Ascot and Haydock host the main meetings tomorrow - with Newcastle and Navan, providing support.
They raced at Ascot this afternoon - and the ground looked just on the soft side of good (which is as it was described).With no rain forecast, I’m expecting the same tomorrow…
I expect it to be much tougher going at Haydock, where the ground is described as somewhere between soft and heavy (with the chase course likely to ride the slower).
There are some decent races at both courses - and I don’t know why ITV are only showing 6 of them.
I’m sure they could have squeezed in another one or two from Haydock…
With televised opportunities limited, I may well cast the net a little wider - and look at some of the supporting races for bets.
However, I’ll just preview the main 6 races this evening.
If I do find any bets from the other races, I’ll explain the thinking in the bet/staking rationale email tomorrow…
Ascot
1:50
This race is run over the slightly unusual distance of 2m3f.
So a bit of a stretch fora 2 miler - but maybe not far enough for a 2 and a half miler !
Palmers Hill is the early favourite, on the back of a seasonal debut win at Wetherby.
He won that race well enough - and a 4lb rating rise isn’t overly harsh.
Furthermore, he has always been considered a good horse, so it’s no surprise to see him at the head of the market.
Whether Ascot will suit him as well as Wetherby, remains to be seen - as does his ability to jump cleanly in a more competitive race.
Guy ran well when finishing runner up in a similar race at the course, last month.
He’s been raised 3lb for that effort - but is still only 6 and his best days should still be ahead of him.
I’m not entirely convinced that he will be suited by a drop in trip - even if it is only a couple of furlongs.
That said, he couldn’t be dismissed from calculations…
Knight in Dubai ran a nice race at Aintree last time, on his comeback from 18 months off the course.
That race was over 2 miles - which is on the short side for him.
He steps up in trip tomorrow, to a much more suitable distance, and if he’s come on for that run (and not gone backwards), then he should be in the mix.
Sully Doc won over tomorrows course and distance, last October.
He beat Editeur du Gite that day - so the form looks very strong.
However, he has to run from a mark 19lb higher tomorrow.
He’s obviously improved in the interim - but whether he’s improved by 20lb, remains to be seen !
The other concern with him is that he’s not been declared in a tongue tie - or cheek pieces.
He’s worn the former on his last 10 starts - and the latter on his last 4 - so it’s a little odd…
Ornua is the final one worth a mention, on his second start for Georgie Howell.
Formerly trained by Henry de Bromhead - he’s only run once for his new stable, when unplaced over hurdles at Wetherby last month.
Presumably that was just to blow away the cobwebs - and he’s attractively handicapped, back over fences tomorrow, on a mark of 143.
Add into the mix that he could get an uncontested lead, and he certainly looks interesting…
2:25
It’s a great shame to see Buzz missing from the line up for the Long Walk…
Obviously I wish the horse well (he fractured a pelvis, earlier today) - but I was very keen to take him on.
Such is life.
With him out of the race, it doesn’t appear as easy to spot an angle…
Thyme Hill is justifiably favourite - having finished a narrow runner up in this race 12 months ago; and then winning the stayers hurdle at Aintree in the spring.
However, he didn’t do so well, when making his seasonal debut at Auteuil, last month
That seemed an odd race to run him in, first time out - and he disappointed.
It remains to be seen just how much the whole experience took out of him…
Ronald Pump is next in the betting - and he looks rock solid.
He finished runner up in the stayers hurdle at Cheltenham, a couple of seasons ago - and has run consistently well since then.
Those runs have included twice finishing runner up to Honeysuckle - and I doubt many of his rivals tomorrow, would be able to do that !
He ran particularly well last time, when chasing home the super mare in the Hattons grace hurdle at Fairyhouse.
On that form, he looks the one to beat.
Champ is the potential fly in the ointment, on his return to hurdling.
He’s a supremely talented horse - but has only run 4 times in the last 2 years.
However, he did manage to beat Minella Indo and Allaho on one of those occasions - so there can be no denying, he’s from the top drawer.
How he’ll cope with 3 miles over hurdles on his seasonal debut tomorrow, is anyones guess tho…
It’s a bit harder to make a case for the other 5 - assuming that Paisley Park is actually in decline (which does seem to be the case).
He won this race 12 months ago (when narrowly beating Thyme Hill) - but looked a shade fortunate to win that day - and his form has gone downhill since.
Various things have been tried - and he runs in a tongue tie for the first time, tomorrow. However, in all probability, he simply isn’t the horse he once was…
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the enigmatic Thomas Darby run well again - and he could easily get placed; whilst On the Blind Side can also be given a chance…
He finished runner up to Thomas Darby at Newbury last time - but was conceding weight and race fitness that day.
