There’s a lot of rain forecast to fall over the next 24 hours - and whilst the ground at Sandown and Wincanton, is currently described as ‘soft’ (roughly speaking), I suspect it will be ‘heavy’ by the time racing gets under-way…
Certainly, that’s the assumption I’ve made when looking through the cards - so if anyone has reason to think I might be wrong, please shout up !
Whilst tomorrows racing isn’t the best ever, both of the cards are reasonable - the Sandown one in particular - and I’ll be surprised if I can’t find a few bets (or at least find a few horses that I would like to bet - provided we can get prices !).
Here are my thoughts on the best races on the 2 cards (most of which will be shown on ITV).
Sandown
1:15
I was kind of hoping that Farinet might get missed in this…
He was pulled up on his seasonal debut - and has to carry 12st2lb (which is a big ask).
However, the bookmakers have latched on to the positives…
He was a good winner over course and distance, on his penultimate start - when he also proved that he can handle soft ground.
He’s now 6lb higher in the ratings - but this is an easier race.
I suspect he will take a lot of beating (the weight he has to carry is the main concern) - but the early odds reflect that.
Part of the problem is the lack of realistic opponents.
Kilbrook is the obvious alternative.
He is relatively unexposed and won on his chasing debut at Carlisle in October.
He’s only 4lb higher tomorrow - but his subsequent absence is a little off-putting - whilst he has never previously run on heavy ground.
It’s a similar story with Goa Lil, who is also unproven on heavy ground.
Redzor and Red Happy are both quite interesting - but come with big risks.
The former could be very well handicapped - and should handle the ground - but hasn’t run for nearly 2 years; whilst the latter should also handle the ground - but will be making his UK debut (having previously been trained in France).
the market is likely to prove the best guide to the chances of both of them.
Chef D’Equipe won the corresponding race - 4 years ago !
That was also on heavy ground - and off a mark 7lb higher than he runs off tomorrow.
A lot of water has gone under the bridge since then - and a switch to hunter chases last season, suggests his powers are maybe on the wane.
However the handicapper has certainly played ball and given him a chance if enough of the old ability, remains…
1:50
Gunsight Ridge has been installed quite a short priced early favourite for this - on the back of his second place to L’Homme Presse at Exeter.
The winner has subsequently won twice - and is now rated nearly 2 stone higher.
Clearly Gunsight Ridge was attempting the impossible that day - and he did finished 10 lengths ahead of the third horse.
However it may just have been a weak race - and Gunsight Ridge has to run off a 3lb higher mark tomorrow.
I’d also have some concerns about him dropping back half a mile in trip - accepting that the soft ground is likely to put an emphasis on stamina.
Numitor will have no issue with trip or ground - and looks a very solid option.
He finished a highly creditable second to Il Ridoto last time - but lost little in defeat that day.
Furthermore, he was running in a relatively strong race, so the subsequent rating rise is justified.
He will go from the front tomorrow - and it will take a good performance to beat him.
Moonlighter also liked to race prominently - tho he will probably be happy to take a lead from Numitor.
He won over course and distance in February - and somehow runs off a 3lb lower mark tomorrow.
He’s only run 3 times since - and whilst he has been well beaten on each occasion, there have been valid excuses.
I can see no reason why he won’t run well tomorrow - and he certainly enters calculations…
Up the Straight is interesting, dropped to the minimum trip.
He has some decent form over half a mile further - but I suspect he will appreciate stepping back in distance.
He’s another one who is potentially well handicapped - and therefore worthy of serious consideration.
Monsieur Lecoq has run poorly the last twice - but prior to that, should have won a similar race at Ascot.
He runs off the same mark tomorrow - so clearly has a chance.
Bun Doran also has a chance - provided he can handle the heavy ground.
I put him up last time, when he ran a fair race behind Editeur de Gite - and in the right circumstances, I could certainly be interested in him again.
The question is whether tomorrow will provide the right test…
Paddys Poem completes the line up - and whilst he will be facing quite a challenge on his seasonal debut, if he’s fully tuned he couldn’t be completely dismissed.
2:25
According to the betting, Constitution Hill is already home and hosed in this…
He’s been installed a 2/5 shot on the back on a very impressive win over course and distance, at the beginning of last month.
He powered away from the highly regarded Might I that day - and looked a top class horse in the making.
The time was also good - so what’s not to like..?
