Best bets
Cheltenham
1:15
Bun Doran 0.5pt win 8/1
1:50
Deyrann de Carjac 0.5pt win 25/1
1:15
Bun Doran 0.5pt win 8/1
1:50
Deyrann de Carjac 0.5pt win 25/1
3:00
Heaven Help Us 0.5pt win 10/1
Doncaster
3:15
Kauto Riko 1pt win 4/1
3:15
Kauto Riko 1pt win 4/1
Matrix bets
Cheltenham
1:15
Cheddleton 1 unit win CEP 6.6 FP 7
Frero Banbou 2 units win CEP 4.8 FP 4.5
Doncaster
2:05
Natural History 2 units win CEP 9.4 FP 9
Cheltenham
1:15
Cheddleton 1 unit win CEP 6.6 FP 7
Frero Banbou 2 units win CEP 4.8 FP 4.5
Doncaster
2:05
Natural History 2 units win CEP 9.4 FP 9
It was good to see some strong fields assembled for todays
racing.
It’s been a long time coming, but the cards are finally starting to look more like I’d expect.
That said, when I first looked at the Cheltenham card, I struggled to see many good bets - though at Doncaster, I thought I could see quite a few !
But then I looked a bit harder - and the markets stabilised - and things switched round...
I’ve ended up with 4 Best bets on the day - 3 at Cheltenham and 1 at Doncaster.
There are also a few for the Matrix (not as many as normal - but that's because there are more Best bets).
Here’s some detail on the thinking…
Cheltenham
I do like the look of the 1:15 race…
I’m happy to oppose both Editeur de Gite and Amoola Gold, on the back of recent big performances - they can only go to the well, so often…
Frero Banbou is the obvious one - and he is worth saving stakes on: as is Cheddleton.
I don’t think conditions will be quite right for the latter - but he has a lot of natural ability and that makes him dangerous.
However, I’m pretty keen on Bun Doran.
He’s handicapped to bolt up - and ran well enough on his seasonal return.
If the fire still burns bright (and I’m optimistic it does), then he simply has to go very close (and could easily win !)
The Racing Post Gold cup (1:50) should be the perfect race for a full Matrix - but I’m not convinced…
Half of the 14 runners are priced up at 10 or less on BF - which shows just how open it is.
It’s like the cross country chase yesterday, in so much as you could argue a case for any of them - but in reality, it will come down to which one gets luck IR etc.
Beakstown is the market leader I’d be most interested in, as he appears to have been targeted at the race (or at least, not targeted at a different race !).
However, the bet simply has to be Deyrann de Carjac.
A case can be made for him on Paddy Power form - but it’s his historical form that makes him a ‘must’ bet.
He clashed with Midnight Shadow over todays course and distance, just under 2 years ago.
The pair ran off level weights that day - and Midnight Shadow came out 2 lengths ahead. However, Deyrann de Carjac is 22lb better off today.
He also had a much easier race in the Paddy Power (which will hopefully have brought him on).
At 25/1, he has to be a bet (and a very good one !)
The 2:25 makes no appeal as a betting medium.
Barony Legends may be worth a small risk, if you can get a big enough price (target 8/1) - but it’s guesswork.
Blazing Kahl is the most likely winner - but the betting tells you that…
I do like Heaven Help Us in the 3:00.
Initially I thought it an odd race to run her in - and it is - but that simply adds to her appeal..!
The fact she is being brought over to contest the race, speaks volumes (her trainer only has 2 horses !).
She’s clearly been targeted at the race - and has already won twice at Cheltenham (so loves the course).
Dropping back to 2 miles seems a strange move - but she blitzed her rivals in last seasons Coral cup and doesn’t lack 2 mile pace.
The real killer with her, is that she’s likely to get an uncontested lead.
All of her rivals tend to patiently ridden - and I’m sure they will be happy to let her force things (assuming they’ll be able to outspeed her close home).
However, if they do that, then I think it will be a mistake !
If she’s 10 lengths clear at the top of the hill, I’ll be surprised if they can reel her back.
To say I’m excited about this one, is an under-statement !
I can’t see an angle into the 3:35.
I think I like Martello Sky best - though I’m not completely sure !
Wynn House is an alternative - but the pair of them head the market.
Furthermore, if Indefatigable bounces back, she could well outclass them all.
Half cases can be made for most of the outsiders, so it has to be a watching race…
Doncaster
I briefly considered making Natural History a Best bet in the 2:05 - but he doesn’t quite warrant it.
It’s easy enough to make a case for him (primarily on flat form) - and his price is quite acceptable (8/1+) - but he is risky…
As a consequence, I’ll just cover him with the Matrix - and have a couple of units on.
In terms of the most likely race winner: then I’d opt for Sonigino - assuming he copes with the relatively quick ground.
The defection of Magistrato from the 2:40, is a blow, as he’s one I would have been happy to take on.
Impulsive One makes the most appeal - but it’s marginal.
He should beat Knight Salute - however, Porticello and Too Friendly, are both big dangers.
In truth, it’s a hard race to get a handle on (even if it is an interesting one) - so I’m happy to just watch…
Provided he stays (and jumps round OK !) then Kauto Riko should win the 3:15.