Off level weights and with that run under his belt, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him outrun his odds.
3:00
Belami des Pictons is the logical place to start in this, following his fine comeback run, when fourth to Snow Leopardess at Bangor.
That race is turning out to be quite hot - and it was Belamis first run in 600 days.
Despite that, he travelled really well to the home turn, before running out of steam.
It will all depend on whether he has come on for that run - or gone backwards.
If he’s come on, then he will take a lot of beating tomorrow - however, if he ‘bounces’ (after such a big effort on the back of a long break), he’s more likely to be pulled up…
Grand Sancy showed improved form last time, when stepped up to 2m6f.
He is stepped up in trip again tomorrow - and if that brings about similar improvement, he will go very close.
Certainly, from a handicapping perspective, he has a good chance - and as he’s still only 7, he may still be improving.
Caribean Boy and Annsam, are 2 others who are being stepped up in trip.
It’s hard to know whether either will improve for it - but if they do, then a case can be made for them both.
One thing’s for sure, with Cloth Cap in the field, it’s likely they will need to stay.
He ran really well last time in the Ladbroke Trophy - attempting to make all, but weakening out of things up the straight.
I’m sure he’ll go from the front again tomorrow - and will aim to exploit any stamina chinks in his rivals.
That will play into the hands of both Checkitout and Regal Encore.
They filled the places behind Larry in a similar race at the end of October.
Checkitout subsequently ran really well behind Snow Leopardess at Aintree - but that was just a fortnight ago, and the quick return is a worry.
Regal Encore has also run since, when well beaten at Warwick.
That’s less of a worry - and his course form, is outstanding.
The negative with him is that he will be 14 in a fortnights time - and few horses of that age, win races as competitive as this one…
3:35
This really is a ridiculously competitive race - and of the 14 runners, there are only 2 or 3, who I’d be inclined to leave out of calculations (and even then, I might be wrong !)
Coming up with a short list wouldn’t be easy - but it would have to include No Ordinary Joe.
He’s a novice - but ran a massive race, last time - on only his fourth run over hurdles - when third in the Greatwood.
I assume he’s been targeted at this race since then - and with that big race experience under his belt, off a mark just 3lb higher, he looks sure to go close.
In fact, I’d probably expect him to reverse the Greatwood form with the winner, West Cork.
He will be 7lb higher tomorrow - but more importantly, looked tuned to the minute that day.
I’ll be surprised if Dan Skelton manages to get much improvement out of him - in fact, he’s more likely to have gone backwards…
Tritonic also represents that form line - but as a 4 year old, I’d instinctively be against
him in a race of this nature.
Samarrive is also a 4 year old - though I might make an exception with him !
He bolted up last time at Sandown - and whilst he was given 11lb for his efforts, that didn’t appear overly harsh.
Of more concern, is the relatively quick turn around.
That race was only 14 days ago - and whilst he appeared to win it without taking much out of himself, looks can be deceptive…
Benson finished well behind Samarrive that day - and even on 13lb better terms, it would be quite hard fancying him to reverse the form.
However, Benson is an enigmatic sort - and the application of a visor is a very interesting move.
He arguably should have won this race 12 months ago - so off a 6lb lower mark tomorrow, should have every chance.
Ultimately I think it will come down to how he responds to the head gear (galvanised v sulks !).
Luttrell Lad would also feature on my short list - on his handicap debut.
It’s clear that Philips Hobbs considers him a good horse - and an opening mark of 135 looks fair.
It’s interesting that Pat Fahy brings over Pay the Ferryman.
He was a running on 7th in the Country hurdle in March, off exactly the same mark - and looks to have been targeted at this.
Whilst Mack the Man is the most interesting of those at really big prices.
He would have gone close in the Betfair hurdle at Newbury, a couple of seasons back - and runs tomorrow off the same mark.
Haydock
2:05
This looks quite a trappy race - but the right 3 horses have made their way to the head of the early market…
Mackelduff is the obvious favourite, following 2 big runs in handicaps this season.
He won the first of them, at Aintree, comfortably beating Pounding Poet.
The runner-up subsequently franked that form with a close second in a better race at the same track.
Mackelduff finished third on his most recent run this season - but that was in a hot handicap at Cheltenham.
I suspect that he will be well suited by tomorrows softer ground - and he sets a fair standard.
Stellar Magic is harder to assess - but could be very well handicapped.
He won his first 2 races last season - beating Alaphilippe in the second of them.
That one is now rated 141 - yet Stellar Magic runs off a mark of 133 tomorrow.
The worry with him is that he injured himself on his final run of last season - and tomorrow will be his first outing since then.
If he’s completely over the issue - and ready to do himself justice, then I suspect he will be hard to beat.
