Bets/Staking rationale

Best bets

Lingfield

3:35
Fado des Brosses 0.5pt win 10/1


Matrix Bets

Lingfield

3:35
Pemberley 1 unit win CEP 8 FP 8
Eclair Mag 1 unit win CEP 13 FP 11

I knew as soon as the final decs were released, that today was going to be a quite one - betting wise.

Though to be honest, that’s probably not a bad thing, as the final day of a long weekend…

Of the 7 races being shown on terrestrial TV, only 3 have got the right shape/horses for me to consider suggesting bets.
However, one of them has a significant NR - and the new market looks about right; whilst I just don’t feel as if I’ve correctly read one of the others…

So that left just the one race for me to focus on - the Surrey National.

In fairness, I do like the look of the race - my issue was simply deciding how best to tackle it.
I eventually decided on a best bet - supported by a couple for the Matrix.

Here’s a bit more detail on my thinking for all of the days races…


Lingfield

There is too much guesswork required to get involved with the 1:20 - officially speaking, at least…
I’ve no issue with Ballygrifincottage and Fameaftertheglory, heading the market - tho both look to have been priced up a bit short.
I’ve had a small bet on both Crossing Lines and Dom of Mary at big prices (20+) - tho officially speaking, it’s just a watching race...

I’m also inclined to just watch the 1:50.
It doesn’t help that Shakem up’arry still hasn’t been withdrawn (at 9:30) - so the prices aren’t accurate.
With him out of the race, I might be tempted by Il Ridoto at 4+ - and I suspect that will be achievable.
However, it’s not a strong suggestion, so again, officially speaking, this is just a watching race…

I’m a little surprised to see that Darver Star has been backed into favouritism for the 2:25.
He’s obviously got a good chance - but I would make Brewin’upastorm, the most likely race winner.
He would be of interest at 3+ - but officially speaking, it’s yet another watching race.

I was hoping to make Itchy Feet a Best bet in the 3:00 - but the price isn’t really there…
I was looking for 5/1 - but he’s a general 7/2 shot, 4/1 in a few places.
In truth, that’s probably about right: with Dashel Drasher looking the most likely
winner.
Master Tommytucker has drifted to a price which is theoretically value (10) - but I am struggling to see how the race might pan out favourably for him.
I’ll be keeping an eye on the betting - and if Itchy Feet drifts to 6, I’ll be getting involved.
However, officially speaking, I’m just watching…

The 3:35 is by far the most interesting race of the day, from a betting perspective.
I’m hopeful that Fado des Brosses will outclass his rivals - and at a double figure price he rates a decent bet.
He’s held in high regard by his stable - and looked good last season, when wining at Hereford.
He caught my eye on his seasonal return, in a better race at Haydock - and if that run has brought him on, I can see him going very close today.
It’s interesting that he’s Evan Williams only runner on the card - and I suspect he’s been targeted at this contest.
My only concern, is that he will have to carry a big weight in bad ground - so I think it’s worth covering a couple of his rivals via the Matrix, in case it proves too much for him.
There’s little between Go Whatever and Pemberley on their run in the Sussex National - so at the prices, I’ll side with Pemberley.
Eclair Mag also worries me a little - based on the way he was backed last time.
I would suggest that the 3 of them combined, have around a 5/2 chance of winning the race - so if you are backing them all, try to adjust your stakes to achieve those odds.


Thurles

I think there’s a chance that I’ve read the 2:40 wrongly.
I thought it was between Jeremys Flame and Minella Melody and I expected the market to reflect that - but it’s gone the other way !
I certainly don’t feel sufficiently confident in my view to take a stance on the race - so it’s another one that I’ll just be watching…

The 3:15 looks pretty straightforward, as Allaho should beat Fakir D’oudairies.
Ofcourse the markets knows that - and there is consequently no betting angle into the race.
That said, as we saw yesterday with Shishkin and Energumene, not all races require a bet to be enjoyed !