Well firstly, it’s a single piece of form - and it was a relatively weak race run on relatively quick ground.
That’s not to say he can’t build on it and win again tomorrow - it’s just that I don’t think he should be trading at such a short price.
For a start, he faces 4 potentially decent rivals - but more than that, tomorrows ground could prove to be a real leveller…
If he is turned over, then Shallwehaveonemore looks the one most likely to inflict defeat.
He finished runner up on his only hurdle start to date - but showed a lot of promise that day and is clearly held in high regard.
Gary Moore loves nothing more than a Sandown winner - so he’s pretty much guaranteed to be spot on tomorrow.
Mr Glass, Jetoile and Datslarightgino have all got significant potential; whilst it’s very interesting that Dr Newland is throwing Whizz Kid into grade 1 company on his hurdling debut (I doubt he will win - but I suspect he is one to keep a close eye on).
Ultimately this comes down to whether you are with or against Constitution Hill.
I do think he’s the most likely race winner - but I also think he is a fair bit too short at the current 2/5…
3:00
This is probably the most interesting betting race of the day - though the pair at the top of the market look particularly strong…
Aso is a class act.
Runner up to Frodon in the 2019 Ryanair chase - he managed to finished eighth in last seasons Gold Cup.
Whilst it’s true that he’s not the force he once was, his last time out second to Blaklion in a very strong veterans qualifier, is just about the best recent form on offer.
3 miles in heavy ground are not his ideal conditions - but he still might have sufficient class to overcome them.
Final Nudge is the other market leader.
The trip and ground should be fine for him - and I suspect he has been targeted at this race.
He finished third in last seasons Midlands national - and was a good winner at Warwick on his seasonal return.
At 13, he’s one of the oldest members of the field - but there has been no obvious indication that he’s in significant decline.
Away from the pair, it’s not an easy race to assess.
Wandrin Star and Rolling Dylan could both be given chances - though neither will want the ground too soft.
The Kings Writ will have no issue with conditions - it’s just a question of whether he is good enough to win a race of this nature.
I would expect Dancing Shadow to have a good go from the front - even though he is likely to face competition for the lead, from the likes of Valadom, Indy Five and Dashing Perk.
Whilst a strong pace would suit Prime Venture - as this will be a minimum trip for him. He will also appreciate very soft ground and looks to be the most interesting outsider in the field.
3:35
This looks a tricky little race…
Hermes Boy is the obvious one, on his handicap debut.
He was a big eye catcher at Worcester in October - and has since finished runner up at Bangor and won at Exeter.
He’s been given an opening mark of 124 - but that could be very lenient.
I Like to Move it, is rated 138 - and Hermes Boy looked as if he could have run him close in the Worcester race.
If that is the case, then Hermes Boy could have a stone in hand of his mark (along with scope for further improvement !).
The big unknown is the ground.
He’s not run previously on anything worse than soft - so how he will handled very heavy at Sandown, is anyones guess…
Mack the Man will handle it.
He arguably put in a career best performance when winning in the heavy over course and distance, just over 2 years ago.
He beat Protektorat and Song for Someone that day - and whilst they have taken very different paths, both have shown themselves to be high class horses.
If Mack the Man can replicate that level of form tomorrow, he will set a very high standard.
Natural History is the potential fly in the ointment.
He’s been hugely disappointing on his last 4 runs - but almost certainly has the ability to laugh at his current mark of 119.
Everything will drop right for him sooner or later - and that day could be tomorrow…
Volkova ran really well last time - and she has got a chance of at least placing; whilst McGowans Pass will love the very heavy ground (assuming that’s what he gets !).
A case can be made for Navajo Pass, on last seasons form; whilst Zambezi Fix ran very well over course and distance, on his penultimate outing.
All in all, this looks a strong race.
Wincanton
1:30
It seems a little strange to be having a class 5 race covered by the ITV cameras on a Saturday afternoon.
I’ve not spent a lot of time looking at it - though I am quite drawn to Inferno Sacree…
He’s making his handicap debut, after just 4 runs over hurdles.
He’s not shown much - but an opening mark of 93, reflects that.
The big attraction with him is that he’s a 4 year old - and therefore gets a hefty 13lb weight for age allowance from all of his rivals.
Nigel Hawke is a dab hand at exploiting this particular area - so the fact Inferno Sacree is trained by him, just adds to the appeal.
