It’s probably not helped by the time of year, but tomorrows racing does feel a little uninspiring…
ITV will be showing 9 races, from Warwick and Kempton - but only a couple of them are ‘proper’ Saturday races.
The other 7 have drawn a maximum of 8 runners each...
Still, it is as it is.
As I said in the ‘plans for the weekend’ email, I would expect things to improve from next weekend onwards.
On the plus side, at least the weather is stable, so there’s minimal guesswork required on the state of the ground.
Here are my thoughts on the televised races.
Kempton
1:32
Just 7 runners will go to post for this class 3 handicap chase - and the race wouldn’t look out of place on a Wednesday at Ludlow (no disrespect to Ludlow !)
It’s a tight looking contest - and it will not be a major surprise, whichever runner comes home in front.
Champagne Court heads the market on his return to fences, following a last time out win over hurdles at Exeter.
Based on that victory, a mark of 130 looks exploitable - but whether he will be able to translate his form back to fences, remains to be seen.
Kap Auteuil has won 5 of his last 6 races - which is impressive, however you look at it !
His 2 most recent wins, have both appeared a touch fortunate.
However, he’s managed to get his head in front where it matters - and in truth, I suspect this race won’t take much winning.
The booking of 5lb claimer Angus Cheleda, seems to signify intent with Foxboro - and he’s certainly handicapped to be right in the mix.
He ran well on his most recent start when narrowly beaten at Wincanton - and looks to have a solid chance.
Fanzio will need to improve for tomorrows step up in trip - but that’s far from impossible.
Whilst Falco Blitz is dropping back in trip, having failed to stay 3 miles on his seasonal return at Bangor.
He’s another who should go well - particularly if he gets an uncontested lead (which he may do).
Locks Corner has been badly out of form - but is now handicapped to win.
He will be running from a mark 10lb lower than when successful at Stratford in May - and 4lb lower than when winning over tomorrows course and distance, just over a year ago.
If the money comes for him, I would be inclined to take the hint !
Twenty Twenty is making his seasonal debut, so his fitness has to be taken on trust.
However, he is closely matched with Foxboro on running at Plumpton last January - and he gets into tomorrows race off a feather weight.
2:05
Only 4 will go to post for this - which is a particularly poor turn out for a race worth £45K to the winner.
All 4 are reasonable performers - but none are outstanding - and there is question mark (or 2 !) over each of them…
Mister Fisher is the early favourite - even tho he has failed to complete the course on 3 of his last 4 races !
In fairness, they were all grade 1 contests - and he has run much better the last twice he has dropped below the highest level.
He was impressive when winning the Peterborough chase at Cheltenham, just over a year ago; and also ran well when runner up to Frodon at Sandown, on the final day of last season.
Despite his recent form figures, he’s the right favourite…
Eldorado Allen has the best recent form - courtesy of a win in the Haldon Gold cup and a third place in this seasons Peterborough chase.
The issue with him, is that he’s probably the least talented member of the field - yet has to concede weight to all of his rivals, apart from Mister Fisher.
Rouge Vif is quite interesting on his second run for Paul Nichols.
He was a decent performer for Harry Whittington - but there’s an expectation he’ll be able to step up on that.
The big question mark with him, is the trip.
He’s known as a strong travelling 2 miler - so Nichols will need to re-invent him, if he’s going to stay tomorrows 2m4f trip.
It’s also not obvious where the pace will come from tomorrow - so that could help or hinder him (depending on whether he settles).
Defi du Seuil completes the quartet.
At his prime, he would have hacked up in this (particularly receiving weight from a couple of his rivals) - but it’s 2 years since we saw him at his prime.
He’s been a big disappointment on his last 3 runs - and there must be a chance that he’s gone at the game.
Hopefully that’s not the case - but he would be a hard one to back, based on his recent efforts.
2:40
A significant increase in prize money has resulted in a very strong field being declared for this years Lanzarote…
Maries Rock now heads the betting, following sustained support throughout the week (presumably caused by George suggesting her, in his ante-post thread :) )
She has always been considered a good horse - but had put in a series of disappointing efforts prior to bouncing back to form last time.
That was when upped in trip at Kempton, over Christmas.
She won that day, like a horse back at the top of its game - and whilst she received a 9lb rating rise for that effort, she may well be capable of defying it.
She has been joined at the head of the betting by Green Book.
He’s won his last 2 races - and his defeat of Chti Balko at Haydock in December, is a solid piece of form.
He will be running from an 8lb higher mark tomorrow - and it will be a completely different test.
However, it’s impossible to get a proper handle on how good he is - and he may well be up to the challenge.
Gelino Bello has been beaten by Blazing Khal on his 2 most recent starts.
