It’s Thystes chase day at Gowran Park tomorrow - ‘the race that stops a county’
It’s one of my favourite races of the season - helped no doubt, by the fact that I tipped 25/1 winner Jadanli, in 2013 (9 years ago !)I might struggle to find a 25/1 winner tomorrow - with the early market unlikely to help !
Looking on oddschecker, there is a 40% over-round on the race - and that’s to best prices.
Realistically, if you place a bet at current odds, you will need to beat the market by 50% in order to get a ‘fair’ price - which is crazy.
Furthermore, it may well be worse tomorrow morning !
In terms of ground conditions, then the official going description is ‘soft’.
The race is invariably run on heavy ground - but there has been so little recent rain, I can well believe that it’ll be quicker this year.
Precisely how much quicker, is the big question - as I suspect that will have a significant bearing on the outcome.
I’ve previewed the race below - along with the Galmoy hurdle (the other big race on the card).
if I can find any bets in the morning, then I’ll issue just after 10:00.
Gowran Park
2:05
Klassical Dream has been installed a very short priced favourite for the Galmoy hurdle, which is completely understandable.
He was a high class novice hurdler, 3 seasons ago - but lost his way the following season, in open company.
He’s a quirky character - and it did look as if his quirks had got the better of him - until he bounced back and took the stayers hurdle at last seasons Punchestwon festival.
That was his first run for nearly 18 months - but he showed all of his former brilliance - having been backed to do so.
He looked just as good on his return this season over the Christmas period, when holding off Flooring Porter at Leopardstown - and he is now a short priced favourite for this seasons stayers hurdle at the Cheltenham festival.
None of tomorrows rivals, can match that level of form - or even get particularly close to it.
So if he does put his best hoof forward, then he will almost certainly win - however, there is a chance that won’t happen.
The race is Klassical Dreams to win - but also his to lose…
If he does under-perform, then it’s not easy to figure out which one of his rivals is most likely to take advantage.
On official ratings, his stablemate, Mr Adjudicator, could be the one - but he has plenty of question marks over him (trip and current well-being, amongst them).
As a consequence, the Gordon Elliott trained Commander of Fleet is slightly more appealing - tho he disappointed last time, when well behind Klassical Dream at Leopardstown (tho in front of Mr Adjudicator).
Royal Kahala and Gentlemansgame are the other 2 of possible interest.
On official ratings, both have plenty to find - however, they are progressive young horses, who still have improvement in them.
Royal Kahala is probably the pick of the pair, stepped up in trip.
She was sent off favourite for the mares race at last seasons Cheltenham festival, but ran disappointingly.
However, she has bounced back this season, recording 2 personal bests.
She did particularly well last time, to run down Heaven help Us in the shadows of the post - and if she improves further tomorrow, then she could turn out to be the biggest danger to Klassical Dream
3:05
18 will go to post for the Thystes chase - and as is invariably the case in these races, Willie Mullins & Gordon Elliott are responsible for half the field (in fact, slightly more than half - as they will have 5 runners apiece).
As the pair have trained the last 4 winners between them (and Willie, has also trained a further 6 !), it makes sense to look at their contenders first…
Jockey bookings suggest that Franco de Port is Willies main hope; whilst Braeside and Coko Beach at the 2 to concentrate on, from the Elliott stable.
It’s not hard to see an argument for all 3…
Braeside is likely to improve for a slight step up in trip, following a good fourth in the Paddy Power chase at Leopardstown. He is clearly a horse on the improve, and whilst he could be fancied even more on very soft ground, he still looks to have a decent chance.
Coko Beach won the race 12 months ago - tho that was from a 9lb lower mark.
He might struggle to win off his current mark - but he’s a brilliant jumper and I’m sure Davy will look to maximise that.
Franco de Port is very interesting.
He’s unproven over 3 miles - but is a grade 1 winner over 2 miles, so has plenty of class.
He was a 16/1 shot on the opening show, yesterday - but is now around half that price - and that is probably a more accurate reflection of his chance.
Escaria Ten and Death Duty are 2 others trained by Elliott, who can be given chances - and on balance, he looks more likely than Willie, to collect the prize.
Ofcourse there’s a chance that both of them will come up short - and there are certainly a few interesting contenders, trained elsewhere…
Longhouse Poet for Martin Brassil and Diol Ker for Noel Meade, are both disputing early favouritism.
The former was a good class novice last season - and if his defeat of Run Wild Fred just over a year ago, can be taken literally, then he must have every chance.
However, he was a little disappointing on his seasonal return at Limerick and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him drift a little in the betting.
Diol Ker looks potentially very well handicapped, running off a mark of 135.
He finished runner up in last years Galmoy hurdle - and on the back of that, was rated 152, so he clearly has plenty of scope from his current chase mark.
He would probably prefer softer ground tomorrow - but stepped back up in trip, he might get away with it.
Eklat de Rire is yet another who would prefer softer ground.
He was sent off at just 3/1 for the Ladbroke Trophy, in the belief that he was a graded horse running in a handicap
However, he ran disappointingly - with connections blaming the ground.
He’s probably been targeted at this race since - and connections are running top weight, Chris’s Dream, which means that Eklat gets a nice racing weight.
What they can’t control however is the weather - and the ground might just scupper their plans…
Mister Fogpatches will have no issue if the ground is relatively quick - however, he’s probably not sufficiently well handicapped to win a race of this nature.
Foxy Jacks is possibly a little more interesting.
He won a decent race at the Punchestown festival - and looked to be coming back to form last time, when seventh in the Paddy Power chase.
He’s got a couple of lengths to make up on Braeside, based on that run - but will be 3lb better off at the weights, so has a definite chance of reversing the form.
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