He will be making his seasonal debut - and whilst that would be a concern for many, it’s not for him…
He’s won twice (arguably 3 times) on his seasonal return - and has also put in 2 other massive efforts, first time out.
He’s also well handicapped (much more so that most of his rivals) - so has a lot going for him…
What’s not so good, is his price !
He opened at 8/1 last night - and I hoped I’d get 5/1 this morning.
However, he was 9/2 in a weak market at 9:00 - and is 4/1 now.
I’m not sure where I’d draw the line - but there are only 7 runners - and I make him the most likely winner - so around 3/1.
You should all be able to beat that !
It’s been a long time coming, but the cards are finally starting to look more like I’d expect.
That said, when I first looked at the Cheltenham card, I struggled to see many good bets - though at Doncaster, I thought I could see quite a few !
But then I looked a bit harder - and the markets stabilised - and things switched round...
I’ve ended up with 4 Best bets on the day - 3 at Cheltenham and 1 at Doncaster.
There are also a few for the Matrix (not as many as normal - but that's because there are more Best bets).
Here’s some detail on the thinking…
Cheltenham
I do like the look of the 1:15 race…
I’m happy to oppose both Editeur de Gite and Amoola Gold, on the back of recent big performances - they can only go to the well, so often…
Frero Banbou is the obvious one - and he is worth saving stakes on: as is Cheddleton.
I don’t think conditions will be quite right for the latter - but he has a lot of natural ability and that makes him dangerous.
However, I’m pretty keen on Bun Doran.
He’s handicapped to bolt up - and ran well enough on his seasonal return.
If the fire still burns bright (and I’m optimistic it does), then he simply has to go very close (and could easily win !)
The Racing Post Gold cup (1:50) should be the perfect race for a full Matrix - but I’m not convinced…
Half of the 14 runners are priced up at 10 or less on BF - which shows just how open it is.
It’s like the cross country chase yesterday, in so much as you could argue a case for any of them - but in reality, it will come down to which one gets luck IR etc.
Beakstown is the market leader I’d be most interested in, as he appears to have been targeted at the race (or at least, not targeted at a different race !).
However, the bet simply has to be Deyrann de Carjac.
A case can be made for him on Paddy Power form - but it’s his historical form that makes him a ‘must’ bet.
He clashed with Midnight Shadow over todays course and distance, just under 2 years ago.
The pair ran off level weights that day - and Midnight Shadow came out 2 lengths ahead. However, Deyrann de Carjac is 22lb better off today.
He also had a much easier race in the Paddy Power (which will hopefully have brought him on).
At 25/1, he has to be a bet (and a very good one !)
The 2:25 makes no appeal as a betting medium.
Barony Legends may be worth a small risk, if you can get a big enough price (target 8/1) - but it’s guesswork.
Blazing Kahl is the most likely winner - but the betting tells you that…
I do like Heaven Help Us in the 3:00.
Initially I thought it an odd race to run her in - and it is - but that simply adds to her appeal..!
The fact she is being brought over to contest the race, speaks volumes (her trainer only has 2 horses !).
She’s clearly been targeted at the race - and has already won twice at Cheltenham (so loves the course).
Dropping back to 2 miles seems a strange move - but she blitzed her rivals in last seasons Coral cup and doesn’t lack 2 mile pace.
The real killer with her, is that she’s likely to get an uncontested lead.
All of her rivals tend to patiently ridden - and I’m sure they will be happy to let her force things (assuming they’ll be able to outspeed her close home).
However, if they do that, then I think it will be a mistake !
If she’s 10 lengths clear at the top of the hill, I’ll be surprised if they can reel her back.
To say I’m excited about this one, is an under-statement !
I can’t see an angle into the 3:35.
I think I like Martello Sky best - though I’m not completely sure !
Wynn House is an alternative - but the pair of them head the market.
Furthermore, if Indefatigable bounces back, she could well outclass them all.
Half cases can be made for most of the outsiders, so it has to be a watching race…
Doncaster
I briefly considered making Natural History a Best bet in the 2:05 - but he doesn’t quite warrant it.
It’s easy enough to make a case for him (primarily on flat form) - and his price is quite acceptable (8/1+) - but he is risky…
As a consequence, I’ll just cover him with the Matrix - and have a couple of units on.
In terms of the most likely race winner: then I’d opt for Sonigino - assuming he copes with the relatively quick ground.
The defection of Magistrato from the 2:40, is a blow, as he’s one I would have been happy to take on.
Impulsive One makes the most appeal - but it’s marginal.
He should beat Knight Salute - however, Porticello and Too Friendly, are both big dangers.
In truth, it’s a hard race to get a handle on (even if it is an interesting one) - so I’m happy to just watch…
Provided he stays (and jumps round OK !) then Kauto Riko should win the 3:15.
He will be making his seasonal debut - and whilst that would be a concern for many, it’s not for him…
He’s won twice (arguably 3 times) on his seasonal return - and has also put in 2 other massive efforts, first time out.
He’s also well handicapped (much more so that most of his rivals) - so has a lot going for him…
What’s not so good, is his price !
He opened at 8/1 last night - and I hoped I’d get 5/1 this morning.
However, he was 9/2 in a weak market at 9:00 - and is 4/1 now.
I’m not sure where I’d draw the line - but there are only 7 runners - and I make him the most likely winner - so around 3/1.
You should all be able to beat that !
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