However, that one is the ante-post favourite for the Albert Bartlett at the Cheltenham festival.
As a consequence, Gellino Bello may not be badly handicapped on an opening mark of 138 - only time will tell…
Up for Parol is interesting, following his last time out win at Haydock.
He’s been raised 6lb for that - but it’s solid form and he’s an improving sort.
It’s a similar story with Quinto do Mar.
He scored twice early in the season, before getting beaten on his most recent start at Cheltenham.
His last run would need to be ignored - but prior to that, he had looked a big improver…
Ch’tibello is a completely different type.
He won the County hurdle at the 2019 Cheltenham festival - and will run tomorrow off a mark 4lb lower.
He’s now 11 - and appears to be in decline.
However, he has shown distinct promise in his 2 runs this season, and the handicapper has certainly given him a chance.
Monte Cristo was really impressive when winning over course and distance last December - and whilst he’s not matched that effort in 3 subsequent runs, there have been excuses.
If he’s back to his best, he would certainly have a chance off a mark just 6lb higher.
Call me Lord is a class act - and he’s definitely been given a chance by the handicapper.
He finished fifth in the grade 1 stayers hurdle at Aintree in the spring - and based on that form, a mark of 144 is lenient.
William Henry finished behind Call me Lord in that race - but won the 2018 running of the Lanzarote.
That was off a 6lb higher mar than he races from tomorrow - and whilst he is now 12, he is also handicapped to go very close.
3:15
Caribean Boy heads the weights and the early betting for this…
Arguably that’s a little odd, as he’s lost his last 6 races - and only shown glimpses of ability.
However, the suspicion remains that he’s a very good horse - given the right conditions - and he may well get the ‘right’ conditions tomorrow…
Certainly the step up to 3 miles on decent ground, looks a good move - whilst I suspect he’s a horse who will always be better in a relatively small field.
It’s not hard to think that he’s a fair bit better than his current mark of 145 - and tomorrow could be the day that he proves it…
Smart Wild stepped up to 3 miles on his most recent outing and ran a fair race to finish third at Ludlow.
He’s run well at Kempton in the past - and his current mark of 131, is just a pound higher than the mark he won from a year ago.
He’s certainly got a chance.
In contrast to the 2 market leaders, Kittys Lights best form has been over longer trips.
He was unlucky not to win last seasons B365 chase over 3m5f - and whilst he has shown decent form over 3 miles, the feeling is that he would be better over further.
A Toi Phil is interesting…
Previously trained by Gordon Elliott in Ireland, he made his debut for Gary Moore, just over a year ago.
He’s only run 3 times for Moore - and despite showing promise on each occasion, now finds himself on a mark 12lb lower than when he first arrived.
In fairness, he is now 12 - so could be in decline.
However, whether the rapid decline in his rating reflect the decline in his ability, is a different matter…
Strictlyadancer notched up an early season hat-trick, before disappointing last time at Sandown.
That may simply have been down to connections going to the well once too often - and it wouldn’t be a great surprise if he were to bounce back to form, following a 6 week break…
Warwick
1:18
Most of the Warwick card is a little under-whelming - and that’s certainly the case with this race…
Just 4 will go to post - which again, is a poor turnout for a relatively valuable contest.
Brave Seasca heads the early betting - and it’s hard to disagree with that, on the back of comprehensive wins in his 2 most recent starts.
He bolted up at Warwick, at the beginning of December - before following up at Ascot, just 8 days later.
He has been given a 16lb rating rise for the 2 wins - but that seems justified.
He will be stepping up in class tomorrow - but he could well be up to the task.
Not Available looks his biggest danger.
He’s won his 2 most recent starts - and finished ahead of Brave Seasca on his run prior to that, at Chepstow.
On that form, he should easily beat Brave Seasca - but I’ll be surprised if it works out quite like that…
That said, Not Available has shown a good attitude in both of his recent victories - and is unlikely to go down without a fight…
Sky Pirate won the corresponding race 12 moths ago - but will be 12lb higher in the handicap tomorrow - and that’s likely to stop him from doubling up.
Whilst Fast Buck still seems to be trying to find his level, having transferred to Dan Skelton from Paul Nichols, at the beginning of this season.
1:50
5 will go to post for this - but if anything, it is less competitive than the previous race.
Threeunderthrufive has won his last 3 races and looked a decent staying novice in the process.
He will have to concede 5lb to his rivals tomorrow - but based on official ratings, he is at least 9lb superior to all of them, so he really should be up to the job.
He’s only beaten a total of 9 horses so far this season - but that tends to be the nature of novice chases in the UK…
I suspect he will beat another 4 tomorrow - and confirm his place in one of the novice staying races at the Cheltenham festival.
Official ratings suggest that Doyen Breed is the one most likely to follow him home - and I’d be inclined to agree with that.
