Best bets
Cheltenham12:40
Barbados Buck's 0.5pt win 5/1
1:50
Precious Eleanor 0.5pt win 8/1
Matrix bets
Cheltenham
12:05
Jpr One 3 units win CEP 4.3 FP 4.5
12:40
J’ai Froid 2 units win CEP 13 FP 11
1:15
Mengli Khan 1 unit win CEP 50 FP 34
1:50
Rose of Arcadia 2 units win CEP 4.6 FP 5
Dame du Soi 1 unit win CEP 19 FP 15
2:25
Commodore 3 units win CEP 6.8 FP 7
Cheltenham
12:05
Jpr One 3 units win CEP 4.3 FP 4.5
12:40
J’ai Froid 2 units win CEP 13 FP 11
1:15
Mengli Khan 1 unit win CEP 50 FP 34
1:50
Rose of Arcadia 2 units win CEP 4.6 FP 5
Dame du Soi 1 unit win CEP 19 FP 15
2:25
Commodore 3 units win CEP 6.8 FP 7
With 6 competitive handicaps, I was optimistic that I’d be
able to find a few good bets today - but that’s not quite how it’s worked
out…
In fairness, I’ve got fancies in most of the races - but the prices aren’t there to justify getting heavily involved.
The prices were there for some of them early - but they didn’t last long.
Whilst for others, they were never there..!
As a consequence, there are just 2 Best bets on the day.
However, I’ve also put most of my other fancies in the Matrix. You should try and get the FPs on them (or better !) - I would expect most of them to drift a little, prior to the off…
Here’s the detailed thinking…
Cheltenham
In the opener (12:05), I like Jpr One best - the question is, what’s a fair price..?
I reckon all 5 runners have some kind of a chance - but there is plenty of guesswork involved.
The favourite is strong in the betting - and given his connections, that’s a concern (as he could be very good).
I think Jpr One is worth covering on the Matrix - with a target price of 4.5.
I struggled to choose between Barbados Buck’s and J’ai Froid in the 12:40.
I like the form of J’ai Froid best - but I’m unsure about his trainer in a Cheltenham handicap - whilst he’s also not a horse that I can particularly take to, visually !
Barbados Buck’s has the potential - but he will need to step up on what he’s achieved so far.
However, he’s trained by Paul Nichols - and I’m hopeful that the first time blinkers will bring about significant improvement.
If they do, he should take a lot of beating - and I make him the best bet.
However, I have to cover J’ai Froid on the Matrix, in case Barbados doesn’t improve for the head gear.
I'm struggling to settle on one in the 1:15…
I was initially drawn to Punxutawney Phil - but I’m not completely convinced and his price has gone this morning (9/1 into 5/1).
Instinctively, I want to take on Broomfield Burg - but he has now drifted to an almost acceptable price !
Quinto do Mar clearly has a chance - but is now fav; whilst Lively Citizen is the solid option - but more of an EW play.
Mengli Khan is hugely risky - but he is potentially very well handicapped if back anywhere near his best.
At around 50/1, his is worth a minimum play for the Matrix.
I liked Rose of Arcadia best in the 1:50 - but so did everyone else !
Apparently she was 7/1 on the opening show - tho she was 9/2 by the time I saw.
I would have been happy with that - but she had shortened to 5/2 by the time I went to bed - and that’s too short.
I’m sure she’ll drift - but that’s no good when you are tipping early !
There is little between Fontaine Collonges and Precious Eleanor on their recent Warwick run - so at 5/2 and 8/1, I have to side with the latter.
I’ll save on Rose of Arcadia for the Matrix - and also Dame du Soir.
There’s a question mark over the trip with her - but at 16/1+, she is worth a small risk…
Commodore was 6/1 last night in the 2:25 - and I would have taken a risk at that price.
However, he was 4/1 this morning - and with uncertainty over the ground, that’s too short.
He’s on the drift now - and is back out to 6/1 on the exchanges.
Whether he’ll reach that price with the bookmakers, remains to be seen.
The only way I feel I can handle him, is via the Matrix - with a target price of 6/1.
The cross country race (3:00) looks nearly impossible to solve…
I like Plan of Attack best - but there are 4 or 5, for whom similar cases can be made.
