Whilst there will be 8 races shown on terrestrial TV tomorrow, 4 of them are small field contests with odds on favourites, which I very much doubt will yield any bets…
3 of the other 4 are decent handicaps - so that’s where the bulk of my attention will be focused - let’s hope I manage to find something of interest !If I do, then I’ll aim to issue at the usual time: 9:00 for Best bets - 10:30 for Matrix bets.
Here’s my thoughts on the televised races…
Ascot
1:45
Garry Clermont and Unexpected Party head the early betting for this - and I think that’s probably right.
The former has run 2 good races over the course this season - and is interesting, stepped up in trip.
If that move brings about some improvement, he should be in the mix.
That said, I prefer the chance of Unexpected Party.
He should have won his most recent start at Wetherby - but a slow jump at the last, enabled The Brimming Water to pick his pocket.
He’s been raised 6lb for that run - adding insult to injury - but he’s a progressive horse and could well be capable of defying his new mark.
Stellar Magic ran well on his seasonal debut last time at Haydock, when runner up to Up for Parol.
He’s been raised 4lb for that effort - but is likely to be sharper tomorrow.
He’s still relatively unexposed, so has also got scope for further improvement.
Fils Doudaries makes his debut for Nicky Henderson (having previously been in the care of Joseph O’Brien), and seems to have been given a workable mark.
That said, I would expect the market to know far more about his chance, than we can…
Kateson finished third in this race 12 months ago - when running from an 8lb higher mark.
He’s not run badly since then - but he is now 9 and may be in slight decline.
He’s probably a good bet to place - even if one or two are likely to progress pass him…
Sonigino is certainly one who could progress.
He will be having only his third run for Paul Nichols - having shown definite promise on his debut at Haydock - before disappointing a little last time at Doncaster.
He’s been dropped 3lb for that run - whilst a step up in trip is an interesting move.
N’Golo is the most appealing of those at bigger prices.
He finished well behind Stellar Magic at Haydock last time - but that was his first run for Anne Duffield - and he will be 8lb better off with the runner up, tomorrow.
That should see them finish closer tomorrow - though whether it will enable N’Golo to reverse the form, only time will tell…
2:20
This is a tricky looking mares race, in which the top 3 in the betting are only separated by 2lb on official ratings.
Of the trio, I like Molly Ollys Wishes best…
She’s been a big improver over the past year, winning 4 of her last 6 starts.
She looked better than ever, when making a winning seasonal reappearance at Wetherby - and whilst she did disappoint a little last time, that was in a strong open race.
Harry Skelton will need to get her to settle tomorrow - but if he does, then I think she will take a lot of beating, back against her own sex…
Willie Mullins brings over My Sister Sarah, and she looks a big danger.
She hacked up in a mares race over 3 miles at Kempton on her penultimate start - before finishing unplaced last time, in a much stronger race at Leopardstown.
She looks sure to give Molly Ollys Wishes a good race.
As does Western Victory.
She will be making her debut for Emma Lavelle, having transferred from the stable of Declan Quealy.
She’s consistently shown herself to be a very useful mare in Ireland, over a variety of trips and on a variety of going.
She is likely to try and make all tomorrow - and if she gets into a rhythm up front, then her rivals could find her tough to pass.
Emmpressive Lady is the most interesting of the outsiders - even though she has a lot to find on official ratings.
She put up an improved effort when winning at Kempton last time - and it’s interesting that connections are prepared to risk a very workable handicap mark, in pursuit of black type…
2:55
This looks a strong handicap, with 5 of the 8 runners having won their most recent start.
Palmers Hill is one of the last time out winners, and he was impressive when taking a similar race at Ascots December meeting.
That was a career best effort - though he had often threatened a performance of that level.
The handicapper reacted with an 8lb rise - which was quite harsh - however, he has plenty of ability and may well be capable of defying his new mark.
Fanion D’estruval is another last time out winner.
He bolted up at Newbury, last month - and in doing so, also got himself an 8lb rating rise for his troubles !