He’s taken well to chasing: winning on his debut at Hexham and then finishing runner up to Bushypark at Kelso.
It’s hardly top class novice form - but he has scope for further improvement - and his trainer, Sandy Thomson, tends not to tilt at windmills…
If the ground had been heavy, then Mint Condition would have been of interest.
He finished an unlucky second in the graded hurdle race on this card last season and has plenty of ability.
However, he is also at his best when conditions are very testing - and that’s unlikely to be the case tomorrow.
2:25
Whilst it’s impossible to be sure, my feeling is that Surrey Quest has been put in too short for this…
He’s won his last 2 races - but they were both ordinary novice events - and he wasn’t particularly fancied for either of them.
He was impressive last time at Doncaster - but the favourite disappointed badly, so it’s hard to know what he beat.
We’ll certainly learn more about him tomorrow - but I couldn’t support him at around 2/1…
Party Business has stronger form.
He won a fair novice event at Ascot - and was still in with every chance last time, when falling at the second last in the the grade 1 Challow hurdle.
Obviously, there’s always a risk, backing a horse following a heavy fall - but at least he proved (or was in the process of proving), that he is up to this grade.
Stag Horn is a very good horse on the flat - and he made a successful transition to hurdles when winning at Hereford, last month.
It was a weak race - and he was expected to win - but it will have given him valuable hurdling experience and he can’t be dismissed.
Viva Lavilla ran a good race on his most recent start, when runner up to Lossiemouth at Sandown.
He was comfortably beaten by the winner (who himself disappointed next time, in the Challow hurdle) - but it was a grade 2 race, so like Party Business, he has proved his ability to be competitive in graded company.
Gentleman at Arms was an impressive winner at Huntingdon on his most recent start.
The form of the race leaves a bit to be desired - but he hacked up and certainly justified a try at this higher level.
3:00
Gericault Roque and Corach Rambler stand out in this, as young horses on an upward curve.
Despite not yet having won over fences, the former has looked very progressive this season, when notching up a series of near misses !
He finished third on his chasing debut at Wetherby; before going one place better at Chepstow.
He again finished runner up on his most recent start at Newbury - but lost nothing in finishing runner up to the rapidly improving Saint Palias.
He comfortably beat the rest of the field that day - and a 6lb rise for his efforts isn’t overly harsh.
He looks likely to improve for a step up to a marathon trip - and appears to be the right favourite.
Corach Rambler has a much better strike rate, having won 2 of his 3 starts over fences.
He won a decent novice handicap at Cheltenham on his most recent outing - and whilst an 8lb rise for that win means he will have to shoulder top weight tomorrow, he still must have a very good chance.
Paddleyourowncanoe will be having his second start for Dan Skelton - and his first for him over fences.
He was a fair horse for Colin Tizzard - but there must a chance that Skelton will manage to unlock some improvement.
If he does, then he is handicapped to go very close.
Notachance won the corresponding race last year - and gets to run tomorrow off precisely the same mark.
That’s because he has run poorly on his 4 subsequent starts - though he did do a little better on his most recent one.
If a first time visor fully rekindles the flame, then he is clearly handicapped to run a very big race.
Eclair Surf is interesting, having run a good race last time, behind subsequent Welsh National winner Iwilldoit.
I really fancied him for a race at Cheltenham on New Years day - but he was withdrawn from that.
This looks a stronger contest - but assuming he is back in top form, then I would expect him to run well.
3:35
This is a bizarre race !
It’s a qualifier in the Pertemps series - and the first 6 home tomorrow, will qualify for the final at the Cheltenham festival.
However, only 7 horses have been declared - so all but the last one home will be able to run in the final !
These races tend to be tricky at the best of times - as there is often a race on for sixth place. However in this race, it might be possible to be beaten miles - and still finish sixth (if one of the runners falls, or is pulled up, for instance).
Suffice to say, it doesn’t feel like a race that can be tackled with a straight bat…
Based on current ratings, Riggs is the only horse in tomorrows field who is not currently rated high enough to get a run in the final.
As a consequence, he is the horse who needs to win !
Most of the others will want to avoid winning (or even finishing too close to the winner), as that will improve their chance of winning the final (assuming that’s their aim).
Riggs has every chance based on form - and provided he’s strong in the betting, he is by far the most likely race winner.
Alaphilippe looks his biggest danger.
He was a decent novice last season - and although his current rating of 140 would get him into the final, there is a chance that connections might choose to take a different path.
The other 5 runners all look like Pertemps possibles, who would benefit from a few pounds off their ratings before March !
This could end up a bit of a farce, with Riggs coming home 30 lengths clear of his nearest rival !
It will certainly be interesting to see how it pans out…
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