Best bets
Cheltenham2:00
Alandam 0.5pt win BSP (ideally bet into the live market, with a target price of 6/1)
Musselburgh
2:10
Christopher Wood 0.5pt win BSP (ideally bet into the live market, with a target price of 5/1)
2:40
Nietzsche 0.5pt win 13/2
Cheltenham
2:00
Coole Cody 2 units win CEP 8.6 FP 8
Kauto Riko 1 unit win CEP 21 FP 17
Riders onthe Storm 1 unit win CEP 14 FP 13
3:10
Stormy Ireland 3 units win CEP 6 FP 6
Musselburgh
2:10
Ana Bunina 1 unit win CEP 10 FP 8
2:00
Coole Cody 2 units win CEP 8.6 FP 8
Kauto Riko 1 unit win CEP 21 FP 17
Riders onthe Storm 1 unit win CEP 14 FP 13
3:10
Stormy Ireland 3 units win CEP 6 FP 6
Musselburgh
2:10
Ana Bunina 1 unit win CEP 10 FP 8
First things first: Happy new year to you all !!
Now on to the business of the day..!
As I’m sure most of you will have picked up, this morning was very frustrating (again !).
It started when my only early bet, Eclair Surf, was declared a NR, half an hour after I’d suggested it (an infected hoof, apparently).
But then continued, when the bookmakers stubbornly refused to push of the prices of a couple of the other horses I fancied, so that they were close to exchange prices…
It really doesn’t seem fair: I wait until the markets have matured, before I tip.
By that time, all the fancy prices have gone - and yet I still get offered prices way below what they should be in a ‘fair’ market.
Alnadam traded at between 7.6 and 8, for 2 hours on BF - yet was only available at 6/1 with B365 - 5/1 with the majority of bookmakers - and 9/2 in places !
And that’s in the biggest betting race of the day.
It’s not right - and simply, we have no chance of making a profit, it we take those prices.
I do fancy him - and Christopher Wood (for whom it was a similar situation) - so I’m keen to tip them both.
However, their prices simply can’t go much lower than the current bookmaker prices, so I’ll settle at BSP.
I don’t want to be encouraging you all to take BSP - as that will also be suppressed if I do - but hopefully most of you will be able to beat the ‘target’ price in the live markets.
It’s an area I suspect I’ll be forced to re-visit (as it’s happened numerous time already this season) - but I’ll save that for another day.
Here’s the rationale behind the bets I eventually settled on…
Cheltenham
It was a real blow to see Eclair Surf withdrawn from the 12:50 - as I fancied him quite strongly and felt he was a good price.
With him out of the race, I no longer have a particularly strong view.
Destinee Royale is probably the one I like most - assuming the ground is soft.
However, she has gone plenty short enough in the betting (around 4/1).
Newtide is moderately interesting at a price - tho the fact that David Bass is riding elsewhere, makes me think that he will probably need the run.
In the 1:25, whilst I can’t bring myself to side with L’Homme Presse, I’m not keen on opposing him either !
I suspect he’s the best horse in the race - but he’s making a quick reappearance following his win at Ascot; whilst it remains to be seen how he copes with Cheltenham.
The Glancing Queen is the solid option - but there’s nothing in her price.
They look the pair to focus on - but also head the betting - so it has to be a watching race.
Provided the ground is genuinely soft, I think Alnadam will take a lot of beating in the 2:00.
He’s been layed out for the race (or at least, a very similar race !) - and his form is extremely strong.
It’s hard to see many negatives - other than the fact he’s fav…
As luck is always required in these kind of race, I think it is also worth covering the main dangers for the Matrix.
Coole Cody looks sure to run another big race - and sets the standard; whilst Riders onthe Storm and Kauto Riko are both interesting, at much bigger prices.
I can’t see an angle into the 2:35 - so it’s probably a race best swerved…
Pileon looks the most solid option - but a price of around 6/1, is about right.
Tamar Bridge is a possible improver; as is Botox Has - whilst plenty of those at big prices can be given half chances.
Whatsupwithyou was moderately tempting at around 20; whilst I’m amazed to see Dolphin Square out at 30 on the exchanges. He really shouldn’t be as big as that (even allowing for his jockey !)
I was quite tempted to make Stormy Island a Best bet in the 3:10.
She has every chance at the weights - and is likely to get an uncontested lead (mainly because nothing will be able to go fast enough to challenge her !)
It’s likely that she will still be leading rounding the home turn - the question is whether she will last up the hill…
She might - or she might get run down by a few of her rivals.
On balance, I figured a decent sized play on the Matrix was the best way of handling things.
If she does get caught, then I suspect Brewin’upasotrm is the one most likely to win (but he is also the favourite).
Musselburgh
I’ve not got a strong view on the 1:40 race.
I was initially with Geromino - but then started to drift towards Kavanaghs Cross.
However the pair of them head the market - so there’s no obvious angle there.
More than that, Strong Glance has to be a danger - along with a couple of others.
In short, it was an easy enough race to leave alone…
The opening 8/1 on Christopher Wood in the 2:10 was never going to last - the question was simply, what price would he be by the time I was able to tip…
I was hoping for 6/1 - but would have accepted 5/1 - and that is the price he should have been (and was on the exchanges).
However, the bookmakers wouldn’t push him out beyond 4/1…
In truth, I think that could be a fair price - tho I wouldn’t expect it to get any shorter.
Tommys Oscar will have his work cut out to beat him; and Anna Bunina is actually the one I fear most. However, she has a preference for decent ground, so may not run.