Interestingly, Venetia has chosen to offset that rise, by booking 7lb claimer Lucy Turner.
She may not be value for the full 7lb, but she will certainly lessen the burden.
He’s undoubtedly the class horse in the race - and whilst he’ll have a lot of weight to carry, he’s earned it.
Killer Clown is yet another last time out winner.
He bounced back to form on his most recent start, when winning comfortably at Wincanton.
He ‘only’ got 7lb for his win - but it was in a weaker race.
He’s clearly in good form - but tomorrows race will be a much bigger ask for him.
Phoenix Way ran really well in a 3 mile race over the course on his most recent start - but it remains to be seen whether he will be as effective over half a mile shorter (he might - or he might not !).
Whilst Knight in Dubai also ran well at the course on his most recent start - when finishing third to Palmers Hill.
He will be 11lb better off with the winner for a 13 length beating, which should make it close between the pair.
That said, Knight in Dubai didn’t seem to stay the trip that day - so over a couple of furlongs further tomorrow, Harry Skelton will need to ride a canny race if he’s to reverse the form.
Golden Whiskey was quite an impressive winner of a decent race at Chepstow last time - and a 4lb rating rise looks relatively lenient.
That said, tomorrows race does look stronger - and he’s not the most consistent of performers…
3:35
I have to admit, that I was one of those people who didn’t expect the Shishkin v Energumene clash to materialise - at least, not this side of Cheltenham…
The pair are unbeaten in 11 chases between them and were due to meet in last seasons Arkle.
However Energumene missed that race - and it looked as if it would be this years festival before they finally got to face off - but no !
In terms of tomorrows race, then it’s hard to be adamant about which way it will go.
Energumene is likely to get the run of the race, from the front - but the ground will probably be quicker than ideal for him.
My guess is that he will lead into the straight - but that Shishkin will power past him, on the run to the final fence.
That said, I won’t be betting on it - it’s definitely a race to watch, rather than a race to bet in.
There’s also a slight chance that First Flow could trump them both.
He won the corresponding race 12 months ago, when relatively unfancied - and bounced back to form on his most recent start, when taking the Peterborough chase.
It’ll be a little surprising if he proves good enough to spoil the party tomorrow - but he sets a fair standard, and would be more than capable of picking up the pieces if the big 2 did happen to under-perform.
Haydock
1:25
It’ll be fascinating to see Jonbon running in this….
He’s a full brother to Douvan - and is now unbeaten in 3 starts under rules: a bumper and 2 novice hurdles.
He’s been impressive on each occasion - and is currently disputing favouritism for the Supreme hurdle with his stablemate Constitution Hill.
The early betting has him at just 2/5 for this - so is clearly expected to win.
However, the race is unlikely to be a cake walk for him…
He will have to give 5lb to some talented rivals - headed by the Harry Fry trained, Might I.
On his most recent start, he was sent off favourite to beat Constitution Hill.
He was brushed aside by that day - but there is a chance that we didn’t see the real Might I.
He’d previously looked very good when beating Thunder Rock at Newton Abbot - and that one has gone on and won his next 2 races.
Based on that form, Might I should provide a test for Jonbon.
Donny Boy and Lebowski are both unbeaten over hurdles - and whilst neither has the form in the book to trouble Jonbon, both are open to a deal of improvement.
Donny Boy in particular, could be anything - as he’s yet to taste defeat in 3 starts (over hurdles, in a bumper and a PTP).
All 3 of the other runners have plenty of potential - so whilst I would expect Jonbon to win, there’s also a fair chance that we will get a reasonable race.
2:00
It’s a sad reflection on the state of the 2 mile hurdling division, that Tommys Oscar - a horse rated 138 when he won over the course at the end of November - has been installed the 4/6 favourite for this.
And in fairness, it’s hard to argue with that price…
The horse has won twice subsequently, showing improved form on each occasion - and is now rated 156.
Whilst that shouldn’t be anywhere near the rating required to win a champion hurdle - the current paucity of decent hurdles, means that he’s right up there with the best of them (ignoring Honeysuckle).