Again, it simply comes down to price.
I think he should be 5/1 - so anything above that, would be ‘value’.
I would certainly be interested if he reached 6/1 - but he is currently a 9/2 shot and I just can’t see him drifting that far…
I can’t see an angle into the finale (3:35)..
If Sporting John runs to form, he should win - however, he’s not guaranteed to run to form !
If he doesn’t, then Onagatheringstorm is the solid option - but is priced accordingly…
None of the bigger priced ones make much appeal.
I could make half cases for most of them - but there would be too much speculation involved to warrant suggesting any as bets.
In fairness, I’ve got fancies in most of the races - but the prices aren’t there to justify getting heavily involved.
The prices were there for some of them early - but they didn’t last long.
Whilst for others, they were never there..!
As a consequence, there are just 2 Best bets on the day.
However, I’ve also put most of my other fancies in the Matrix. You should try and get the FPs on them (or better !) - I would expect most of them to drift a little, prior to the off…
Here’s the detailed thinking…
Cheltenham
In the opener (12:05), I like Jpr One best - the question is, what’s a fair price..?
I reckon all 5 runners have some kind of a chance - but there is plenty of guesswork involved.
The favourite is strong in the betting - and given his connections, that’s a concern (as he could be very good).
I think Jpr One is worth covering on the Matrix - with a target price of 4.5.
I struggled to choose between Barbados Buck’s and J’ai Froid in the 12:40.
I like the form of J’ai Froid best - but I’m unsure about his trainer in a Cheltenham handicap - whilst he’s also not a horse that I can particularly take to, visually !
Barbados Buck’s has the potential - but he will need to step up on what he’s achieved so far.
However, he’s trained by Paul Nichols - and I’m hopeful that the first time blinkers will bring about significant improvement.
If they do, he should take a lot of beating - and I make him the best bet.
However, I have to cover J’ai Froid on the Matrix, in case Barbados doesn’t improve for the head gear.
I'm struggling to settle on one in the 1:15…
I was initially drawn to Punxutawney Phil - but I’m not completely convinced and his price has gone this morning (9/1 into 5/1).
Instinctively, I want to take on Broomfield Burg - but he has now drifted to an almost acceptable price !
Quinto do Mar clearly has a chance - but is now fav; whilst Lively Citizen is the solid option - but more of an EW play.
Mengli Khan is hugely risky - but he is potentially very well handicapped if back anywhere near his best.
At around 50/1, his is worth a minimum play for the Matrix.
I liked Rose of Arcadia best in the 1:50 - but so did everyone else !
Apparently she was 7/1 on the opening show - tho she was 9/2 by the time I saw.
I would have been happy with that - but she had shortened to 5/2 by the time I went to bed - and that’s too short.
I’m sure she’ll drift - but that’s no good when you are tipping early !
There is little between Fontaine Collonges and Precious Eleanor on their recent Warwick run - so at 5/2 and 8/1, I have to side with the latter.
I’ll save on Rose of Arcadia for the Matrix - and also Dame du Soir.
There’s a question mark over the trip with her - but at 16/1+, she is worth a small risk…
Commodore was 6/1 last night in the 2:25 - and I would have taken a risk at that price.
However, he was 4/1 this morning - and with uncertainty over the ground, that’s too short.
He’s on the drift now - and is back out to 6/1 on the exchanges.
Whether he’ll reach that price with the bookmakers, remains to be seen.
The only way I feel I can handle him, is via the Matrix - with a target price of 6/1.
The cross country race (3:00) looks nearly impossible to solve…
I like Plan of Attack best - but there are 4 or 5, for whom similar cases can be made.
Again, it simply comes down to price.
I think he should be 5/1 - so anything above that, would be ‘value’.
I would certainly be interested if he reached 6/1 - but he is currently a 9/2 shot and I just can’t see him drifting that far…
I can’t see an angle into the finale (3:35)..
If Sporting John runs to form, he should win - however, he’s not guaranteed to run to form !
If he doesn’t, then Onagatheringstorm is the solid option - but is priced accordingly…
None of the bigger priced ones make much appeal.
I could make half cases for most of them - but there would be too much speculation involved to warrant suggesting any as bets.
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