Up for Parol is the final one of major interest.
He ran really well to finished third in the grade 2 Persian War novice hurdle on his seasonal debut.
On the back of that, he was made a short priced favourite for a decent novice chase at Ffos Las - but he disappointed.
It’s interesting that he’s been immediately switched back to hurdles - and it’s hard to think that he’s not a bit better than an opening mark of 127.
Half cases can be made for a few of the others - but I’ll be a bit surprised if the race isn’t won by 1 of the 3 mentioned…
2:40
Remastered is clearly the one to beat in this.
He suffered a heavy fall last time out, in the Ladbroke Trophy when just about to take up the running.
It’s impossible to say whether he would have won that race - but he would have gone very close.
He races off the same mark tomorrow - so provided he’s fully recovered, he has to go very close, in what is a much weaker contest.
Away from him, the race isn’t easy to dissect…
Calipso Collonges probably sets the standard.
He won a lesser race on his most recent start - but has also been competitive off his current mark, in stronger races.
He looks sure to run well tomorrow - and would appear a good bet to place.
Whether he’ll be good enough to win however, remains to be seen.
Buzz de Turcoing is a potential improver.
He won very easily last time at Ayr, having previously run above expectations in a decent novice chase at Wetherby.
My only concern with him, is that he idled dreadfully last time - and he won’t want to be doing that tomorrow, against more resolute and talented opposition.
Enqard has a chance.
He ran a fair fourth over the course in February - and should appreciate tomorrows shorter trip.
He’s not shown much in his 2 starts since then - but there were excuses and he runs off a 4lb lower mark tomorrow.
Vintage Clouds should run well, in what will be ideal conditions.
The problem with him, is that he’s now 11 - and he’s still on a pretty high mark.
Acey Milan is the final one of interest.
He’s not badly handicapped - and has run well at Haydock in the past.
He should be better for a pipe-opener over hurdles - and will have no issue with the likely conditions.
2:05
This looks quite a trappy race - but the right 3 horses have made their way to the head of the early market…
Mackelduff is the obvious favourite, following 2 big runs in handicaps this season.
He won the first of them, at Aintree, comfortably beating Pounding Poet.
The runner-up subsequently franked that form with a close second in a better race at the same track.
Mackelduff finished third on his most recent run this season - but that was in a hot handicap at Cheltenham.
I suspect that he will be well suited by tomorrows softer ground - and he sets a fair standard.
Stellar Magic is harder to assess - but could be very well handicapped.
He won his first 2 races last season - beating Alaphilippe in the second of them.
That one is now rated 141 - yet Stellar Magic runs off a mark of 133 tomorrow.
The worry with him is that he injured himself on his final run of last season - and tomorrow will be his first outing since then.
If he’s completely over the issue - and ready to do himself justice, then I suspect he will be hard to beat.
Up for Parol is the final one of major interest.
He ran really well to finished third in the grade 2 Persian War novice hurdle on his seasonal debut.
On the back of that, he was made a short priced favourite for a decent novice chase at Ffos Las - but he disappointed.
It’s interesting that he’s been immediately switched back to hurdles - and it’s hard to think that he’s not a bit better than an opening mark of 127.
Half cases can be made for a few of the others - but I’ll be a bit surprised if the race isn’t won by 1 of the 3 mentioned…
2:40
Remastered is clearly the one to beat in this.
He suffered a heavy fall last time out, in the Ladbroke Trophy when just about to take up the running.
It’s impossible to say whether he would have won that race - but he would have gone very close.
He races off the same mark tomorrow - so provided he’s fully recovered, he has to go very close, in what is a much weaker contest.
Away from him, the race isn’t easy to dissect…
Calipso Collonges probably sets the standard.
He won a lesser race on his most recent start - but has also been competitive off his current mark, in stronger races.
He looks sure to run well tomorrow - and would appear a good bet to place.
Whether he’ll be good enough to win however, remains to be seen.
Buzz de Turcoing is a potential improver.
He won very easily last time at Ayr, having previously run above expectations in a decent novice chase at Wetherby.
My only concern with him, is that he idled dreadfully last time - and he won’t want to be doing that tomorrow, against more resolute and talented opposition.
Enqard has a chance.
He ran a fair fourth over the course in February - and should appreciate tomorrows shorter trip.
He’s not shown much in his 2 starts since then - but there were excuses and he runs off a 4lb lower mark tomorrow.
Vintage Clouds should run well, in what will be ideal conditions.
The problem with him, is that he’s now 11 - and he’s still on a pretty high mark.
Acey Milan is the final one of interest.
He’s not badly handicapped - and has run well at Haydock in the past.
He should be better for a pipe-opener over hurdles - and will have no issue with the likely conditions.
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