He’s also rated at least 11lb superior to all of his rivals tomorrow - and 2 of them have to give him weight !
Realistically, Hunters Call is his only realistic danger - and he’s now 12 !
That said, he did put up a career best effort on his most recent start at Cheltenham last month - so clearly isn’t in decline.
He finished third to Guard your dream and Song for Someone in the International hurdle - and that’s decent form.
If he can repeat that tomorrow, then he should at least keep Tommys Oscar honest - even if the younger legs of the favourite, are likely to win the day.
Outside of the big 2, it’s a struggle to find anything.
There’s a chance that Global Citizen might get an uncontested lead - and if his recent wind op has had the desired effect, he could outrun his odds.
He won this race in 2019 - beating Silver Streak - and on that form would have every chance. However, his recent form has been much less inspiring !
2:35
Royal Pagaille is the obvious place to start in this.
He bolted up in the corresponding race 12 months ago - and whilst he will be 7lb higher tomorrow, it wouldn’t have stopped him from winning that day.
However, he faces tougher opposition tomorrow - and whilst he’s not been disgraced in his 2 subsequent starts, he’s not enhanced his reputation either.
In fairness, both were in grade 1 events - last seasons Gold cup and this seasons Betfair chase - so tomorrows race is a significant drop in class.
That said, he will have to give quite a lot of weight to a number of decent horses, so he will need to be at the top of his game, if he is to double up…
Empire of Steel looks his biggest danger.
He was travelling like the winner, when falling at the fourth last at Wetherby on his most recent start.
He’ll be running from 2lb out of the handicap tomorrow - but I doubt that will make much difference.
He still has plenty of scope for improvement - and even a rating of 143 (which is what he will have to run off), almost certainly under-estimates his ability.
Lord du Mesnil finished runner up in the Wetherby race - and will meet Empire of Steel on the same terms tomorrow.
He’s a bit of a Haydock specialist, having won 3 times from 4 starts at the track - and he’s likely to run a big race.
Remastered is another who should run well.
He finished runner up to Enqarde over course and distance in December - and will run off the same mark tomorrow.
He may be vulnerable from a win perspective - but it’s not hard to see him going close.
Half chances can be given to all of the other runners - but none of them really stand out and it’ll be a bit of a surprise if the race isn’t won by one of the market leaders...
Taunton
3:15
Yala Enki won this race 12 months ago - and in all probability he will win it again tomorrow…
He’s now 12 years old - but that didn’t stop him from winning his most recent start at Cheltenham.
In theory, the quick ground was against him that day - but he still made all and battled on strongly when challenged.
He will have to concede 4lb to his rivals tomorrow - but on official ratings, he is at least 9lb superior to them all.
I’ll be slightly surprised if he doesn’t get the job done…
The question is, what will follow him home…?
On official ratings, it should be Elegant Escape - however he has plenty to prove, having shown little on his 2 starts this season.
Ramses de Teille could be more of a threat - as he ran well last time, until his stamina gave out in the Welsh National.
He narrowly beat Yala Enki last season, when in receipt of 7lb - so on 3lb worse terms, a case could certainly be made for him.
1:25
It’ll be fascinating to see Jonbon running in this….
He’s a full brother to Douvan - and is now unbeaten in 3 starts under rules: a bumper and 2 novice hurdles.
He’s been impressive on each occasion - and is currently disputing favouritism for the Supreme hurdle with his stablemate Constitution Hill.
The early betting has him at just 2/5 for this - so is clearly expected to win.
However, the race is unlikely to be a cake walk for him…
He will have to give 5lb to some talented rivals - headed by the Harry Fry trained, Might I.
On his most recent start, he was sent off favourite to beat Constitution Hill.
He was brushed aside by that day - but there is a chance that we didn’t see the real Might I.
He’d previously looked very good when beating Thunder Rock at Newton Abbot - and that one has gone on and won his next 2 races.
Based on that form, Might I should provide a test for Jonbon.
