has got him spot on, he could go close…
On official ratings, First Flow has a definite chance, stepping up in tip.
However, I’d expect him to improve for his first run of the season - whilst his best form has generally come on softer ground.
Kelso
1:03
Of the 4 big races on the day, this is the only handicap.
In theory, it should be the most competitive - but it does have a very strong favourite…
Gordon Elliott has brought over Weststreet, on his third run for the stable.
Formerly trained in the UK by Oliver Sherwood, he switched into the care of Elliott, over the summer.
He ran a nice enough race over hurdles on his stable debut at Limerick in early October - but then surpassed that, when runner up to Mindsmadeup on his return to fences, a couple of weeks later.
It does look as if Elliott has rekindled the flame - and if that is the case, then Weststreet is well handicapped, based on his old form.
He should have no issue with the marathon trip - and off his featherweight, definitely looks the one to beat…
Dino Boy won the race 12 months ago - and has a chance of following up tomorrow.
He was possibly a little fortunate to collect last year - and will be 9lb higher in the ratings tomorrow.
However, he is still only 8 - and clearly tomorrows test suits him well.
Geronimo could be interesting, provided he’s come on for his hurdle run of last month.
He missed all of last season - but he had looked good horse, prior to that.
He had been competitive in a number of decent races - and this is a race that Sandy Thompson tends to target (Kelso is his local track).
Amateur ran well on his seasonal return at Haydock, a fortnight ago - and has a chance if he has progressed from that; whilst Do not Disturb is a progressive young horse, who has already won 4 times at Kelso…
Childwell has only won once at Kelso - but he has run really well at the course on a couple of other occasions.
He finished sixth in the Scottish national in April - and runs off a mark 6lb lower tomorrow.
He should be better for his seasonal return at Carlisle, and he’s another who could run a very big race.
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