I think she is worth covering on the Matrix, just in case - as if she is taken out, we’ll get our money back.
The 2:50 looks a very open race, in which all 5 runners can be given a chance.
Amour de Nuit is the right favourite - but 2/1 is plenty short enough.
Nietzsche is the value play.
He’s got plenty of talent - and is well handicapped.
There is a slight doubt concerning the trip - but with just the 5 runners, there is a chance that the race will get tactical.
If that does happen, then it could well play into Nietzsches hands…
Now on to the business of the day..!
As I’m sure most of you will have picked up, this morning was very frustrating (again !).
It started when my only early bet, Eclair Surf, was declared a NR, half an hour after I’d suggested it (an infected hoof, apparently).
But then continued, when the bookmakers stubbornly refused to push of the prices of a couple of the other horses I fancied, so that they were close to exchange prices…
It really doesn’t seem fair: I wait until the markets have matured, before I tip.
By that time, all the fancy prices have gone - and yet I still get offered prices way below what they should be in a ‘fair’ market.
Alnadam traded at between 7.6 and 8, for 2 hours on BF - yet was only available at 6/1 with B365 - 5/1 with the majority of bookmakers - and 9/2 in places !
And that’s in the biggest betting race of the day.
It’s not right - and simply, we have no chance of making a profit, it we take those prices.
I do fancy him - and Christopher Wood (for whom it was a similar situation) - so I’m keen to tip them both.
However, their prices simply can’t go much lower than the current bookmaker prices, so I’ll settle at BSP.
I don’t want to be encouraging you all to take BSP - as that will also be suppressed if I do - but hopefully most of you will be able to beat the ‘target’ price in the live markets.
It’s an area I suspect I’ll be forced to re-visit (as it’s happened numerous time already this season) - but I’ll save that for another day.
Here’s the rationale behind the bets I eventually settled on…
Cheltenham
It was a real blow to see Eclair Surf withdrawn from the 12:50 - as I fancied him quite strongly and felt he was a good price.
With him out of the race, I no longer have a particularly strong view.
Destinee Royale is probably the one I like most - assuming the ground is soft.
However, she has gone plenty short enough in the betting (around 4/1).
Newtide is moderately interesting at a price - tho the fact that David Bass is riding elsewhere, makes me think that he will probably need the run.
In the 1:25, whilst I can’t bring myself to side with L’Homme Presse, I’m not keen on opposing him either !
I suspect he’s the best horse in the race - but he’s making a quick reappearance following his win at Ascot; whilst it remains to be seen how he copes with Cheltenham.
The Glancing Queen is the solid option - but there’s nothing in her price.
They look the pair to focus on - but also head the betting - so it has to be a watching race.
Provided the ground is genuinely soft, I think Alnadam will take a lot of beating in the 2:00.
He’s been layed out for the race (or at least, a very similar race !) - and his form is extremely strong.
It’s hard to see many negatives - other than the fact he’s fav…
As luck is always required in these kind of race, I think it is also worth covering the main dangers for the Matrix.
Coole Cody looks sure to run another big race - and sets the standard; whilst Riders onthe Storm and Kauto Riko are both interesting, at much bigger prices.
I can’t see an angle into the 2:35 - so it’s probably a race best swerved…
Pileon looks the most solid option - but a price of around 6/1, is about right.
Tamar Bridge is a possible improver; as is Botox Has - whilst plenty of those at big prices can be given half chances.
Whatsupwithyou was moderately tempting at around 20; whilst I’m amazed to see Dolphin Square out at 30 on the exchanges. He really shouldn’t be as big as that (even allowing for his jockey !)
I was quite tempted to make Stormy Island a Best bet in the 3:10.
She has every chance at the weights - and is likely to get an uncontested lead (mainly because nothing will be able to go fast enough to challenge her !)
It’s likely that she will still be leading rounding the home turn - the question is whether she will last up the hill…
She might - or she might get run down by a few of her rivals.
On balance, I figured a decent sized play on the Matrix was the best way of handling things.
If she does get caught, then I suspect Brewin’upasotrm is the one most likely to win (but he is also the favourite).
Musselburgh
I’ve not got a strong view on the 1:40 race.
I was initially with Geromino - but then started to drift towards Kavanaghs Cross.
However the pair of them head the market - so there’s no obvious angle there.
More than that, Strong Glance has to be a danger - along with a couple of others.
In short, it was an easy enough race to leave alone…
The opening 8/1 on Christopher Wood in the 2:10 was never going to last - the question was simply, what price would he be by the time I was able to tip…
I was hoping for 6/1 - but would have accepted 5/1 - and that is the price he should have been (and was on the exchanges).
However, the bookmakers wouldn’t push him out beyond 4/1…
In truth, I think that could be a fair price - tho I wouldn’t expect it to get any shorter.
Tommys Oscar will have his work cut out to beat him; and Anna Bunina is actually the one I fear most. However, she has a preference for decent ground, so may not run.
I think she is worth covering on the Matrix, just in case - as if she is taken out, we’ll get our money back.
The 2:50 looks a very open race, in which all 5 runners can be given a chance.
Amour de Nuit is the right favourite - but 2/1 is plenty short enough.
Nietzsche is the value play.
He’s got plenty of talent - and is well handicapped.
There is a slight doubt concerning the trip - but with just the 5 runners, there is a chance that the race will get tactical.
If that does happen, then it could well play into Nietzsches hands…
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