Donny Boy and Lebowski are both unbeaten over hurdles - and whilst neither has the form in the book to trouble Jonbon, both are open to a deal of improvement.
Donny Boy in particular, could be anything - as he’s yet to taste defeat in 3 starts (over hurdles, in a bumper and a PTP).
All 3 of the other runners have plenty of potential - so whilst I would expect Jonbon to win, there’s also a fair chance that we will get a reasonable race.
2:00
It’s a sad reflection on the state of the 2 mile hurdling division, that Tommys Oscar - a horse rated 138 when he won over the course at the end of November - has been installed the 4/6 favourite for this.
And in fairness, it’s hard to argue with that price…
The horse has won twice subsequently, showing improved form on each occasion - and is now rated 156.
Whilst that shouldn’t be anywhere near the rating required to win a champion hurdle - the current paucity of decent hurdles, means that he’s right up there with the best of them (ignoring Honeysuckle).
He’s also rated at least 11lb superior to all of his rivals tomorrow - and 2 of them have to give him weight !
Realistically, Hunters Call is his only realistic danger - and he’s now 12 !
That said, he did put up a career best effort on his most recent start at Cheltenham last month - so clearly isn’t in decline.
He finished third to Guard your dream and Song for Someone in the International hurdle - and that’s decent form.
If he can repeat that tomorrow, then he should at least keep Tommys Oscar honest - even if the younger legs of the favourite, are likely to win the day.
Outside of the big 2, it’s a struggle to find anything.
There’s a chance that Global Citizen might get an uncontested lead - and if his recent wind op has had the desired effect, he could outrun his odds.
He won this race in 2019 - beating Silver Streak - and on that form would have every chance. However, his recent form has been much less inspiring !
2:35
Royal Pagaille is the obvious place to start in this.
He bolted up in the corresponding race 12 months ago - and whilst he will be 7lb higher tomorrow, it wouldn’t have stopped him from winning that day.
However, he faces tougher opposition tomorrow - and whilst he’s not been disgraced in his 2 subsequent starts, he’s not enhanced his reputation either.
In fairness, both were in grade 1 events - last seasons Gold cup and this seasons Betfair chase - so tomorrows race is a significant drop in class.
That said, he will have to give quite a lot of weight to a number of decent horses, so he will need to be at the top of his game, if he is to double up…
Empire of Steel looks his biggest danger.
He was travelling like the winner, when falling at the fourth last at Wetherby on his most recent start.
He’ll be running from 2lb out of the handicap tomorrow - but I doubt that will make much difference.
He still has plenty of scope for improvement - and even a rating of 143 (which is what he will have to run off), almost certainly under-estimates his ability.
Lord du Mesnil finished runner up in the Wetherby race - and will meet Empire of Steel on the same terms tomorrow.
He’s a bit of a Haydock specialist, having won 3 times from 4 starts at the track - and he’s likely to run a big race.
Remastered is another who should run well.
He finished runner up to Enqarde over course and distance in December - and will run off the same mark tomorrow.
He may be vulnerable from a win perspective - but it’s not hard to see him going close.
Half chances can be given to all of the other runners - but none of them really stand out and it’ll be a bit of a surprise if the race isn’t won by one of the market leaders...
Taunton
3:15
Yala Enki won this race 12 months ago - and in all probability he will win it again tomorrow…
He’s now 12 years old - but that didn’t stop him from winning his most recent start at Cheltenham.
In theory, the quick ground was against him that day - but he still made all and battled on strongly when challenged.
He will have to concede 4lb to his rivals tomorrow - but on official ratings, he is at least 9lb superior to them all.
I’ll be slightly surprised if he doesn’t get the job done…
The question is, what will follow him home…?
On official ratings, it should be Elegant Escape - however he has plenty to prove, having shown little on his 2 starts this season.
Ramses de Teille could be more of a threat - as he ran well last time, until his stamina gave out in the Welsh National.
He narrowly beat Yala Enki last season, when in receipt of 7lb - so on 3lb worse terms, a case could certainly be made for him.
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