The nature of the race means that it’s not one you could every be confident about - but he could be worth a speculative play, at likely big odds.
2:05
Grey Diamond could be tough to beat in this.
He’s dropping in grade after a number of good runs in stronger races.
So far this season, he’s finished third to Amoola Gold at Ascot - and fourth to Il Ridoto at Newbury.
Both of those races were stronger than tomorrows - but he was nudged down a pound in the ratings, after each one.
He’s now on a mark of 131 - which is just 3lb higher than the mark he won from in March, when he last tackled class 3 company.
The booking of 3lb claimer Jack Tudor, even offsets that rise.
The trip is perfect - and he’ll handle the ground.
In short, he sets a high standard…
Belle de Manech was really impressive when winning over the course, on Boxing day.
That was her chasing debut, but she really took to the fences and comfortably beat Precious Eleanor.
A 10lb rating rise seems a little harsh - though in fairness, she was impressive.
Whether she can follow that up, against stronger company and over half a mile shorter, only time will tell.
Another Crick is also dropped in trip - but more significantly, dropped in the handicap.
He was rated 134, 12 months ago - and ran a good fourth at Warwick off that mark.
However, he will be running off a mark of just 122 tomorrow…
On the back of just one disappointing run, it’s hard to understand why the assessor has decided on such a drastic move - but it certainly makes Another Crick of potential interest.
The other 6 runners can all be given a chance of sorts - but equally, none of them particularly stand out.
Glajou is 8lb lower than when a disappointing fav in the race 12 months ago - and that makes him of some interest, at a big price…
2:40
This is another relatively uninspiring race, which I’ve not spent too much time on - and where it’s hard to see an angle…
Crossing the Bar is the obvious one, on his handicap debut.
He was a fair horse on the flat for Michael Stoute - and has shown promise on his 2 starts over hurdles for Philip Hobbs.
On the first of them, he finished fourth at Lingfield - and he followed that up with a third placing at Ffos Las.
It’s hard to judge the merit of the form, but an opening mark of 108 doesn’t look overly harsh - particularly for a horse who is rated 83 on the flat.
Apple Rock has shown little in 2 starts this season - but is well handicapped on his form from last year.
He was a comfortable winner off a mark of 117 at Carlisle in February - and runs off that mark again tomorrow.
He will handle the likely heavy ground - and if Ben Pauling has got him back in from, he will take a bit of beating.
Blairgowie makes his handicap debut for Nicky Henderson - and could be anything.
Like Crossing the Bar, he has finished fourth and third in is 2 hurdles starts - and the market is likely to provide the best guide to his chance.
Golden Emblem is perhaps the most interesting of those at bigger prices.
She hasn’t shown much in 3 runs this season - but finished ahead of Apple Rock, when she was sent off fav for a race at Sandown in March.
At the revised weights, it should be close between the pair of them.
3:15
This looks a very tight little contest, in which a case can be made for all bar the outsider (The Cathal Don) - though none of the cases are particularly robust !
If the race was over half a mile less, then Stolen Silver would be the clear choice.
He’s shown really good form this season, since transferring into the care of Sam Thomas - and he should handle heavy ground (assuming that’s what he gets).
However, he is unproven over 2m4f - and the ground is likely to mean that stamina will be at a premium.
If he stays the trip, he is the one to beat - but that is a concern…
It’s the right trip for Mont Des Avaloirs - but the question mark with him, concerns his resolution.
He’s also not run for over a year - and whilst he does tend to perform well fresh, the suggestion is that he’s had a problem.
Assuming he is close to 100%, he should go well - but I’m not sure I’d want to be with him, if he gets into a battle.
The worry with Killer Clown, is the ground - as I suspect he doesn’t want it bottom-less.
He looked like being a very good horse when he hacked up at Kempton, just over a year ago - but he’s disappointed a little in 4 subsequent races.
A tongue tie is applied tomorrow - and that could make a difference.
Slate House is potentially thrown in - as he finished third in this race 12 months ago off a mark 16lb higher.
He will have no issue with the ground - but has been horribly out of form and will require first time blinkers to spark him back to life.
Notre Pari isn’t as well handicapped - but is still sliding down the ratings at a fair rate.
It’s not easy to define his ideal conditions - but 2m4f on heavy ground could be them - and if they are, he’s likely to go close.
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